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Nomz

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Everything posted by Nomz

  1. Nomz
    Is that new? the disco looks the same
  2. Nomz
    Agreed. Although at this point it looks mostly south of our sub for really significant tornado threats, it wouldn't take much to put Richmond or even DC under the gun. Makes sense; really potent jet ejecting at over 50kts translationally into a relatively large OWS with >60s dews is always a recipe to go big time.
  3. Nomz
    https://twitter.com/Drewshearer444/status/2032528249914372367 Another discussion from a guy I really like
  4. Nomz
  5. Nomz
    Should we have a separate (pinned) thread for this event, since it appears to be the real deal?
  6. Nomz
    79438499621__93E89579-AD18-4DC3-837B-5993C062F6F9.mp4
  7. Nomz
    I think impacts will likely be closer to rush hour for our sub. Regardless, we're a tiny bit of instability away from a truly big time event. Have a feeling Carolinas will go big, however.
  8. Nomz
    D4 30% must be pretty damn rare for this area, especially in mid march, right?
  9. Nomz
    I’ll get it out tomorrow morning.
  10. Nomz
    34/32 in DCA and stilling falling. Water starting to collect on the surface which is usually a death sentence though.
  11. Nomz
    Look at DCA temps just fall off a cliff
  12. Nomz
    We also got a 15% on the d5 from the SPC
  13. Nomz
    Am I gonna get baited into believing in this event
  14. Nomz
    Best believe I will
  15. Nomz
    With such impressive and consistent ridging out west its not out of the question. It's pretty close to out of the question though.
  16. Nomz
    In accordance with tradition from another weather community I'm in, I'm committing to a salt bet: If DCA reports 0.1" or more of accumulated snow, I will eat a tablespoon of salt.
  17. Nomz
    This event is very driven by 700mb forcing. Local maxima NW of Baltimore, where the most severe storming is, and much less flow with southern extent, which is causing the southern side of the storm to be much weaker. Our temp/dew spreads are a little wider down here as well, which is not helping matters.
  18. Nomz
    Feels a bit overaggressive to warn such broad, weak rotation.
  19. Nomz
    SVWX is definitely my "specialty" though. What got me into weather, and what is still my favorite to forecast. To be fair I was probably right about the DC area, we just don't have enough instability because we had a local area of persistent cloud deck for basically the entire day.
  20. Nomz
    never let me forecast again
  21. Nomz
    Almost clear in DC, although we still might have some cloud deck coming in, according to vis sat. Already 84/54 at DCA, so it will be nearly impossible for storms to get down to the surface. The HRRR and RRFS are progging ~500 CAPE peak for DC, while the NAM nest and RAP are >1000. Usually, I'd lean towards the RAP, but both it and the NAM are initializing too cold (3 degrees or so), so I'll lean towards the HRRR and RRFF, which show a kind of isolated low-topped supercell event. Maybe some small hail.
  22. Nomz
    We have some good troughing for the next week or two. Maybe, just maybe, we get a hail mary event somewhere in there.
  23. Nomz
    Still a really heavy cloud deck here in DC. My thoughts are pretty similar to that of the latest AFD; we probably aren't gonna get enough surface heating and instability to pop anything cool.
  24. Nomz
    I learned my lesson with marginal temps in the Georgetown desert.
  25. Nomz
    Just barely in the spc 5# tornado risk
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