40/70 Benchmark

I'm not the least bit curious...only reason why I am periodically checking in here is for the same reason that I stare at fatal car accidents as I slowly pass by in traffic.

How many major NE US blizzards have seen with se-ne oriented PNA ridge off of the west coast? I'm going to venture to say not many- That works further down the coast, but it limits phasing potential and ability to turn the corner.

First of all, I have no issue with the bolded part of your statement....that isn't really speculation, or a hypothesis since we have decades of data to validate the notion that the climate is in fact warming. As far as your assertions regarding the warmer SSTs east of Japan inducing a faster northern jet that is making BM tracks exceedingly difficult, that may very well be true, but I don't that accounts for all of the missed opportunity....there are always going to nuances within the larger scale flow due to variability; CC doesn't prevent that. Frankly, having a confluence or a PV lobe too close in ME is just bad luck. Maybe your point regarding the jet is part of the reason why these storms aren't phasing proficiently, but we haven't had great ridges out west, either. Here is an excerpt from the blog post that I made on Friday night, cancelling this storm (never bought in for this reason) as guidance was ostensibly converging on a major NE blizzard. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/02/major-storm-threat-next-week-likely-to.html However, there is ample reason to doubt that this system will phase proficiently enough with the southern stream wave moving up the coast to impact the forecast area in a major way. Note the similarity in the forecast position of the PNA ridge next week in the above image to that which preceded the major storm threat of January 11th. This has been a very prevalent feature in the seasonal mean, which may at least partially explain the relative absence of major snowfalls across the region despite the relative cold temperatures. In closing, I have a question for you....why do you think the 1950s and 1980s, especially the 1988-1992 period, were so poor for snowfall on the east coast?

An element of the warming is certaintly anthropogenic, but how much is nebulous.

Antics like that aside, the climate is certaintly warming. No question...end of debate. I just think some of these postualtions about how it may impact the atmosphere shouldn't be assumed as fact after only several years of obervsation.

100%. Chef's kiss-

Yea, last year didn't have a month like this and they feel dramtically different. Agree....that said, my max depth was greater last year.

Same.

If you had read my outlook, you would know that I have in fact adjusted. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/11/using-past-forecasting-difficulty-to.html I think my resistance to your specific ideology is that I would like more data before assuming large scale changes like that are the norm moving forward......but you do you. PS: I was too warm this year.

I have 1" more than I did last year at this time.

Year.

Eh...sitting at 50% of normal and chalking up a 7th conecutive stinker, I can still complain while acknowledging Feb has been nice.

Yea, the PAC is why we didn't have a blizzard....the block is why we didn't even have a decent snowfall.

Well, I don't think the pattern was as favorable as 2014-2015...I know I never anticipted that magnitude of cold. You say this winter was nothing like 1979-1980, which isn't entirely true....the mean vortex was right near New England in both seasons and that has never been an abundantly snowy pattern. I'm not even saying that your contention regarding the Pacific jet wasn't an issue, but it wasn't the only one. I would say I can't wait until we get crushed again, but I'm sure you will attribute the snow to CC......there is nothing that would change your mind. CC is the meteorological equivalent to politics in mainstream society. We can agree to disagree.

There was also a couple of seasons like that in late 80s, too.

Truth be told, I have learned a great deal from you Chris and have incorportated a lot of your ideology into my seasonal forecasting, but I think you are a bit preoccupied with some of this stuff and it compromises your objectivity.

Why wasn't 1979-1980 snowier? The marine heat waves weren't competing yet back then? That fact that you think its simple is part of the problem......you have your mind made up about questions it takes decades to answer. Its called bias and having agenda.

That difference in ambient heights is absolutely CC.....no doubt.

I know Bluewave will come in here and rip me to shreds with 1,001 charts and graphs, but that's my take.

Ding, ding, ding. This season will be my 7th conecutibve well below average snowfall season.....care to venture a guess at where my mean since 2015 is? 60"....just about normal. Last decade was nuts. I do think that CC is causing a more feast or famine type pattern to snowfall distributuon for us......I will say that. I think its augmenting these pre exisitng cycles.

Just to be clear.....CC is absolutely real. I think it if it continues in abated, it will have to evnetually cause a drastic decrease in snowfall, but I don't think we are as close as some are implying given that a lot of this warmth (not all) is observed nocturnally. I'm not denying CC....I'm arguing is overattributed.

Right.....all that is right now is a radical postulation.

Sometimes the alignment is just off and cold pattern doesn't end up conducive to large NE snowstorms. Look at that mean vortex position this season....look familiar???

That's crap. This is what I can't stand about CC zealots....you can't win. Everything is due to CC....pattern is warm? CC. Its cold, but you missed that big storm? CC. Any guess at which season was my least snowiest on record? Let me help. Climate change?

Maybe that is why the piss ant result isn't impacitng us...I haven't looked at this threat in days....however, the phasing failure is attributable to that shitty ridge out west.