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TheCloser24

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  1. 12z GFS shows another winter storm threat next Monday.
  2. Tues-Wed: Impressive ensemble mean signals regarding coastal storm development of off S New England. Pivoting impulses through the broader H5 trof rotating H85 temperature anomalies through the Mid-Atlantic and NE CONUS. The baroclinic zone sharpening offshore as mid-level energy is sheared S through the base of the H5 trof, digging cyclonically with more time given the amplified, slower flow, the trof undergoes a negative tilt with H5 heights down -2 to -3 standard deviations. Thermal wind response and conveyor belt motions, a potential latch into the sub-tropics if the N-stream feature(s) doesn`t flatten / push out S-stream energy. Aside, seemingly a Miller-B setup. Clipper low diving S, emerging to the lee of the Appalachians, riding N/E, deepening and retrograding back beneath H5-7 negatively tilting features, the surface low bombs along the coast, a Nor`Easter storm setup sweeping delivering snowy outcomes. But still uncertainty giving the timing and speed of features, also strength and amplitude spatially. Initial cold air damming, question as to thermal profile with precipitation onset / over-running. Then how quickly do features evolve with respect to conveyor belt motions and closing off the H85-5 low, the morphology of the system and how effectively the comma-head wraps around the deepening low. Parent lift / deformation rearward within the dendritic growth zone, depth and quality of moisture mixing back around. Colder, Arctic air will undoubtedly dig into the backside of the system per the gradient and isallobaric wind response. Considerable spread within ensemble members. Certain of a wintry mix but largely unknown are specifics, both at the surface and up above within the mid to upper levels when it comes to strength, amplitude, and timing of features. As alluded to in the OVERVIEW above, simply need to be patient, be prepared, and be ready to respond in the face of adverse weather.
  3. 12z GFS shows another Miller B next Friday.
  4. 12Z NAM is a widespread 3"-6" of snow across SNE.
  5. NWS BOSTON: Tech Post: Snow Potential] Latest 6z model guidance has increased the potential for accumulating snow even back into the interior Sat/Sat night. Do not want to jump on one set of model runs, but will wait for the 12z guidance later this morning to evaluate trends.
  6. 12z GGEM has a 977mb low well east of New England at 168 hours. It brushes CT/RI/MA with some light snow.
  7. Looks like the 12z UKMET tracked inside the benchmark and strengthened to 985 mb near Newfoundland.
  8. 12z GFS is OTS with next week's coastal storm.
  9. Some parts of CT had 3 major snowstorms during Jan 2011. There was a norlun trough on January 7th that dropped 6"-18" of snow in western areas of CT, in addition to the January 11th and 26th-27th noreasters.
  10. Thanksgiving 2002 even had 9 inches of snow at BDL.
  11. 6z GFS shows a winter storm threat the middle of next week.
  12. 12z NAM has 3"-5" of rain in Western CT.