40/70 Benchmark

The season should def. average +NAO...I am just speaking to how favorable or unfavorable it is to steal a -NAO month or two.

Looks like August 2024 was the peak? It takes a couple of years for the solar wind to in increase enough to kick up the geomagnetic particles, which is what is the most hostile for blocking....we may sneak by with one more season that is not awful. "recent studies of seal level pressure patterns that revealed a +NAO pattern lagging solar max by approximately 2-4 years. The work of Maliniemi et al also showed that this relationship is not at all dependent on overall sunspot activity due to intra-cycle variability." Mean winter NAO index values for the four cycle phases, averaged over cycles 11 to 23. The red line represents the overall mean value of wintertime NAO (0.05). Bars represent the 95% confidence interval

It was merely making an anecdotal observation pertaining to the behavior of the PDO; nothing more. I wasn't deducing anything from it. Do I think the PDO will rise this winter? Yes...do I think that will be particulary important? No. I have already said that the PNA is likely to be more consistently negatibve than last season and that I expect the +WPO to continue. I forecast seasonal index behavior, not just weather....so the behavior of the PDO independent of the actual weather is relevent. There wasn't any emotion involved...I was simply adding a little levity to the discussion, as I so often do. But it is true that I can always discern which posts you will swarm to like an ant to spilled soda...I knew how my post would be perceived ostensibly speaking, which would prompt a replay form you.

How did I know that Bluewave's advanced optimism alarm system detected a faint modicum of hope in my post, and that he would rush to the scene to douse the flame in short order. Dude is the Darthvader of seasonal forecasting.

Very hottest part is actually the next week.

Anyone have any idea when they are going to update the MEI?

I think I recall this happening last season....the PDO bottomed out last fall as if Armageddon loomed for winter enthusiasts, and then steadily reversed throughout last winter. Obviously it will remain at least somewhat negative throughout winter, though...as it did last season.

Oh, okay...I was talking about winter.

Like I said...not as bad as this week.

Next week doesn't look as hot...dews not withstanding.

Kevin must be sprawled out nude on his lawn...laptop and syringe in hand just injecting this into his veins.

I hate summer, but I keep it real...this is the heart of due season and other then a day or two repreive such as will be observed this weekend, its pretty much unabatred dews for a good 6 weeks.

Its a charmed, Charmin life-

From tomorrow through Friday the 25th is the climo peak, but I don't think anything will be palpable in terms of sensory appeal for a good month....and by that I don't just mean necessarily "cooler", but anything dectable by the senses, whether it be simply noting a lower sun and shorter day. Same deal in winter...no one notices anything until about the 2nd week of February...in summer its August.

Never know in this "new, warmer climate"....I feel like two consecutive very dry winters will be tough to pull off...especially above anout 40 N, where we aren't so dependent upon the STJ and get more N stream action.

Agreed.

I think it will be even more moot relative to climo given the stable state of the west Pacific.

It would make sense if this were focused on the last 7-10 years or so....but four decades? the 90s, 00s and 10s were great for NE coastal snowfall. I haven't read it over, but it seems like they are exagerating the sample size to prematurely launch a west warm pool derived CC theory because they know there isn't enough data yet.

Yea, that was well forecast...I referenced it in my last blog update in June.

I don't think it really matters whether the ONI peaks at -0.4 or -0.6...other than verification purposes. Won't change anything with respect to the outlook/impending weather pattern this cold season.

I know someone posted the JJ MEI value, but any idea why it has't updated here? https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

No, next month.

It's usually time to draw the shades and hide in the AC if you hate dews from now until about first week or two of September.....this next two months are usually awful, save for a rogue pleasant day or three-

Completely agree here.

Yes, but most of the warming is in the West Pacific, which biases the hemisphere towards a cool ENSO regime.