40/70 Benchmark

I know most speak of "tipping" points with respect to when the current climo succumbs to CC, but I also wonder if there is a "tipping point" for when the earth's natural balancing mechanisms/cycles trigger a push back against said influences of CC....ie, maybe ultimately a flip to -AMO and +PDO is realized.

2047...I actually expected a sooner date....I think Bluewave's model had yesterday.

48.7 this AM....all just a dream soon enough-

Yea, I'm talking on a seasonal level...brief periods are easily negated by other factors...whether it be a fast jet and/or poorly positioned ridges, etc....when the vast majority of the season is +WPO it loads the dice towards failure for eastern winter enthusiasts. I agree RE the cause of the +WPO tendency.

Yes, agreed. Obviously the general warming is what it is, but I still feel like we will evetually see more variation to the WPO. I know we have talked about that and if it hasn't varied at all a few years into next dedade, then I'll need to reconsider that.

Yea, I also feel the West Pacific being drastically different is a big reasony why the -NAO was abope to produce more readily that season compared to more recent ones.

So you kind of had the right idea. There were some pretty fundamental differences from 2010-2011 beyond simply 14 years worth of GW.

I got down to 49.1...it was so refreshing.

All joking aside, I will try be more mindful of seeking clarity from you in the future before passing judgement...not that you are about my take.

Great, could you link me to your seasonal temp forecast for last winter?

I did, and you said you didn't put temp numbers out. Sounds like from what you have said that you would have forecasted that you nailed it, which is great....I but I find value in having a record to remove any trace of subjectivity or confsuion. Perhaps I am just rigid and others disagree.

The ENSO threads grow to be like 500 pages, so its really cumbersome and confusing to rely on those to disseminate seasonal thoughts. I obviously I share tidbots here, but also organize them in a thread.

Yea, this is where we disagree....I think one thread annualy from those that offer seasonal insights reduces confusion, so we agree to disagree there. To each their own...just understand that it makes "misquoting" more likely.

If preferring a single thread to organize and centralize seasonal thoughts is "ridgid", than sure...I guess. I think everyone who does seasonals does it...clears up confusion and no one is "misquoted".

I would pay for a repeat of that year.

Just one per year...that's it.

I don't agree with all of Chris' takes obviously, but I really don't see what is wrong with putting your seasonal thoughts out there to clear up any confusion. Shame he doesn't because he's probably up there with raindance as one of the best forecasters....definitely better than I am IMO. I just wish there was more clarity, that's all.

Chris, I have achieved a better understanding of the climate than I did 11 years ago and than I did even last year, which is all that matters to me. I have issued some bad forecasts, last year not being one, and the bad ones have been my most invaluable learning tools. I regret 0.0.

Cool. Quote the one with seasonal numbers. Thanks.

Precise format?? Dude, start a freaking thead and write your throughts with some numnbers in one sentence.

Nope....we agree there...and I will tell you, the neat thing about never issuing a forecast is you get to dictate how right it was.

I'm going to let you in on a little secret because sometimes even very intelligent folks like you struggle to see the obvious...you want to know a really good way to avoid being misquoted with respect to your expectations for a given season?? I know this may sound nuts, so bare with me here....issue a forecast that explicitly states your expectations along with a detailed rationale. I tried this about 11 years ago and have never looked back. Your failure to do so is what I chalk up to any confusion about what you "forecasted" in a random post on page 232 of the ENSO thread last October. Frankly, I couldn't give rat's scrotum how bad you think I look, Chris....I say that with all of the love and respect in the world, believe me. I have a wife, house, two jobs and four kids under the age of 6, but I'll try to do a better job of deducing what your theoretical winter forecast would look like based on your comments pertaining to a random seasonal model from a random post in an long scrolled thread 9 months ago. You don't want to put out a specific forecast, cool....but do me favor and get a really large mirror when it comes time to assess culpability for any confusion related to your stance after the fact. The onus if responsibility is with the forecaster, not the audience, dude. PS: "In the old days".....AKA "when we had a -WPO". Flip the WPO and its a slightly warmer version of the old days-

No, warmer and wetter than last winter is my guess.