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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    2014 peaked at .52 RONI. I don't see it getting below -1.0 this season. MEI peaked at -0.5....They haven't updated since AM, but I can't imagine that is going to get much lower than the RONI.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Negligible. I seem to recall you questioning whether there was a discernible difference between ENSO neutral and weak La Nina when people were questioning whether this would become an official La Nina....is that particular take context dependent?
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't necessarily agree with this. Its a good polar and ENSO analog.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    1.17".
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    So doesn't Miami...what is the value of that perfunctory assessment? The volume disparity makes it silly to compare. When you put things into respective regarding how anomalous the prior decade was in the opposite direction, the current drought is still largely regression attibutable. I know my 10 year average just slipped blow normal this past year....but frustrating, nonetheless.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, this is what I was referring to.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, I'm not necessarily arguing for a wholescale pattern change....just a rising PDO that will be somewhat less negative.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    This one has never been much of a US threat.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Small sample size...look back long term and winter is clearly the path of least regret for weather enthusiasts in these parts.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I will confidnetly bet against the PDO returning to those levels during the upcoming cold season.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Everything that I am looking at says an extreme/ record PDO at this time of year is gong to elevate percipitously as we head into winter, which isn't a shock...one direction in which to go. Obviously it will be negative this winter.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...because I haven't seen any long range Euro heat waves posted in here this season.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think anyone with a modicum of weather intellect takes it seriously....but by the same token, I'm not sure an endless dose of persistence forecasting is the best avenue, either. Obviously the globe is warming...I get it, but I don't think we are beyond the point of multidecadal oscillations and general variance quite yet.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Allan Huffman is @RaleighWx..good met.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    11-15 days...just in time for my return from Udanda. Beautiful.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    @CoastalWxis going to hunt you for bringing that up lol He becomes angry at the mere mention of it.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, higher floor, lower ceiling.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its going be a weak La Nina....not prohibitive to east coast winter, but nor do I expect a primary storm track over the benchmark. Going to me a blend of messy storms and redevelopers IMO.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    ENSO should be a bit weaker than last year, but I don't think it will make much of a diff. As for analogs, take a look at my new blog post with respect to the higher latitudes. I haven't done the Pacific yet....probably towards the end of the month.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Bodes well for -AO this winter....but I do agree with you and @bluewavethat the NAO is likely to average +despite this.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's the dispersing of geomagnetic particles via solar wind that is the real trigger for +NAO, and that lags solar max.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it's somewhat nebulous, but the best consensus from the research that I reviewed is that the height of the tendency for +NAO coincides with geomagnetic peak, about 2 years post max and lasts until +4 years.....so 2-4 years post max. However, certainly +NAO is still somewhat favored right now.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, it isn't 2+ years....solar max was last October.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    @Stormchaserchuck1Two years in a row now our NAO work is lock-in-step......I swear, your calculation never influences my process in the slightest. My favorite part of seasonal forecasting is how eclectic it is....two folks with entirely different backgrounds like you and me can reach the same conclusion via disparate quantitative vs qualitative methods. The unique blend of of science and subjectivity really does make it an art form. That is awesome-
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