40/70 Benchmark

Obviously a cooler eastern Pacific is indicative of la Nina, but a warmer western Pacific is also representative of a cool ENSO dipole. A cooler western Pacific if often accompanied by El Nino.

I don't agree with this.... Note that the 1997 intense el Nino event was part of a very potent cool west/warm east Pacific dipole and was representative of a text book warm ENSO configuration: The 2015 el Nino, though biased a bit more to the west, was also part of this larger scale system that featured a very potent Pacific SST gradient from east to west in what was a fully functional warm ENSO.

Well, as long as you don't make pizza we're good.

1000% agreed!!!!!!

So...about that marine ass mist....

Ended up raking NS....March 2014 blew dead ones.

I would use that for all of SNE at this point.

Well, I meant it in terms of latitude, and I know scooter did, too, since he said "Vermont to Dendrite"....I think it depends on storm context. At least you have one, regardless...I have neither.

Up refers to latitude...Toland doesn't really have that.

Yea, I would def. include the Monadknocks and at times N ORH hills...

32" vs 34.25" last year. This is my worst snowfall season since 2011-2012.

Chaos....the atmospheric highly chaotic, which is why you could replicate identical conditions via AI and the season would still evolve at least somewhat differently. This is why I say that it sometimes just comes down to luck whether or not any discrete event works out.....I know some don't like to hear that because they want to operate under this fallacy that everything can be figured out on a calculator, but it simply isn't so. Some are also leery of that explanation because they feel forecasters will use it as an excuse for a failed forecast, but there is an element of luck in weather. At the end of the day, the forecast is still either right or wrong and one needs to take accountability for that....just as in sports...plenty of luck involved there, but there still needs to be a winner and a loser.

I hit 58 yesterday.

You're in, but certainly not up.

Its marginal, agree.

I'm just killing some time before lunch, anyway....I don't expect anything to come of this.

Its more the first few days of April....as that graphic focuses more on latter March. The H5 plot seems to imply as much, as well.

I suppose we should watch this period for one last porking...

Looks as though AO neutralizes and NAO slips negative.

...because its never wise to expect that magnitude of an anomaly...at least on a seasonal level.

26.2 here.

The only reason I mentioned 2014-2015 is because it was also high solar, featured a flip from cool ENSO to warm ENSO and PAC cold phase to warm phase. This is why I think the Pacific may be growing more favorable moving forward, however, the solar winds usually kick up post solar max, which tends to disperse electromagnetic particles and promote +AO/NAO. I am in no way expecting record snows in the northeast, but I do feel it will be snowier.

6 Hourly board and diaper clears....

I have said this before, but I was all in on the Jan 11th threat....and when that withered into an advisory event, I took note of what kept going wrong out west and identified that as the hallmark of this season....I was sold on suck after that. My snow numbers ended up pretty accurate, but of course hope springs eternal thoughout the fall and early winter.