40/70 Benchmark

Sorry for the OT....I'll let Wiz discuss CAPE for next Monday...I'm sure that will get everyone's rocks off-

Bugs die, so no pests....plants and grass die so no yard work, its comfortable and the weather is more interesting. NVM snowfall because I know someone like Scott is gong to vent about that in a response, but the storms are more noteworthy. All set with waiting 5 decades for a viable tropial threat or John Henry to shell out a deal for an interesting player.

Reason #132,432 why I can't stand summer. I can't wait until I stop sweating and everythng dies.

Going to be relatively slow sea ice melt.

When in doubt, just lump it in with CC and no one can ever prove you wrong

Oh...wait until Bluewave sees this post implying hope for the future He's going to come in with some tweet from a Japanesse nanna in the hills of nothern Japan bitching about how poor her onion crop is, and tie it to death to NE US winters for all of eternity.

Yea, no great anticipation with that this season...I know where its headed based on solar. But I think we could steal a round or two of decent blocking early and late season based on QBO data.

I certainly do not argue with the idea of a +NAO/-EPO this season.....just get some semblance of variability with resepct to the PNA and I will roll with that, though folks in Virginia may feel differently.

Well, even those 4 seasons 2021-2022 through last season....the only one that didn't have a fighting chance in the northeast was the 2023-2024 El Nino, which isn't a relevent analog this season. I would take 2021-2022, 2022-2023 with a slightly less extreme RNA, or last season with a bit more precip. Its not the death-knell some are making it out to be, though it certainly slams the breaks on the notion of any imminent, major regime change. That doesn't really tell me anything that I didn't already know because I have already conceeded another solid -PDO winter looking at how low it is right now...a cursory glace back throughout history seals that. Raindance was pimping 2022-2023 as an early analog...which I would be fine with. I'll take my chances on not having the west coast trough extend to the Baja again...December and March would have been great.

Oh, man...that is confusuing. Wayyyy too many dashes.

Some of these seasons aren't that warm.....its heavily biased by years like 1982-1983, which really isn't relevent this season. It certainly gives pause for expecting a repeat of last season, but I would hang myself over it.

I doubt another dry winter.

Few crucial edits.

GFS has been, too.

94 today.

Well, I gave you a list of easterly QBO/cool ENSO analogs a week or so back....the composite featured a ridge thatg was about as flat as a 50 year old weather dork's gut-

90.7

What is LWM?

90.0 4 consecutive days-

RT 2 works for me-

Good place for it.

Perfect

Got up to 89.1, but has settled back to 87.7.

That makes sense to me....My early hunch is that we will have a strongly -EPO, and a near neutral to modestly +WPO....I think this regression is temporary and we will recommence the climb out of this.