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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I thought mine from last year was okay...not great, but not bad.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    That guy and DirectWeather are at the top of my $hit list for ignoring.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    By then heat is manageable....like mid March arctic bouts. Sun is modifying air masses at this point.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, but better.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree. I also am keene on the idea of a mid winter SSW, for whatever that is worth...I know those are a mixed bag.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    "Wake me up.....when September ends"....
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, that's the thing....you go on so many snarky diatribes regarding how a viable winter outlook can be produced by copy and pasting the past 10 or so years, that it's tough to gauge where exactly you stand. Seriously, I would need to see a bit more than just this year.....my stance is if we make into the next decade in this same winter rut, then it's time to operate under the assumption that we've reached a tipping point, so to speak.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably similar.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, normally September is so exciting....
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    6.32" JJA total here.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree for the most part, but I still think we could pull off a sub 1981-2010 climo. I think it would be a low return type of anomaly, but I don't think that ship has sailed quite yet. I may be wrong-
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think you are going to get pushback from anyone about how exceedingly difficult it is to get any season to finish below the longer term 1895-2000 climo...this is why I never use that climo base. It's not because I'm in denial about anything or trying to dissociate, but it's for the same reason that I don't begin every outlook by rehashing that the sky is blue.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not too worried about that. Largest bias of climate models is to over-bake ENSO into the forecast, which should be weak. While I expect a +NAO, it's not going to be wall-to-wall IMO.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    How were you relative to normal snowfall last year?
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    In a perfect world, yes, but the PDO is more of a longer term oscillation that doesn't always correlate to our sensible weather.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    May be tied to your October MJO rule...or a coincidence.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, when you average 20", scoring 12" the first month kind of seals the deal.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    It may just be an issue for more research needing to be done on the topic...it's bad enough that ur sample size is so low, but I feel like having only one piece of research on top exacerbates that issue.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    100% agree here...been my stance all along.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I never doubt any of your research......just saying, not what I would have guessed.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    2014-2015 was even more anomalous in that respect.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Far too reductive of an analysis.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is counterintuitive AFAIC.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Even if we did, I'll take my chances on more snowfall than last year.
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