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Nomz

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Everything posted by Nomz

  1. Nomz
    Am I gonna get baited into believing in this event
  2. Nomz
    Best believe I will
  3. Nomz
    With such impressive and consistent ridging out west its not out of the question. It's pretty close to out of the question though.
  4. Nomz
    In accordance with tradition from another weather community I'm in, I'm committing to a salt bet: If DCA reports 0.1" or more of accumulated snow, I will eat a tablespoon of salt.
  5. Nomz
    This event is very driven by 700mb forcing. Local maxima NW of Baltimore, where the most severe storming is, and much less flow with southern extent, which is causing the southern side of the storm to be much weaker. Our temp/dew spreads are a little wider down here as well, which is not helping matters.
  6. Nomz
    Feels a bit overaggressive to warn such broad, weak rotation.
  7. Nomz
    SVWX is definitely my "specialty" though. What got me into weather, and what is still my favorite to forecast. To be fair I was probably right about the DC area, we just don't have enough instability because we had a local area of persistent cloud deck for basically the entire day.
  8. Nomz
    never let me forecast again
  9. Nomz
    Almost clear in DC, although we still might have some cloud deck coming in, according to vis sat. Already 84/54 at DCA, so it will be nearly impossible for storms to get down to the surface. The HRRR and RRFS are progging ~500 CAPE peak for DC, while the NAM nest and RAP are >1000. Usually, I'd lean towards the RAP, but both it and the NAM are initializing too cold (3 degrees or so), so I'll lean towards the HRRR and RRFF, which show a kind of isolated low-topped supercell event. Maybe some small hail.
  10. Nomz
    We have some good troughing for the next week or two. Maybe, just maybe, we get a hail mary event somewhere in there.
  11. Nomz
    Still a really heavy cloud deck here in DC. My thoughts are pretty similar to that of the latest AFD; we probably aren't gonna get enough surface heating and instability to pop anything cool.
  12. Nomz
    I learned my lesson with marginal temps in the Georgetown desert.
  13. Nomz
    Just barely in the spc 5# tornado risk
  14. Nomz
    I definitely think we go slight at some point. It's a bit of a balancing act with the NAM depiction vs some of the other models (thread the needle...). The NAM has a faster 700mb jet, which leads to a better EML over our area, but leaves subsidence in the exit region of the jet. The other models are much slower with the 700mb flow, so the EML is much weaker (<750 CAPE), but we are in the favorable area of the jet, so we get decent forcing for ascent and actual convection.
  15. Nomz
    Real thoughts: Right now models are progging mostly <1000 MUCAPE and pretty wide temp/dew spreads for most of the sub except the extreme southern areas, which basically precludes any real fun severe wx. However, CAPE could be a little undermodeled since we have such a seasonally extreme EML being transported out of the SW. And we have a decently favorable 700mb setup to deliver the EML to our region, although it's not perfect. Note ridging to the south, which is crucial for getting the goods up to the northeast. Would like to have that trough more towards the west coast than Texas, and the Pacific High more towards Alaska. Average 700mb setup to get an EML to the northeast (keep in mind this includes all the way up to New England, so the average is a little north of what we need): La Plata 700mb setup: Wednesday 21z 700mb per the 18z GFS:
  16. Nomz
    RRFS simref eye candy. Outlier run, but it's fun to look at.
  17. Nomz
    Happy to report it’s raining dendrites up in BOS
  18. Nomz
    Good news i'll be in Boston monday so y'all probably getting 10"
  19. Nomz
    I can't wait to see wsw initiated in Shenandoah while we get .02" QPF
  20. Nomz
    IMBY i'd need measurable snow to beat Sunday lmfao
  21. Nomz
    Agreed on this week. Both are just weak clippers (i.e. BOS might get 1-2 from each) that usually pass way north, or when they come south, just get destroyed by the mountains. Never really had a chance.
  22. Nomz
    Boston gets 18 again
  23. Nomz
    Wasn't this thing in like fucking Canada two runs ago?
  24. Nomz
    37.9 and -sn. Don't think they'll make it to 40" after all
  25. Nomz
    TF Green is due to report at the top of the hour; they were at 32.8" six hours ago. I could see 40"
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