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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    We really need Christine back.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its funny how many folks struggle to wrap their minds around how clown maps will not come to fruition if the QPF departs prior to the arrival of the cold.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    He means he stopped posting because he finally accepted that it wouldn't snow.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I didn't follow it for one second....I'm at the point of the season where I remain checked out if I am reasonably confident that an event will not end up offering singificant wintry potnetial. I couldn't care less whether its 41 degrees F and raining or 38.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    99% of us new better...only the 1% that needsnow didn't.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think its 100% anthropogenic, but the vast majority certaintly is.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was agreeing with raindance last fall and winter that we were beginning to flip, but the idea was met with a great deal of resistance in here....I think we are flipping to -AMO/+PDO, much like the mid to late 70s.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it would press the cold south after the rain.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    47.3
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    TBH, that is what will probably need to happen in order to gain much additional skill in seasonal forecasting.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it was one of the stronger analogs.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Generally speaking, the more pronounced warm ENSO will have a more prominent cool west/warm east dipole, and vice versa for cool ENSO. Obviously CC is complicating this a bit, which is part of what led me astray for the 2023-2024 season.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, it doesn't. It implies chaos or random variability. You can theoretically have a text book perfect pattern identical to past successful analogs and yet still have the storm simply fail to materialize. Perhaps there is some minescule difference that is too minute to be accounted for, which is part of what is accounted for by "chaos".
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I didn't say they were identical...I said "you could replicate identical conditions using AI"....it was a hypothetical to illustrate my point.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Spring in New England!! We're in form for severe season.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll pass on anything resembling this past winter, thanks.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Obviously a cooler eastern Pacific is indicative of la Nina, but a warmer western Pacific is also representative of a cool ENSO dipole. A cooler western Pacific if often accompanied by El Nino.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't agree with this.... Note that the 1997 intense el Nino event was part of a very potent cool west/warm east Pacific dipole and was representative of a text book warm ENSO configuration: The 2015 el Nino, though biased a bit more to the west, was also part of this larger scale system that featured a very potent Pacific SST gradient from east to west in what was a fully functional warm ENSO.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, as long as you don't make pizza we're good.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    1000% agreed!!!!!!
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    So...about that marine ass mist....
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Ended up raking NS....March 2014 blew dead ones.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would use that for all of SNE at this point.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, I meant it in terms of latitude, and I know scooter did, too, since he said "Vermont to Dendrite"....I think it depends on storm context. At least you have one, regardless...I have neither.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Up refers to latitude...Toland doesn't really have that.
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