40/70 Benchmark

If you view the dailies from the dates of major storms, the PNA ridge is centred just off of the west coast. I don't care how fast the PAC jet is, that wouldn't have worked out in 1852. I do agree that PAC jet has been an issue in general, as it makes it more difficult to time the palcement of the PNA ridge correctly, and for it not to fold too quickly. Here is a prime example from last winter of the Pacific jet undercutting a +PNA ridge and thus tilting it positively, leading to a failed phase attempt on the east coast.

Mentioned before, I am confident this will be BS this season. Will revisit next spring.

It didn't work out because the PNA ridges consistently positioned off of the west coast. Put it over the chinmey of Idaho and it will work.

I think the PNA will be volatile and average near neutral...we should be a big +month in January that will coincide with +NAO.

I prefer to study females, but you do you.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/index.html

I think it's one of the more helpful teleconnectors in terms of individual storms, but I would take the -EPO for starters during a given season....getting a vortex over AK is the kiss of death for any season.

I think there can start to be some positive feedback, but it's defintely not the primary catalyst. Agreed.

Yes, but it will be interesting to see how much that is mitigated by the west PAC.

You absolutely nailed that...full credit. While my outlook went up in flames, it was one of the more instructional experiences that I have had in seasonal forecasting. This is why I always say the ones that are missed are our most valuable resources. We saw something similar with the 1972-1973 El Nino, but obviously this was warmer given CC. I think this year we may see something similar in that seasonals will overbake ENSO into the output.

It's all interconnected somewhat and we don't yet fully grasp how, nor the full breadth of the ramifications of said connection.

I would still take 1995-1996 over 2014-2015....but it's close. Having the holiday season cold/snowy is the deciding factor for me.

I totally buy that...I have been adamant that I don't think the PNA is going to be a negative as the consensus does. However, the west Pacific will likely continue to be an issue to some degree....not to the degree that it was on 2022-2023, though.

Depends on how severely positive the WPO is. I think it's important to stop tethering ourselves to these absolute rules because nothing in the atmosphere operates in a vacuum. I think @Stormchaserchuck1put it best...."question everything"-

I would describe it as rethinking the assumption that a parochial approach to seasonal forecasting will be good enough.....ENSO, and SSTs in general along with every other variable, needs to be contexualized relative to the rest of the globe, which is precisely what RONI attempts to do. Its not the SSTs themselves that are the primary drivers of the hemispheric pattern, but rather the gradients. This is why we need to view ENSO RELATIVE to the western Pacific, and within the context of tropical forecasting, SSTs RELATIVE to the subtropics. It doesn't matter how extreme ENSO is (warm/cold) if the western Pacific is every bit as anomalous. Likewise, bathwater SSTs in and of themselves are not conducive if the subtropics are even more anomalously warm because the atmosphere will lack the requsite instability and CAPE to foster adequate convection. This season is a wonderful lesson in how to engage in tropical forecasting on a seasonal level in a warming climate just as the El Nino of 2023-2024 was very instructive with respect to mid latitude seasonal forecasting.

After these past seven seasons, I'd sacrafice my right testicle for that season....but normallu, I would describe it is very ordinary and yawnstipating.

Cold relative to current climo, yes.

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data

It really wasn't anything remarkable in terms of sensible weather for my area....maybe 10% above average snowfall with no huge events. Cold was nothing out of the ordinary, either.

Take a wild, crazy, absolute out-of-left-field guess about what his response may entail...go ahead-go nuts....

SSWs are no sure-thing...agreed. They are a wild card, but I think at this point, most of us are willing to flip that coin.

It least he has a few flakes dancing around the bad news

UK with the same gradient we have seen for the past several years, just north of my hood....I'll remove my spleen with a pair of pliers if this happens again.

January blows

Decent snow for December on the EURO