40/70 Benchmark

That was a boring overnight run of the EURO......the model's rendiiton of paint drying. GFS was a bit more exciting.

June

The lag is when it downwells from the strat....which is what I expected to happen. Instead it began in the lower levels and worked up, so we felt it instantly.

Old news. It split over a week ago...about Feb 10th.

April 1982 and March 1984.

That system looks like the last one with a shitter antecedent airmass.

Or...here is a crazy thought...I'm at work and didn't view the original exchange? I opined that that particular radical view is BS...I'll take your word for it that you were misinterpreted...fine.

He has a right to his opinion, but I feel strongly that is BS. Its not any type of denial.....I understrand CC is taking place and should we continue to fail to witness any such storms into the early part of the next decade, then I will reconsider that stance.

Yea, its like politics....never going to change anyone's mind.

Here are my thoughts from Novemeber....will update next week. Obviously the SSW didn't work out, but the PV split via tropospheric processes did, so this sped up the timeline on impacts and pushed it earlier to mid Feb. March 2025 Outlook March Analogs: 2023x2, 2022, 2021, 2017 2014, 2001,1972 The polar vortex should weaken once again to an extent to close out the season, though confidence is not high in a major episode of blocking. The window for a SSW is through about the 20th of the month, so the impact on winter would largely depend on just how early it can take place. During February or at least the first week of March for maximum impact throughout southern New England. There is another window for a potential KU from approximately March 5 through the 19th, but confidence is low.The cold source should be relatively close by at the very least, not unlike February should major blocking not materialize. Near average to 2F above in the mean with near average precipitation inland and slightly below near the coast.

Thursday Storm Threat by the Wayside as Expected Potentially One More Storm Threat to Close the Month Some Light Nuisance Snows Possible Thursday Across Outer Cape & Islands On Friday Eastern Mass Weather asserted why there was unlikely to be major winter storm impacting the region on Thursday. Similarities were noted between the modeled pattern over the western CONUS and other instances throughout the season that have greatly inhibited the ability of the streams to sufficiently phase and for energy to turn the corner and come up the coast. The most prominent comparison was made between the forecast position of the PNA ridge next week (now tomorrow) in the above image to that which preceded the major storm threat of January 11th. The placement of this ridge has been a consistent feature in the seasonal mean, which may at least partially explain the relative absence of major snowfalls across the region despite the relative cold temperatures. Short term guidance with respect to the near miss tomorrow is no different. The nuance pointed out in the large scale pattern is why a blizzard is not on the table, but the small vortex over southeastern Canada is why a portion of the area is not going to be able to muster a moderate snowstorm. As it stands, the outer cape and islands may muster as much as 1-3" of snow tomorrow, but the balance of the region will one relegated to flurries. Then the weekend finally begins to warm up before we await the next potential storm threat to close the month of February. One Final Threat to Close Out an Active Month of February There is telconnector support for a storm system represented by increased modularity within the polar domain (transition across NAO and AO) in the vicinity of the turn of the month. This is also evident on all three major ensemble camps, but what is apparent is that all three ensemble suites have the position of the western ridge right near the coast, which is where it has been for the vast majority of the season. Thus in the interim, any deterministic solutions implying major coastal cyclogenesis are likely to be in error, as they have been all season. Coastal development will likely be moderate with any major development likely to be either further down the coast, or in this instance more likely on the coast or just inland.

Some preliminary thoughts on next week...nothing new. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/02/thursday-storm-threat-by-wayside-as.html

Agree...not frigid, either.....warm up close to climo or just above makes sense.

This supports his point more, but these use a smaller sample size, so I would defer to the JMA version when there is conflict.

This is from the JMA site, which is derived from a larger sample size of data..kind of neutral:

Yea, I expect 2/28 to be a mess, but probably with a worse antecedent airmass to this past weekend.

It already happened early last week, and it has kept the northeast very cold....the effect doesn't last forever.

Yea, you exacted big time revenge on SNE in that one....I got like an inch of sand.

Yea, he his a titty twister by trade...no doubt. Just saying, prior to that one I suspected....

I remember I came in into this forum right after the 3' run for NYC and opined that it would be captured later and trend NE....it wasn't recieved well.

I know Chris probably disagrees, but I instinctively feel as thought the earth will find a means by which to restablish balance and equilibrium....its proven remarkably resilient in that respect. But again....this isn't me resistanting because I love winter....this is me resisting because I need more time to distinguish between onimpresent natural variability and whole scale CC induced changes. If we are still mired in this regime in another decade, I'll be entirely on tream Chris.

This entire winter has been like the end of a 8th grade date.

The early 2030's isn't an arbitrarily chosen point, either....I chose that point because it should represent a crucial point of inflection for our climate given the fact that the Pacific should have switched to the warm phase and we should be near solar min. If this regime sticks thorugh that, then something is up.

When he slipped he was Birving, but then he stammered to his feet as @Torch Tiger.

You could see it coming a mile away given similaritities out west to past instances this season...most prominently 1/11.