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Nomz

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Everything posted by Nomz

  1. Nomz
    I wonder where the low pressure is????
  2. Nomz
    That's not supposed to be there...
  3. Nomz
    Per RONI, JFM for 96-97 was 1.8 so I didn't count it
  4. Nomz
    Given that we have a realistic shot of a 2.0+ °C El Niño this year, I decided to check how DCA has done snow-wise in those years. I used RONI, which goes back to 1950, and selected winters with ENSO >= 2.0 °C for DJF and JFM. 1972-73: 0.1" season total 1982-83: 27.6" season total, including 16.4" during the February 1983 blizzard 1991-92: 6.6" season total 2015-16: 22.2" season total, including 17.8" during January 2016 blizzard 50/50 odds, I'll take that
  5. Nomz
    and both events suck! we are who we thought we were
  6. Nomz
    what the fuck is that warning lmao
  7. Nomz
    I assumed that was what they meant because it made the most sense for the tornado cig levels; cig 1 hatching, you would expect EF2s if storms develop, etc. I could be reading between the lines too much, though.
  8. Nomz
    Need 75 mph gusts to verify cig 1 wind
  9. Nomz
    Little backside cover here?
  10. Nomz
    Verify it!
  11. Nomz
  12. Nomz
    Re: capping. We were barely capped at 12z, and with convection already initiated, it wasn't gonna last long before this line formed. I should have checked this sounding before hoping for anything.
  13. Nomz
    I think that tiny bowing segment W of Fredericksburg will probably be the one that finally sweeps through DC. Will probably be marginally severe but whatever.
  14. Nomz
    This isn't gonna work.
  15. Nomz
    Yeah, this is gonna bust for DC, pretty badly. Even if this crapvection line never makes it to DC, there's gonna be zero instability.
  16. Nomz
    I think people are underestimating the ability for any open warm sector storms to blow up and start spinning. 700mb forcing for ascent on this event is absolutely absurd and there are some other subtle features (confluence band?) that could help OWS convection as well.
  17. Nomz
    They can go 15 cig 1 without moderate so I assume that was a pretty easy decision. Also if they were go moderate for wind anyways it doesn’t really matter going 10 or 15% for tornadoes.
  18. Nomz
    Day 2 MDT!!!
  19. Nomz
    The 00z NAM is legit
  20. Nomz
    I would be careful writing those off as mini-supes. With such pristine wind profiles, only about 1k cape can get it done.
  21. Nomz
    Other forums I'm on have the ability to cut and paste a bunch of posts from one thread to another, could we do that for this thread?
  22. Nomz
    How about making a new thread if a moderate gets issued?
  23. Nomz
    Euro leads the way even in summer
  24. Nomz
  25. Nomz
    https://x.com/JBuchinskyWX/status/2032850219423916255
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