40/70 Benchmark

There are some posters you just know are never going to deliver good news, and if they ever do, it will be measured and delivered with ample caveats. Seem them post....brace first, read later-

I'll be pretty suprised if we don't see at least one round of significant blocking.

Modern conceptualization of "colder" is probably near normal.

Region 1.2 has warmed again, speakaing to the volatility that Paul mentioned, but the subsurface remains supportive of an east-biased event.

37.2 this AM.

Now, maybe these trends reverse and guidance will be wrong, but that is not what we are seeing now. It's not becoming less east-based.

Also, if you look at guidance, this has been expected and well forecast.

Yes, I think Jerry is focusing on region 3...while 1.2 is volatile....this marked cooling in that zone isn't a function of volatility. If you have been paying attention, the subsurface cold pool emerged due to sustained trades.

No; it invalidates it. The eastern zone of 1.2 began warm and the subsurface cold pool emerged there.

I think that is a larger problem in December..not so much late season.

I think you have it backwards accordingly to the weeklies,,,eastern zones recently caugt up-this is supported by JAMESTEC EMI data. East-to-west 23JUL2025 22.2 0.6 25.5-0.1 27.0-0.2 28.7-0.1 30JUL2025 21.8 0.4 25.3-0.2 26.7-0.3 28.6-0.1 06AUG2025 21.9 0.8 25.2-0.1 26.7-0.3 28.7 0.0 13AUG2025 21.6 0.6 25.2 0.0 26.6-0.3 28.6-0.1 20AUG2025 20.8-0.1 24.7-0.3 26.4-0.4 28.6-0.1 27AUG2025 20.5-0.3 24.3-0.6 26.3-0.4 28.5-0.2 03SEP2025 20.5-0.2 24.5-0.4 26.4-0.3 28.5-0.2 10SEP2025 20.5-0.2 24.4-0.5 26.2-0.5 28.3-0.3

Maybe a hair stronger than last year-

We need the trades colocated with the subsurface cold pool...we had that big time througout much of August, when we had the burst of intensification of La Nina due to the upwelling of the cold pool over the eastern half of ENSO. However, trades died down and shifted west in Septmeber. They look to pick up out east again next week and into October, but not as strongly as August. SOI has also been inching upwards. I think at the end of the day, the pedestrian coupling of the trades with the cold pool, owed at least in part to the diffuse PAC pressure dipole (Low west/high east) is what will have this La Nina struggling to be acknowledged by CPC in the record books. Will be very close. The subsurface says game on...but the hemisphere isn't totally on board.

IRI plume def. more aggressive with La Nina. I think they have finally caught onto to an event that will will fall just shy of official designation. I called -0.5 to -0.7 ONI peak back in July and it looks like dynamical guidance now peaks at -0.71, statistical -0.53 and mean of all guidance -0.61. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/07/la-neutral-enso-conditions-will.html Will probably go onto to overcorrect a bit next month, too before tickling back later in the fall. Subsurface is quite stout, but I don't think we will have the trade clout to surface as much of that in region 3.4 as we did in 3 and 1.2.

Yea, well don't forget the E QBO. This shouldn't be a super nova +NAO that is devoid of blocking.

I would go north of Tahoe this season.

My extra tropical Pacific composite actually looks just about identical to that BAM Atlantic composite. Primary Extratropical Pacific Analogs: 1971-1972, 2017-2018, 2021-2022, 2024-2025

Given the embryonic nature of this cool ENSO event, I'm not sure the -IOD is really going to couple with it enough to be a huge deal....bottom line is I would expect a weak La Nina response...this shouldn't be 2022-2023. However, I think the development of the -IOD does ensure that this will indeed be a cool ENSO season, and that the WPO is likely to be at least somewhat positive....two things that I had already been assuming.

Looks similar, but I'm a bit more aggressive with some episode(s) of blocking per the easterly QBO/solar max composite.

The real heart to the drought is over northern New England....couple that with a modest +NAO and maybe its finally my turn.

Anyone know why this IOD link isn't updating, and where the updated numbers are? https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data

Not one tropical post on my blog...first year that has happened since I started it in 2015. Erin was always a non-threat in my mind, so didn't see fit....if I had more time I probably would have made a post detailing why I was dismissing it early on, but that's it.

I was thinking yesterday how 2025 is the most boring weather year of my life. Absolutely dong for notable weather....nothing. Incrediable quiescence in the tropics....no notable snow events. Unless we have a good December, this is the most boring year by far. 1991 had Bob....1990 had the March ice storm....1989 had the Thanks Giggity (Hi, Tip) snowstorm.....maybe 1988 could challenge? But at least that had Gilbert to distract me a bit-

Problem is that since SE Canada hasn't been cold, you have had to get up to about Manchester, NH to benefit much from those...this is why I haven't sniffed normal seasonal snowfall since 2017-2018. Last year SE Canada was colder, but it was so dry that it didn't matter. I think we can at least get the SWFE gradient back closer to I 90 again this year.