40/70 Benchmark

GFS

Staller.

Well, let's see...you leave to attend the Grammies, which occur during our peak snow-climo, every year...so why is this so shocking?

GFS recovered after the tiny cutback of 18z up my way.

I probably should have relegated the heaviest amounts to the east slope of the ORH hills, but forgot...oh well.

Local outfit here in the MRV:

My area had about 18" and ORH had 5".

I don't remember that event, but I love it....one of the precious two events, along with Feb 1969, in which I crushed ORH.

Actually, I do vaguely remember the neighbor using the snowblower in the Feb 1983 megalopolis storm, too.

Right, but it's consecutive runs.....I don't think it's going to make a difference, but it is what it is.

My first vague memory is March 1984 event...vivid is Dec 11, 1992.

Cape and far se MA has held serve and even ticked up a bit...everyone else, less.

Peak suite was 12z....been trimming a bit since...CT avoided at 18z, but 00z cut a hair everywhere.

I think Jan '22 will retain that belt.

Well, they are the same model....

Ooooops.....I cropped it and forgot which model it was. lol

Anyone have the latest version of this HRR graphic?

Post it

You got the BM from junior

18-24" zone is mostly 18-20", but thought is that SOMEONE will hit 2 feet.

I don't think 24" if widespread...I think someone will hit it, though.

They will spend a lot of time near freezing, though...we'll see.

In CT....elsewhere it cut back a hair, but mostly noise.

Final Call: High Impact & Long Duration Winter Storm Imminent for Sunday PM Through Monday Cancellations Certain Monday & Delays Possible Into Tuesday Synoptic Overview There has been very little change to the forecast rationale from First Call issued on Thursday. The primary trend amongst guidance earlier this week for the two pieces of energy destined to comprise our storm to phase much earlier than originally forecast. This has major implications on the forecast late Sunday into Monday because the earlier phase out in the nation's mid section induces southwest flow aloft over the eastern portion of the country, which induces a moisture-laden, southwest flow in advance of this system raise heights. This not only allows the storm to track further to the north and closer to New England, but it also forces warmer, moist air to flow over top of the arctic dome that will infiltrate the area tomorrow evening, which will enhance precipitation. The combination of the polar vortex, -NAO block and 50/50 low to the north that had been previously expected to limit the impact of the storm now merely ensures that it will remain mostly snow, rather than change to rain across a larger portion of the area due to a track much further inland. The latter is normally a risk with a phase this early, but in this instance, the pattern will simply now allow that to occur. Expected Storm Evolution Snowfall should begin moving into southwestern Connecticut from the tri-state area early Sunday morning. It will then rapidly overspread the rest of the area by noon. Snow should grow heavier fairly quickly throughout the afternoon, as is often the case when abundant moisture overruns an antecedent arctic dome, so travelers returning from Patriot's AFC title game parties should beware of deteriorating road conditions. This initial "wall of snow" is likely to be most pronounced in areas south of the Mass pike, as intense frontogensis will gradually subside as the leading edge of the precipitation advances more deeper into the arctic air and confluence. More of an onshore flow will develop Sunday evening with the storm making a closer pass, which will cause a coastal front to form over eastern Mass, potentially enhancing snowfall along and immediately poleward of this boundary as a result of increased lift due to the interaction of the marine layer with the arctic air over the interior. Deeper into this marine airmass, snow will mix with and change to rain over at least the outer cape and islands by midnight Sunday night, but not before at least several inches of snow have already fallen. Although the initial push of warm air advection snowfall will likely be heavier to the south of the Mass pike, northern locations will play catch up during Monday morning, as the energy from the primary system over upstate New York begins transferring to the developing coastal low passing off of cape cod. The Monday morning commute will be worst from Boston points north, and best over the cape and islands. Just how prolific and protracted this second phase will be depends on how quickly the redevelopment of the mid level low can occur, which will trigger a deep easterly inflow on the northern side of the system, off of the warmer ocean and over the arctic air in place. It seems as though several more inches are possible across the eastern half of the region. This will promote a continuation of snowfall of varying intensities into the deep interior during the afternoon on Monday. Snowfall should finally taper off by Monday evening, with any residual precipitation ending as snow showers over the cape and islands with colder air rushing back in. Precipitation should move out by the predawn hours of Tuesday AM, but be prepared for some delays on Tuesday due to the large amounts of snow that will have fallen. Thus it would be prudent to also allow for extra time on Tuesday AM. Final Call: First Call: Issued Thursday at 3pm: