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Nomz

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Everything posted by Nomz

  1. Nomz
    DC weather dome strikes again
  2. Nomz
    Really strong storm just sprung up NW of Manassas
  3. Nomz
    I’d assume it’s just a humidity thing? I’ve been seeing a bunch as well up in Boston and basically the entire east coast has been blanketed in moisture this summer.
  4. Nomz
    hey I’ve seen this one before
  5. Nomz
  6. Nomz
    Hey y'all. Pretty new to long-range forecasting; had a couple random questions I couldn't get a good answer on: When someone says a model is spitting out a peak of +4.5, for example, is that a single-day peak or a three-month average, as tracked by the NWS? Are we generally discussing RONI or ONI, and which is more predictive? (Does it change with seasons?)
  7. Nomz
    February 12-15 more likely tbh. Won’t say no to double dipping though!
  8. Nomz
    LWX says the tor warning verifies because of this now
  9. Nomz
    Another overly aggressive TORR from NWS LWX
  10. Nomz
    I can already feel myself saying "tuck baby tuck"
  11. Nomz
    54” winter CONFIRMED
  12. Nomz
    Pretty telling that for Dolphin the Google model has almost zero landfalling C3s, minimal c1-2s, and a majority of landfalling TSs.
  13. Nomz
    I wasn't alive then, doesn't count
  14. Nomz
    When do we ever not have to thread the needle? This ain’t Buffalo.
  15. Nomz
    The week+ of inches of snow sticking around were really fun as well
  16. Nomz
    There’s your downstream MCD:
  17. Nomz
    12z Buffalo sounding looked pretty good. Low toppers but 3cape and deep layer shear are good. That air mass should be advecting towards us through the day.
  18. Nomz
    Not that bad of a look for svwx tomorrow from the 00z HRRR. Shear is great, and as we saw today in Indiana, >500 3k srh can make triple-digit CAPE work. I think a 5% could be added for tomorrow around the i91 corridor.
  19. Nomz
    Nice idyllic cumulus clouds @ 22z
  20. Nomz
    I'm a snow weenie down by DCA and a severe weenie up in BOS. Who has it worse than me?
  21. Nomz
    Stormnet ringing bells for us Thursday. For those unaware, Stormnet is a new AI tool for SVWX forecasting that came out this year and has performed exceptionally well. Green is about equivalent to an SPC slight or enhanced, so this is quite a strong signal for d5. I know some may hesitate due to relatively modest forecast EMLs, but globals tend to underestimate thermos, and with the forecast shear (60-70+ EBWD and 300+ 3k SRH), I wouldn't want to count anything out. We await the king NAM.
  22. Nomz
    Since I'm back home in Boston, I've mostly been following our weather, but I wanted to stop by here. Obviously, insanely potent jet for this time of year, with 100+ kt on Wednesday over the Midwest and nearly 100kt as it takes on a negative tilt on Thursday over NE, both per 00z euro. The GooFuS solution favors you all with the trough swinging down a little bit more and overspreading the region with 40-50kt flow, which is good for this time of year. It should be noted that with these super-fast (speed and translation) punching jets, you don't need to be right in the centroid to see good storms. Deep-layer shear should be pretty good due to the strength of the jet, although it remains to be seen whether the LLJ and associated SRH will reach down to MA. Attached is a model sounding at BWI at 18z from the 00z GFS. 41 EBWD supportive of supercells, but, as you can see, it's mostly speed shear with no real turning with height due to a very modest 850mb jet. CAPE is skinny on this sounding in particular, but I wouldn't worry, as many others were 1000-1500+, and globals tend to underestimate thermos anyways. We will have to wait for the SVWX king, the NAM, to bring us the goods.
  23. Nomz
    So I should just pencil in my PDS blizzard warning?
  24. Nomz
    I wonder where the low pressure is????
  25. Nomz
    That's not supposed to be there...
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