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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I was speaking of that winter in a NE US context, but it makes sense that it wasn't as bad in the GL region....that set up isn't as hostile there. -
2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yes, the winter overall sucked. You are in the mid atl, I assume? -
2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yes, but it was more widespread in that system because it was occluded, so there was just narrow area near the coast that got creamed under the low level deformation. -
2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I don't think strong El Ninos are the catalyst for global warming, rather I just think global warming manifests most prominetly during high-end warm ENSO events. -
2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
PD II was just bad luck...I was in a subsidence area of around a foot. -
2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
It will never end well in the NE US for fans of winter when you have death-star vortex INVO Alaska and the Bering Sea...never has, never will...I don't care which climate era you are in. -
2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Eh....the Xmas event occured later in the Xmas day and was heavily tained with IP for me, and I got crewed in PD II. That winter was good, but left a lot on the table. -
2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
This would have been a slightly cooler shitty winter in 1898-1899...people get carried away with the CC crap. It was a bad pattern, regardless of the warming climate. +WPO/+EPO/+AO+NAO/-PNA/-PDO and a strong modoki La Nina, but sure...lets focus on CC. That season was an instruction manual on how to avert winter in the NE US. -
2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
It was a blowtoch then....the winter sucked. -
That's a general 3/4" to an inch or rainfall....I mean, what has happened to us when that isn't considered awful on a Saturday
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2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I agree with all of this. -
2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
February 1983 Megalopolis event was very good for my area (about 18"), but January 2016 was a fringe job....I got like 2" of pixie dust. Too bad the southeast ridging wasn't as strong in this "new climate" as it was back in 1983 ; ) -
2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
For my current location, you can probably exchange 1995-1996 for 2000-2001...my area now did much worse in the Jan 7, 1996 blizzard and much better in the March 5, 2001 event than my former locale. -
2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yea, I'm going to bet against a -NAO at this juncture, but will see once I do my polar domain research and you get your index calculation in. -
2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
My area was a local min....the Worcester hills and Boston area down to the south short did much better. i was only likw 10-15" above average...pretty blah. Similar to 2013-2014 in that regard....those are my two most overrated winters...they both lack signature events. -
2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
1995-1996 2014-2015 2010-2011 2004-2005 2017-2018 2002-2003 -
2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
NNE did fine....it's SNE that keeps getting the train run on it by mother nature. -
2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yea, I think the real flip is near the turn of the decade. -
2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I think everyone agrees with that...my contention is more that we are just in a shitty multidecdal pattern that its likely enhanced by CC. -
2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I think it's prudent to be skeptical, but I am willing to entertain it.....I just think its folly to speak in absolutes and act as if its a forgone conclusion. -
2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
It's also much easier to use any "forecast and analysis technique" with great success when you only go out three weeks into the future...start issuing an actual seasonal effort during the fall. I don't mean to be contentious or undermine your efforts, but if you are so confident in your analysis techniques and vision of where the globe is headed, then take it to the next level and do seasonals. -
2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I don't think you are conceptualizing analogs correctly if you are waiting for one to "verify"....it's not about finding a replica season, it's about determining which analog seasons have value and what element of each analog season offers said value. I thought the 2013-2014 (favorable east Pacific with roughing over NE USA) analog held a great deal of value last season....as did the 1999-2000 (PNA interludes during cool ENSO and too little too late SSW) analog. 1972-1973 (Pacific cold phase competing with potent warm ENSO) was a very telling analog for the prior season. 2008-2009 was an exemplary ENSO analog that I incorporated to successfully diagnose the late-blooming nature of the modest cool ENSO episode, which ultimately transitioned from east-based into a Modoki during a cooler NE us winter. The reason that last season was warmer than 2013-2014 is due to a combination of a vastly different West Pacific and background warming. I thinking understanding how to use analogs is of increasingly of paramount importance amid a fairly rapidly changing climate. Its crucial when using analogs to understand that we are operating in a warmer base state, agreed. -
2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Chris is very bright and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if he ends up being 100% correct, but it's still pretty speculative at this point. -
2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Where did I imply that it wasn't logically sound??? The implication of my statement was that any deduction beyond the fact that there is baseline warming going on is speculation. I have been pretty consistent with expressing that his suggestions are very viable, but we need to get into the next decade to be certain. No one knows for sure how the warming is going to alter global oscillations and circulations moving forward...including Chris because if he did, I can promise you he wouldn't be camped out in front of his laptop posting on a weather forum like the rest of us. Funny thing is that he was actually arguing that I would do BETTER if a replica 2009-2010 season were to take place, as I am near the MA/NH border...so no denial here, which is the term you were looking for...cognitive dissonance is a term used to describe the internal strife that results from living in a manner that is in conflict with your own self esteem, or firmly held convictions, so its not a defense mechanism. Disagreeing with someone doesn't have to mean you are in conflict... its actually more frequently quite the opposite. As far as the "dumb"comment, usually those that feel the need to hurl those insults are working with the most pronounced deficits....I'll leave it at that- -
2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
It was a hypothetical statement....which inherently implies that it's not "locked" in...