40/70 Benchmark

Yea, that was a blast-

I actually agree with you that this La Niña may end up a hair stronger than last year, after starting my deep dive.

Hard to say SOP....tough call-

Still not much reason for me to post. Back to Outlook....see ya in two weeks.

Maybe I came off more confrontational than I intended...didn't mean to put you on the defensive.

Yes, but I was pretty clear on that portion of your statement, so why would I address it?

What exectly are you trying to insinuate? I mean....the RONI is dead-nuts on. If you are trying to say that the atmosphere is more congruent with La Nina this year, that may not be the worse thing in the world for winter enthusiasts given it's weak and eastward-leaning. Sucks we don't have the MEI this year.

Right...it wasn't. It was a modoki event.

I'm sure snowman will be embedding a tweet to this effect in the AM.

Thanks. I'm making a concerted effort to factor this stuff into my seasonal more.

Yea, I'm been trying to get it ...entered 70N/20N an 100E/60W. Must be doing something wrong.

The gradient between the cold in Siberia and the warmth INVO Japan is what has been causing the stronger jet, correct? I'm struggling to replicate that map view...how did you create the custom view focusing on the North Pacific?

Yea, IDK...I grade based off of the official index calculations....I mean, I forecasted a -WPO, so it's not like doing so helps me lol It is what it is.

I read that tweet this morning and was wondering how long it would take you to embed it here La Niña is very comparable to last year...I feel like he is overstating the importance of the -IOD....we have had some incredible winters with a -IOD....it's not prohibitive in-and-of-Itself. The WPO was extremely positive last year and my money is on LESS of an anomaly this year, but we shall see. The way I see it is that La Niña is extremely comparable to last year in terms of intensity, but more east-based. The west Pacific is also very comparable. JAS RONI is .63...JAS 2024 RONI was also .63. September 2024 WPO: 1.38 September 2025 WPO: 1.22

I like Wxbell's graphics the best....SV has just always had the best loading time, but that gap maybe closing.

I see what you are saying, but this is worse IMO....mischaractrerizing a storm due to mesoscale banding is more forgivable than lumping an entire season in with some of the least snowy when it was one of the more prolific just to the north.

You have a bad habit of applying your own back yard experience to everyone else. 2012-2013 was a fantastic season throughout SNE, with the largest blizzard since 1978.

@bluewaveWhich composite were you using to show the increased Pacific jet since 2018-2019? It doesn't seem that evident here...not doubting you. Just looking for a graphic that illustrates it better.

Full defense (mechanism) mode.

You were pretty pessimistic the last couple of years.

Don, excellent work. Defeitely jives with a lot my stuff. While I did see value in 2012-2013, I felt like there was a bit too much of a warm ENSO flavor for inclusion, at least early on in the season.

Yea, this is what I was getting at...I see what raindance is saying on it not mattering as much for the particulars, but it's tough to a great phase on the east coast without it. It can still happen if it's mainly N stream, bu that takes a lot of folks essentially out of the game.

I do see some signs that there maybe some late redevelopers.