40/70 Benchmark

Yes, they are heavily biased towards stock ENSO composites......and I know Chris called for the mismatch period, as did I, but I don't think anyone forecasted a +PNA and near normal temps in the seasonal mean....as impure as the PNA was at times being biased west and what not.... A mismatch period is one thing, but that just wasn't a warm winter per modern 1991-2020 climo I do think this trend is noteworthy despite the continued cool ENSO favor to the hemisphere...which is why I posted it. Not to claim its going to necessarily be cold.

Right....this is a tough pill for some to swallow, apparently.

Any long range ensemble suite is going to have a smoothed mean....and I know most of the climate guidance is an average of a number of runs smoothed out. This is why you never see 2 feet of snowfall predicated from an ensemble mean at day 7....it doesn't mean it can't happen, nor does it mean that the data doesn't have value. I agree the trend is somewhat important.

Which years? All of the 2nd year La Ninas?

Look like another nice break from the heat after about Wednesday.

I'll bet anyone $1000 that the CANASIPS seasonal was too warm in the fall of 2014 for the subsequent winter of 2014-2015. I mean in the seasonal mean...probably not for December.

Seasonal models are never going to accurately depict any anomaly of that magnitude, though....and obviously all of the higher magnitude anomalies have been warm over the past decade, so that is going to cause a cold bias. Go back to the fall of 2014 and show me a seasonal that nailed that anomaly.....

I seem to remember the CANSIPS being pretty consistent with showing a colder look last season...maybe I'm wrong. Anyway, I don't argue the inaccuracy of climate models at 6 month leads....I just posted it because I thought that the consensus was interesting.

If it were a wall-to-wall inferno and I posted it, do you think snowman would have posted a giggling emoji and called me Bluewave? He simply would have liked the post and perhaps made a passing comment about the IOD coupling with La Niña as added support.

How did I know posting the seasonal consensus would spark a debate because it isn't a blow torch.

Just to be clear, I was just thought that the current consensus was noteworthy.....I'm not expecting a cold winter.

Yes...and maybe for most places last season was good, but it was nothing short of atrocious where I am. And no.....I would take 2016-2017 over any of those seasons mentioned.

Yea, the CANSIPS is always too cold, but I thought it did best last season. I'm JB because I reported model data?

I'm just messing around, before Bluewave drowns me in the warm pool or raindance badgers me about how differently the Mexican monsoon is behaving from those years....that's just kind of what those H5 looks remind me of.

Solid Consensus for NDJ H5:

Geez....even the CFS isn't warm for the NE next winter. That thing is usually run by a tag team of Bluewave and snowman. Looks a lot like the CANSIPS at H5.

I'd kill for 2016-2017 right now...featured about normal snowfall and I haven't seem that since 2017-2018.

There are a couple of posters in this thread that are passive aggressively hunting that very response.

I just gave a reason why it didn't snow despite a +PNA and -WPO....the PNA ridge was too far west. How am I placing too much stock in the teleconnections??? You are the one that just said it didn't snow despite a -WPO period last season.... I would argue that the subtropical ridge won't remain so robust should the WPO flip negative....we argee the west Pacific warmth is largely responsible for that ridge, which is synonymous with a +WPO. This is largely why the past -PNA\-NAO intervals worked out better.....they were -WPO.

I wouldn't hold your breath on that with the +WPO/-PNA expectation.

Something changed last season...irregardless of storm track, I think we are going to be seeing better antecedent air masses in southeast Canada this season, which will allow for more significant "front enders" that have been harder to come by in SNE and the northern mid Atlantic over the past several seasons.

I have pointed out to you before, the position of the PNA ridge also sucked, though......you are on this crusade to prove that replica patterns of the past are no longer producing. I don't think that is entirely true.

I agree with you...as Chuck pointed out. Only positives for winter I suspect will be the EPO and some periods of blocking given the QBO.

SST feedback isn't a huge factor, but I think it can act to amplify and protract once it really gets established....JMO.