I’m a big fan of Larry Cosgrove. If this...or @psuhoffman doesn’t have you fired up for the next few weeks....
“I realize that there is a huge disparity between what some of the longer term modeling is showing for temperatures, and my analog projections. If you believe the CFS and ECMWF panels, none of the codler regimes showing up in late January will stick around in February. But realize: the model guidance has been useless since Labor Day. The impressive southern branch and flow splitting has created a thermal projection that looks like a typical El Nino, instead of what La Nina climatology (which the equations are using heavily) would suggest. And with the steady -ENSO signal projected to weaken, some of the blocking elements shown on the February 500MB comparison chart will come into play.
Realize that the potential storm for January 24 - 28 is a very big deal in the outline for February! The event would set a template of sorts, with continued blocking around Baffin Island, helping to set up a recurrent chance for Nor'easter type cyclones (both Middle A and B variety. Cold drainage would be made easy by ridging that sets up along the West Coast and nearer to the North Pole. Curiously, the analog platform has the eastern two-thirds of North America about as cold as what Europe has been recently. An upper low centered roughly over Lake Superior and into central/southern Ontario would create happiness to snow and cold enthusiasts, quite possible through March as well.
Note that a) hemisphere snow cover has expanded greatly, and b) the splitting of the 10MB circumpolar vortex has continued with ridging in far northern Canada. If you project on past modeling of stratospheric temperature, the potential is there for occasional cross-polar flow. So whereas Siberia is the coldest source region now, drainage may help to reform the cAk "motherlode" into Nunavut AR and the Northwest Territories. I think it is safe to say that snow and ice potential will be higher east of the Rocky Mountains, and that colder days are upon us.
Just so you know, however, that the analog system projects a very warm April and May, and a searing hot summer with multiple East Coast hurricane threats. So enjoy the chill and the chance for whote powder, because "Redux 2020 Hurricane Season" is high on the probability charts.
Sleep well tonight”