40/70 Benchmark

@bluewaveI'm not sure it's entirely fair to use data back to 1895 when determining what constitutes cold in our contemporary climate.....clearly all that was implied was that last year was "colder" relative to the current climo base. No one argued it would have been cold using older climo. The point is it took more than merely a "mismatch month" to be even near normal using the 1991-2020 climo base. Citing how it ranked in history to data back to the 1800s seems like a deflection to me. No one is arguing against GW....the argument is that last season was colder than expected relative to modern standards, which ironically enough, tacitly acknowledges climate change. I feel like it will be helpful for you to simply lay out specific seasonal temp ranges for winter per 1991-2020 climo during the fall if you want to remove any ambiguity like this after the fact. Pointing out how the season ranked back to 1895 to defend your nebulous forecast seems less than ideal and only likely to further obfuscate.

This is what I a saying only from a different angle. The internet is a conduit for raw, visceral, emotional responses that are more tempered when you are staring someone in the face...so in a sense, it is more genuine, which is not always conducive to entirely constructive dialogue....this is why social media has devolved into such a cesspool. We tend to edit our responses to remove some of the emotion more easily when looking someone in the eye...that emotional threshold at which we lose the filter is much higher in person than it is in the internet. Regardless, some people have greater degrees of emotional regulation, which is true on both the internet and in person...just that said threshold will always be lower in a given individual behind the cyber-vale of anonymity. Obviously a forum like this is a step up from social media because many of us have known one another for decades and have in fact met in person, which alters the dynamic a bit, but still different from actual face-face exchanges.

It's just easier to dehumanize someone when you don't look them in their eyes....you respond to a post and lose sight of the fact that there is a person on the other end of the the keyboard....samy dynamic with road rage....people dehumanize the other driver and flip.

He had an insight that there tends to be a mismatch period from the prevailing MC forcing when the MJO is amplified in the MC during the month of October, as it was last year.

I have pointed that out a few times and he has never addressed it. He keeps mentioning how he predicted the mismatch period, but that wasn't simply a mismatch period....it was just a colder pattern that lasted well over a month. I didn't foresee that, either....I also was looking for a mismatch month, but it was more than that...otherwise it would have been much above normal like the last several seasons, but it was near normal.

My heart weeps for you...

Its much easier to be abrasive online because its a much more impersonal mode of communication.

I don't think anyone would mistake last winter for a "great season"....the storm track still blew dead rats due in large part to the west PAC....I know I have said this before, but I would honestly take one of the warmer/wetter recent winters over last year. 1/7/2024 blew anything I saw last winter out of the water. 2' of snow is still awesome to witness regardless of how quickly it melts....a 6" stale pack just doesn't do as much for me unless its the holidays.

So sorry, John.

Where is this site at?

Not happening. Agreed.

I don't think deriving value from a 12 year old analog and remaining mindful that the world has warmed are mutually exclusive. The sample size is small enough as it is-

The globe has warmed some since 2014....but lets not talk like its some far away galaxy...part of the reason it wasn't as cold is the WPO. I am also willing to bet some deep southern areas were snowier than they were that season...I know many northern areas were not as snowy due to precipitation, not temps...so while obviously a replica season (including -WPO) wouldn't be as cold, nor would said cold be as expansive, I think it could still be as snowy and perahps snowier in some spots.

Beat ya for once lol

I could have sworn 2021-2022 was a mismatch season...interesting that we still managed a mismatch period minus the amplified October MJO....I could certainly see something like that occurring this season. I agree this season will probably be warmer with a more consistently negative PNA, yet still manage more snowfall.

Probably warm ENSO for 2026-2027.

"40/70....I am your father" (breathes heavily)

@bluewaveSeriously, though....I do recall telling you last season that I expected your October MJO indicator to be amplified and favorable and I do expect that again, so we'll see.

I don't want to sound too optimistic because Bluewave will be on my door step.

Yea, I think we will have some servicable stretches...but overall the west-urine pool does of course remain.

@ORH_wxmanWas actually metioning the other day how this year kind of resembles some of the older cool ENSO events in that there is more cooler water near the west coast than in the recent ones.

Jinx. I will add that JMA essentially ENSO neutral, too....slight hedge towards cool ENSO, so the EMI really isn't a big deal, but I would rather have it east all things equal. Yes, snowman...I know how the Pacific looks right now...just speaking of the model.

I think we are going to see some variation and another periood of the season that deviates from the west Pac urine pool.