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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    91.8
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    90.7 Desperate times when I track heat....
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    89.6 Just about to 90 now.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Except with some elevation around Tolland...still about 83 there.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Coming up quickly now. 88.2
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    87.8
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Seems to be a pretty weak consensus... El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole remain neutral; negative IOD possible in late winter to early spring
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    86.0
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, our climo this close to the ocean lags the solar calendar by a good month...which is why our cold peaks from about 1/20 to 2/1 and snowfall from about 2/1 to 2/10...right up to warm-tushy-car-seat season.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I don't think those warming subsurface trends will continue much longer. Do you have the source for your long range IOD forecast?
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I actually like seeing that this time of year, anecdotally speaking, anyway...no correlation maps or anything haha.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, my point was it was warmer than 2021...not that it was very warm, per se...
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    My early hunch is ample poleward Aleutian ridging with -PNA.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    High of 96 today after 91 yesterday.....look like will make 4 consecutive of 90+ through Wednesday. My p&c for tomorrow has a high of 103 with a HI of 111...worst I could find....not the jack I yearn for
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Don, DM me if it comes to that....
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    87.1
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    @Stormchaserchuck1..here are SSTs from Augus to November 2021, preceding the only -WPO DM since 2016-2017. Now here is last year, which was featured a major DM +WPO...check out the difference around the Indian Ocean and even east of Japan...
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agreed......I am going to use your SST WPO correlation this year. I took my first stab at the WPO last year and missed it.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    This article seems to suggest a positive correlation between the AMO and WPO, which adds up intuitively based on the continued +AMO, but I haven't looked closely throughout history. https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15998
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I agree with this...I'm just saying there is a reason that -PNA/-NAO patterns have struggled more and it's the west Pacific. When they worked in the past, it was always with a -WPO. We look poised for yet another +WPO season.....ugh.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Going to need to see some huge changes in the subsurface to see a Modoki, but I'm not overly concerned with orientation when ENSO is this weak...just not that important.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree. I don't necessarily mean a frigid December...just active and not prohibitively warm.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I also think we may see a pretty fast start this December...will get into why later in the season, but it originates from the QBO/solar stuff.
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