40/70 Benchmark

UK with the same gradient we have seen for the past several years, just north of my hood....I'll remove my spleen with a pair of pliers if this happens again.

January blows

Decent snow for December on the EURO

Yes, completely buy the poleward Aleutian ridging and trough being centered to our west...this is why I said while I don't think this will be a terrible winter for most of us, I also don't expect it to be a KU cookbook, either. There are going to messy systems, both in terms of precip type and/or verying degrees of phasing failures. I do think that the EURO has things biased a bit too far to the west, though.

Yea, I expect the cold to again be centered over the northern plains and possibly GL.

The mean DM PNA value for the 4 seasons mentioned in raindance's post above is +.15, which affirms my suspicion of a variable PNA that averages near neutral this season. I don't see that huge negative values in the mean, and I think that notion that it has to be because it's a second year La Nina is every bit as dibious as that fallacy that all triple dip La Ninas have to be cold. Anticipate deeply negative PNA in the mean during the coming winter season at your own peril IMHO.

While that does look like a season that certainly won't be prohibitvely warm in the mean, that doesn't exactly scream KU snowstorms to me, either....still looks like more of an overrunning and SWFE pardigm to me. I think the window for any big fish will be later in the season.

Down to 43.3 this AM....topped out at 70.7. Already back to 48.7

This also what I am alluding to when I tell folks to not obsess over the absolute PDO value, as it's the trend that is more important.

This composite looks like a lot of my preliminary stuff. Extratropical Pacific, Polar and EMI composites.

Well, it is getting more difficult to get very cold winters in an absolute sense (against shifting climo is different)....that said, it's not as pronounced where you live as it is on the east coast.

@snowman19My guess is that while the majority of the season is -PNA, we are gong to have month that is gong to be strongly +PNA....probably coinciding with +NAO mid season before any SSW. Season probably averages pretty close to neautral with a slight hedge towards negative.

You mean +PNA?

Not sure winter averages +PNA per se, but it should be volatile.

I think that will be dependent on the stratosphere.....seeing potential for a mid winter event, which would trigger a reload.

I think you are obfuscating the PDO and WPO a bit. I think a severely +WPO does cap most of the mid atl and SNE at a near normal snowfall season....but I was referring to the PDO more in my response to you. There are plenty of severely negative PDO seasons that were very snowy in the east, but most of them are aged analogs due to the WPO, which has been biased very positive this decade by the warm pool. I don't think it needs to cool as much as you think to remain positve, but to a degree that isn't as prohibitive to wintry weather in the eastern US.

@snowman19You seem to pointing out why 2013 isn't a replica analog rather than why we can't see similar sensible weather adjusted for CC....as far as the former, I agree...no season really is; but I think the latter is entirely feasible.

I think if you want a big winter, the WPO is going to have be less severely positive than it has been....like 2017, for instance...which I believe may be the case.

First of all, I think the trend concerning the PDO is what is of most relevence with respect to sensible weather, not the absolute value. Secondly, the RONI is nearly dead-nuts on with 2013....and finally, I'm not sure the solar and statosphere differences are really that big of a deal. First of all, that was a very strongly +AO/NAO season, so that wasn't the main hemispheric driver, anyway. Additionally, I have written in great detail about how an easterly QBO near solar max isn't as hostile to episodes of high latitude blocking as some seem to think. We are probably going to see more arctic blocking than we did that year. Replica season? No....western Pacific is less favorable and CC has continued...but I see no reason why it can't be included in varuious seasonal composites, as it has been, and continues to be.

I can see in a practical sense, conversationally in an effort to convery how you feel the season will evolve, since most weather circles are privy with how each analog season behaved in terms of sensible weather. But as far as issuing a seasonal forecast, I agree 100%...my methodology is to use a composite and attempt to convey the element from each analog season that will be similar to the current season. This is important because one season may be a fantastic analog in one sense, but there are bound to be ways in which it is not..this harkens to what you were saying about the challenge in finding a replica season. Good luck-

Mirrors impact on winter storms. As a blogger, I like it....only care to write about big fish.

Another .63" today....1.85" 2 day total, 1.96" 3 day.

Yea, I'm not arguing any of that...but temps and 500mb heights are kind of a big deal. I mean, I nailed snowfall last season...but I was too warm....that can't be ignored.

Well, that is where we differ. I know in the past I have ostensibly nailed seasons, but always detract from the grade when I'm "right for the wrong reason". Agree to disagree. The forecast was wrong....it just so happen to be correct regarding low snowfall.

1.22" today.