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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    @qg_omega
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, we'll see......I'm talking like a KU type...not a 6-12" coastal. Not complaining, BTW...just saying-
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm sure La Nina's influence has definitely peak and is starting to wane...so maybe a bit less resistance to more favorable outcomes, but not like it's the primary driver....+TNH is not uncommon in La Niña seasons.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I get what he's saying...those changes aren't really impacting the pattern this winter IMO.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    We should get a window for a bigger strike in early March.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's going to be lose...that isn't a 2022-2023 Baja trough.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is the type of pattern where you get a slew of moderate SWFEs and redevelopers...not a big dog set up with that gradient.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Next spring is when El Nino starts to drive the bus.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think so...RONI and MEI are still safely negative....GLAAM only approaches neutral next month. It's more the +TNH that will save February...a la 2014.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    March 1984 and January 1987 were no slouches...December 1981 for a lot of e MA...of course April 1982, Wolfie's fav ...
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree...I do think the +TNH can carry over, though...maybe some misattribution going on if we get the colder Feb.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I actually explicitly said this was to be expected in my seasonal outlook when noting this tendency the past several years.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have February colder than January with +TNH from January carrying over and acting as precursor pattern fowmr wave 2 PV split to set up March.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Did it ever occur to you that I may have not viewed that random post from 4 weeks ago?
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Ugh No thanks
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Mid month...but I mean, would I be shocked it it's January 13 or 17th? No, you get the idea...give or take...
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Some of us salute those of you.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I had my day last week when it was clear this first wave of cold had failed, but no use in carrying on...I'm over it. Still love the look for mid and latter January.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Congrats
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    #southwestwindsmatter
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Warm spells don't count if they're advected in on SW winds?
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    MEI and RONi are near -1.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    MEI is back.... https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ -1.2 peak in SO, ON was up to -1.1.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think it needs to...7 at halfway decent amplitude will do just fine to constructively interfere with the development of +TNH.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think March will be good.
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