40/70 Benchmark

Chris, I have achieved a better understanding of the climate than I did 11 years ago and than I did even last year, which is all that matters to me. I have issued some bad forecasts, last year not being one, and the bad ones have been my most invaluable learning tools. I regret 0.0.

Cool. Quote the one with seasonal numbers. Thanks.

Precise format?? Dude, start a freaking thead and write your throughts with some numnbers in one sentence.

Nope....we agree there...and I will tell you, the neat thing about never issuing a forecast is you get to dictate how right it was.

I'm going to let you in on a little secret because sometimes even very intelligent folks like you struggle to see the obvious...you want to know a really good way to avoid being misquoted with respect to your expectations for a given season?? I know this may sound nuts, so bare with me here....issue a forecast that explicitly states your expectations along with a detailed rationale. I tried this about 11 years ago and have never looked back. Your failure to do so is what I chalk up to any confusion about what you "forecasted" in a random post on page 232 of the ENSO thread last October. Frankly, I couldn't give rat's scrotum how bad you think I look, Chris....I say that with all of the love and respect in the world, believe me. I have a wife, house, two jobs and four kids under the age of 6, but I'll try to do a better job of deducing what your theoretical winter forecast would look like based on your comments pertaining to a random seasonal model from a random post in an long scrolled thread 9 months ago. You don't want to put out a specific forecast, cool....but do me favor and get a really large mirror when it comes time to assess culpability for any confusion related to your stance after the fact. The onus if responsibility is with the forecaster, not the audience, dude. PS: "In the old days".....AKA "when we had a -WPO". Flip the WPO and its a slightly warmer version of the old days-

No, warmer and wetter than last winter is my guess.

I called for the mismatch period and explained in petty vivid detail why I didn't think it would be as good of a winter as 2010-2011 or 2017-2018 ....I was ultimately too warm, but not by much.

Okay...lets poll this....how many in this thread think Chris would have been too cold if he had issued a forecast last season?

Define "difference"......will it mean a below average temperature season with above average snowfall? Probably not....but will it prevent a wall-to-wall disaster with some periods of poleward Aleutian ridging and some blocking...probably.

I said it was cooler in much of the east than 2021-2022, which is was. Really, now you want to compare 2010-2011?? I thought it was unwise to compare a pre 2015 season to this "new, warmer climate"?? I guess we can when convenient. I think you need to start issuing forecasts if you want want to try to claim some sort of victory. I think we can find a redeeming aspect of everyone's narrative, but the trick is to put out numbers and have it verify close to reality.

Probably will be a warm fall.

Honestly....it retards constructive dialogue because then everyone is forced down that wormhole and loses sight for the forest through the trees. Seasons are measured against current base climo...that is a tacit undersanding, so please stop referring to 1895 in the responses. An understanding of how base climo is used doesn't preclude an acceptance of GW.

Well, hopefully you cool off soon. And to think, I always thought Davis was Straight...

At least the heat dome is over the 4 corners region. I'll take that.

I'm not arguing against CC or anything....the globe is warming, but last year was colder than we thought relative to 1991-2020 climo....that's my point. Nothing more, nothing less.

Yea, my point is that it was colder than everyone thought, including Bluewave, not that it was cold relative to long-term climo.

I understand that the standard for what is "cold" keeps lowering as climo warms....that is irrelevenet when forecasting anaomlies. I am not speaking in terms of absolute temps...simply departurers relative to current climo.

I think the issue maybe that you are referring to actual temperature, when most forecasts are issued based on anomalies relative to the current climate period. I guess this disconnect is what is "nebulous" and the source of said "obfuscation". No one argued that it was a particularly cold winter...the point is that it took a relatively lengthy interlude of cold to register even near normal per 1991-2020. This was more than a merely a mismatch period along the lines of 2021-2022, which was even wamer.

Its not going to be an official La Nina, but that doesn't matter...agree otherwise.

I think its still going to be a pretty costly season due to a late home-brew barrage.

I kind of get some 2007-2008 vibes for the coming winter....

The west will do better...no contest. But just give me something flirting with normal and I'd be estatic.

That is pretty much what I am saying....like a 2016-2017 type of season. I don't see a high ceiling, but I think there is also a higher floor than man recent seasons.