40/70 Benchmark

It was pretty legit. @Damage In TollandThe one thing about the wind that you must hate is other folks' trash blowing into your yard...I know you are a neat freak. I am not, but that drives me insane.

You would think one of those kicker lows would impact a GL cutter.... I think some of that is cyclical....natural variation, but I don't doubt that the active PAC jet periods are more pronounced than they used to be.

March 2023 was brutal for me...I called for a SSW and a big March that year and was ready to spike the football, and the 30" of snowfell fell like 15 miles west of me The RNA was just too overwhelming. I ended up with several inches of slush and it torpedoed my whole seasonal outlook. I know you don't entirely agree, but I slightly cleaner redevelopment would have ended differently. Great discussion between you and Chuck.

Yea, we need to be just about at solar min to have a prayer of a -NAO winter season per the calculation....although I know there are other more practical metrics, such as the Greenland blocking index that Chris prefers. https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/gbi.mon.data EDIT: Link doesn't seem to be working...perhaps Chris knows what is up with that...

January 2021 was another month in which it didn't look bad on paper per the CPC PNA index, but any higher heights out west were off of the coast, so it was ineffective practically speaking.

I still have a couple of inches, but its getting ragged.

Yea, we were both lock-step with respect to the NAO...I remember I calculed a mean from my polar analogs and your calculation ended up within like .02 of it lol I may pull the trigger next year.

I would just drop it...its like trying to convince a MAGA to vote democrat.

Nookie cookie on the weekend?

Yea, I haven't researched it, but I'll take your word for it. Here is the apex of the -AO

I think has always been pretty common in cool ENSO Feb.

Yea, this was a different Pacific paradigm...the one common denominator, as Chris pointed out, was the fast jet that inhibited phasing....unless of course it was over the midwest or Atlantic.

Yes....precisely. If we have an El Nino, 2014-2015 will be an upper tier analog for me....but just as we saw with the 2013 analog this season, snowfall is highly variable. That was a great analog in hindsight, but that doesn't mean snowfall will work out...this is especially true with respect to an analog that featured highly anomalous snowfall, like 2014-2015. I would expect it to be much snowier than this season for the north mid atl and S/CNE, though.

Yes, I think we could have a small window like the 60's after solar min next decade, where we are susceptible to lots of blocking and maybe have a post warm phase flip back to a -PDO interlude for a few years....akin to the late 1980s with more blocking. I don't love the 60 comparison because we were right in the middle of a longer term Pacific cold phase that decade. I think a blockier 80s is a more apt comparison.

Yes....weaker El Nino/more N stream dominant with perhaps less NAO blocking.

I probably have the low end of that in my yard, so makes sense being a bit south of them.

I also understand that it would be a CC modulated version of a 60's pattern, as well.....understand that is a tacit implication when I say "60's pattern".

I think more like 80s for the next few years until we get past the elevated geomagnetic energy and solar winds in the immediate aftermath of solar max, then maybe more like 60s towards the turn of the decade, closer to solar min. This is why I feel like next winter maybe Pacific driven without much NAO blocking, which would favor the northern mid atl and New England. It depends on how quickly we fade from max....we could sneak in one more season before geomag kicks up.

I think next season is slam dunk for a good winter if we get warm ENSO...especially for the northeast.

Interesting that the only two stronger PNAs were a super El Nino, and an El Nino in the precipice of transition from long term Pacific cold phase to warm phase. I find the latter intriguing.

Need to get Steve on it...some lips n hips.

Once spring hits, you know the moisture train will commence.

Yea, while I'm sure the storm day mean temp is somewhat correlated to the mean seasonal temp, its obviously not a perfect 1 correlation so the storm track is what matters in the end......that obviously determines the crucal storm day temp. It isn't just a thermal issue, either....to get those 50"+ upper tier seasons in NYC, you need at least one large event or two and you aren't getting huge dumps with the mid levels lows to your west. Even if the low levels remain cold, you don't want the mid levels drying out and/or warming.

I would honestly take last year over this, too...snowfall was about the same, retention was much better this season, but last year had by far the best storm for me....which is what I weight heavily.

Only a week and a half until the big storm!