40/70 Benchmark

Yea, its not that I didn't believe you...I'm just not sure I buy it as being a huge factor, which isn't to say it has zero creedence...its just that its something I feel is easily overrided by other factors. But again...will I be shocked if this season has a flat Aleutian ridge? No, at least not at this early juncture.

Well, 2011-2012 was a Modoki La Nina and I'm willing to bet that much of the balance of that data set was, as well. I'll sell that...that isn't to say that I am necessarily sold on poleward ridging or a good winter...I just don't buy the QBO connection. I buy the weaker/easterly La Nina poleward ridging data.....2000-2001, 2005-2006 and 2017-2018 are three relatively recent -QBO negative ENSO seasons that featured plenty of poleward Aleutian ridging.

I don't know where you get this from....

I am not at all implying 2014 is a good Pacific match....all I am saying is that I don't think it will be a bad arctic analog...that said, I won't be suprised if get a decent look around AK next season, just not to the extent of 2014.

2014 is in a class of its own for QBO matches right now......its also a pretty damn good match for solar, too....so more reason to be skeptical of much arctic blocking. We are probably going to need to get it done on the Pacific side, which is what the CANSIPS does. That is also consistent with my very early idea, but extremely low confidence obviously.

#pantstent

Yea, this doesn't suprise me. No reason to bet against that for the balance of the decade, with perhaps some better luck and a mismatch season or two thrown in.

Although, I think 2022-2023 with a bit less extreme troughing out west would have been pretty good...I doubt the RNA would be that extreme again. December and March would have been much better, at least for my area, with even a predestrian RNA pattern.

2022...great, said no one east of the Mississippi except for @snowman19....

Yea, usually the cool phases last a bit longer....it could spill into the next decade a bit...but it won't be as extreme....long term trend line will def. be lifting.

I started pretty negatively last year, too, but the latter portion of the calculation swayed it...see what happens this year.

You mean the QBO is oscillating back and forth from westerly to easterly...must be CC!! JK

The 1960s being much colder than the 2010s is definitely attributable to a combo of both CC and the AMO (- vs +).

One thing I will say is that the 2015-2016 winter was much milder and less wintry overall, aside from the mid atl blizzard, then the 1957-1958 el nino....I am sure CC plays a role there maybe, but the former event was also simply stronger, too. Again, possibly due to CC.....that is reasonable.

Exactly...I agree, but listen...maybe Chris is right...I am willing to wait and see and I will change my mind if we are still sporting a negtive PDO in 7-10 years. But I don't see why the default baseline should be some radical change to the global circulation and multidecadal patterns. The climate/meteorology community should remain open to that possibility as scientists, but it should not be assumed at this juncture given the info that I have just presented.

If we get well into the next decade still in a west Pac dominate -PDO, then its time to reconsider.

Like I have been saying, its not rocket science....we are right on track for a phase switch around the turn of the decade.....the last cold phase was from 1945-1977 and that's 32 years. 32 years from the onset of this current phase in 1998 is 2030. As you can see, there have always been ENSO triggered deviations from the predominate multi decadal baseline going back throughout history. Notice also that the last major el nino during a cold phase was 1972-1973, also several years before the flip during the nadir of the second wave of the cold phase....just like 2023-2023. Its not some evoloutionary concept...its simply warmer while the same shit happens.

God, I love June weather dialogue....

49.5 last night.

This is why I have been quietly cheer it on.....nothing we can do about the dews, but the smoke may cap the heat a bit.

I think last winter was a sign of change, but its probably going to be an incremental, two steps forward, one step backwards kind of deal. ...

I had a quick hitting 7"er very late xmas eve into early Xmas AM 2017.

Simlar totals, but December 1996 occureed over two successive events in close proximity....Dec 1997 was just one event. The follow up one in Dec 1996 was mainly rain on the coastal plane.

I would love to get a slow moving HECS that breaks out around noon on Xmas eve and rages into Xmas night....been teased a couple of times, but no dice.