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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    My stance on the AMO is similar to that of the PDO....If we get well into next decade with no change, then we'll truly know. I know many folks may think that they know now, but they don't.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not surprising given history...
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I know most speak of "tipping" points with respect to when the current climo succumbs to CC, but I also wonder if there is a "tipping point" for when the earth's natural balancing mechanisms/cycles trigger a push back against said influences of CC....ie, maybe ultimately a flip to -AMO and +PDO is realized.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    2047...I actually expected a sooner date....I think Bluewave's model had yesterday.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    48.7 this AM....all just a dream soon enough-
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I'm talking on a seasonal level...brief periods are easily negated by other factors...whether it be a fast jet and/or poorly positioned ridges, etc....when the vast majority of the season is +WPO it loads the dice towards failure for eastern winter enthusiasts. I agree RE the cause of the +WPO tendency.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, agreed. Obviously the general warming is what it is, but I still feel like we will evetually see more variation to the WPO. I know we have talked about that and if it hasn't varied at all a few years into next dedade, then I'll need to reconsider that.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I also feel the West Pacific being drastically different is a big reasony why the -NAO was abope to produce more readily that season compared to more recent ones.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    So you kind of had the right idea. There were some pretty fundamental differences from 2010-2011 beyond simply 14 years worth of GW.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I got down to 49.1...it was so refreshing.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    All joking aside, I will try be more mindful of seeking clarity from you in the future before passing judgement...not that you are about my take.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Great, could you link me to your seasonal temp forecast for last winter?
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I did, and you said you didn't put temp numbers out. Sounds like from what you have said that you would have forecasted that you nailed it, which is great....I but I find value in having a record to remove any trace of subjectivity or confsuion. Perhaps I am just rigid and others disagree.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    The ENSO threads grow to be like 500 pages, so its really cumbersome and confusing to rely on those to disseminate seasonal thoughts. I obviously I share tidbots here, but also organize them in a thread.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, this is where we disagree....I think one thread annualy from those that offer seasonal insights reduces confusion, so we agree to disagree there. To each their own...just understand that it makes "misquoting" more likely.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    If preferring a single thread to organize and centralize seasonal thoughts is "ridgid", than sure...I guess. I think everyone who does seasonals does it...clears up confusion and no one is "misquoted".
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would pay for a repeat of that year.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just one per year...that's it.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't agree with all of Chris' takes obviously, but I really don't see what is wrong with putting your seasonal thoughts out there to clear up any confusion. Shame he doesn't because he's probably up there with raindance as one of the best forecasters....definitely better than I am IMO. I just wish there was more clarity, that's all.
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  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Chris, I have achieved a better understanding of the climate than I did 11 years ago and than I did even last year, which is all that matters to me. I have issued some bad forecasts, last year not being one, and the bad ones have been my most invaluable learning tools. I regret 0.0.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Cool. Quote the one with seasonal numbers. Thanks.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Precise format?? Dude, start a freaking thead and write your throughts with some numnbers in one sentence.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nope....we agree there...and I will tell you, the neat thing about never issuing a forecast is you get to dictate how right it was.
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