I can tell you...I'm starting to switch, at just about precisely the same timing of the mid January dildoing last year....starting to look forward to milder times and baseball. It's just so draining that my patience is wearing thinner as the snow-drought grows longer, and I'm getting older. I may be planning my exit next year if December doesn't produce.
The two emboldened trends are the essence of why winters continue to suck in the east, and will continue to suck, regardless of how cold or warm it is. We need to get rid of this cool ENSO Pacific regime.
I buy it...I know someone like @qg_omegawill beat me over the head for that, but this season is going to eventually produce....I don't think I'm going to challenge my futility record.
We should see a nice stretch later on once the MJO hits 7, and especially if it actually hits 8.
I hope you were speaking only in terms of intensity, otherwise 2016-2017 is an atrocious analog...that event was Modoki, this is east-based.
AGAIN...Exactly what I said to expect for this period.....I kept reiterating +PNA January even though long range guidance was trying to show a never ending RNA....also said that PV would get strong as a result of the +TNH and strat reflection, but this is priming the atmosphere to rape the PV next month.
IGNORE GUIDANCE.
Maybe I will be wrong about the Feb SSW...I don't mean to sound arrogant. All I am saying is that it's too early to know despite long range guidance.