40/70 Benchmark

Its a charmed, Charmin life-

From tomorrow through Friday the 25th is the climo peak, but I don't think anything will be palpable in terms of sensory appeal for a good month....and by that I don't just mean necessarily "cooler", but anything dectable by the senses, whether it be simply noting a lower sun and shorter day. Same deal in winter...no one notices anything until about the 2nd week of February...in summer its August.

Never know in this "new, warmer climate"....I feel like two consecutive very dry winters will be tough to pull off...especially above anout 40 N, where we aren't so dependent upon the STJ and get more N stream action.

Agreed.

I think it will be even more moot relative to climo given the stable state of the west Pacific.

It would make sense if this were focused on the last 7-10 years or so....but four decades? the 90s, 00s and 10s were great for NE coastal snowfall. I haven't read it over, but it seems like they are exagerating the sample size to prematurely launch a west warm pool derived CC theory because they know there isn't enough data yet.

Yea, that was well forecast...I referenced it in my last blog update in June.

I don't think it really matters whether the ONI peaks at -0.4 or -0.6...other than verification purposes. Won't change anything with respect to the outlook/impending weather pattern this cold season.

I know someone posted the JJ MEI value, but any idea why it has't updated here? https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

No, next month.

It's usually time to draw the shades and hide in the AC if you hate dews from now until about first week or two of September.....this next two months are usually awful, save for a rogue pleasant day or three-

Completely agree here.

Yes, but most of the warming is in the West Pacific, which biases the hemisphere towards a cool ENSO regime.

It's safe to say everything correlates to La Niña in this "new, warmer climate".

Which part do you want me to elaborate on?

Yea, I expect a step back from last year in the extra tropical Pacific before a more concerted and consistent recovery takes place, thereafter.

I think he strongly favors a 2013-2014 like impending winter season and is thus basically rip and reading the 2013 troipical output. I think there already is and is going to be a more established cool ENSO pardigm than evident that year.

I'll def take the over on Phily's numbers.

I think you guys need to be leery of a late surge in ace from intense home brew and/or GOM systems...it can catch up quickly, though it is tougher without the long-trackers. When a system does encounter a favorable upper level pocket, the entire basin is undisturbed....

Nothing they say is outlandish or patently incorrect.....but IMHO, they tend to seek avenues to cold/snow. For instance, notice they make no mention of being near or just after solar max, which is a pretty strong counter argument to the presented evidence for a very weak PV. I found the info about specific areas of sea ice favoring weaker (stronger) PV interesting...the QBO relationship is common sense amongsts weather circles, but I really didn't care for the weak cool ENSO/weak polar vortex association....that speaks more to how strongly intense cool ENSO events favor a stronger PV IMHO....weaker ENSO just means that other extra tropical influences will drive the bus.

I used to follow them closely, but really not impressed....they have a low-key cold bias IMHO.

An inch or two of snowfall is basically noise...

Typo..yea.

Yea, I know it happens, but its still eyebrow raising for me....even in winter it can happen. I was floored in Dec 2003 when I had like 11", and I drove like 5 miles southeast and there was over 2'...was nuts and infuriating. I also remember a hell of a hail storm driviing through Reading, MA when I was a kid, and then we got home in Wilmington, just over the line, and hardly a trace.

Agreed...but I did think it was cool for my gage to have nothing in it when you had a downpour...even during the summer, our weather is usally pretty similar.