Nomz
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About Nomz
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and both events suck! we are who we thought we were
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I assumed that was what they meant because it made the most sense for the tornado cig levels; cig 1 hatching, you would expect EF2s if storms develop, etc. I could be reading between the lines too much, though.
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Need 75 mph gusts to verify cig 1 wind
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Little backside cover here?
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Re: capping. We were barely capped at 12z, and with convection already initiated, it wasn't gonna last long before this line formed. I should have checked this sounding before hoping for anything.
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I think that tiny bowing segment W of Fredericksburg will probably be the one that finally sweeps through DC. Will probably be marginally severe but whatever.
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This isn't gonna work.
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Yeah, this is gonna bust for DC, pretty badly. Even if this crapvection line never makes it to DC, there's gonna be zero instability.
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I think people are underestimating the ability for any open warm sector storms to blow up and start spinning. 700mb forcing for ascent on this event is absolutely absurd and there are some other subtle features (confluence band?) that could help OWS convection as well.
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They can go 15 cig 1 without moderate so I assume that was a pretty easy decision. Also if they were go moderate for wind anyways it doesn’t really matter going 10 or 15% for tornadoes.
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Day 2 MDT!!!
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The 00z NAM is legit
