40/70 Benchmark

2006-2007 moderate El Nino...also with -PDO like 2023-2024 and 1972-1973.

I guess I agree with him that the recent -NAO/+PNA periods haven't been producing, but I'm not sure he agrees with me that a flip in the WPO would largely remedy that...aside from some marginal events that are growing ever more difficult to tilt favorably in a warmer atmosphere. However, I think the storm track issue is largely tied to the +WPO/NAO. IOW, I'm confident we will get BM tracks if we could muster a -WPO/-NAO/+PNA.

One thing I am 100% with @bluewave on is that the west PAC holds the key to change.....we aren't going to see a great winter until that changes. But the ironic thing is that he points that out, and then in the same breath identifies past instances of -NAO/+PNA that peformed better to illustrate the point that fruitful patterns of the past are no longer producing. Well, no shit.....they were more favorable looking around the Bering Sea. Low heights in that area are killing us....it remained a constant last season, which in conjunction with the predominately +NAO is why we saw an inland storm track. I think the West Pacific warmth correlates to +WPO...we need to see that cool down, or else it really limits how effective any periods of -NAO/+PNA can be.

Wait until we near solar min and swtich back to Pac cold phse in several more years.....get an apprciably strong Modoki El Nino and we'll do just fine.

It depends on the polar domain.........I don't think we will get a lot of help there, so we'd have to hope that the extra tropical Pacific continues to transition. You probably have more leeway than the east coast, but even you would want to see a -WPO take shape.

2015-2016 was the strongest El Nino on record and 2023-2024 was during a strong cold phase PDO....this is a silly statement. Now, if you want to tell me that 2023-2024 was so much warmer than 1972-1973, and 2015-2016 than 1997-1998 due to CC, okay....but don't compare two entirely different type of El Nino evolutions. Its a lazy, ill informed approach.

Great, the climatechanger and Bluewave taking over the ENSO thread.....stand by for mass suicide attempts.

There is a lot more variance in relation to the impact of volcanic eruptions that folks realize.....depends where they are and how strong. The very strong PV of the early 90s was likely a byproduct of Pinatubo.

I agree with this.

Eh....from your area to NNE, yes....I hope to break even...def. bad for those south of me.

Clearly I understand that...I wasn't implying anything about snowfall. I simply questioned the idea that a warmer climate wouldn't lead to an increase in mositure.

I tought the same....feels like October...only reason you can tell it isn't is the Sox are playing today.

The bussiness is all her, man...I just funded it.

I turned my central air on once for a few hours on Friday night...that's it for the seasn so far.

Mostly playoff Bball and Extra Innings baseball package to track my fantasy players lol

I'm heading over the the end of June and they we call come back like second week of July. We are in the latter stages of bulding a 7 unit apartment building in Uganda that she is going to operate as an Air b&b.

I'm an indoors guy, so I am cool with it....I can get away with that right now while the family is away.

Sit inside with sports/Netflix and be comfortable.

Lets just toss data that doesn't suite our respective agendas.

Yea, he is the first person I have ever seen argue against the idea that a warmer climate has more moisture available...irregardless of the degree of warming cancelling that out.

I think its more about the orientation of the cool ENSO event than it is the QBO.

That isn't the case up here....IDK about the mid Atlantic.

I honestly am not trying to call Scott and John out....was an honest inquiry because I only look at guidance for tropical threats during the summer.

Okay...all I was looking for. The point and click reference was for Saturday. Clearly I don't pay close attention during spring and summer.

I was speaking of Saturday....what is your point?? There was supposed to this soaker through the first portion of the weekend.