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TheCloser24

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  1. TheCloser24

    Fall Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

    From Michael Ventrice: Just heard word that ECMWF will soon be providing 6Z and 18Z cycles (in addition to the 0/12Z runs). This will be hourly data from 0 to 90 hours and 3-hourly data from 93 to 144 hours for 00/06/12/18Z runs. Good news to start the day!
  2. TheCloser24

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Fairfield, Litchfield, New Haven, and Hartford counties in CT.
  3. TheCloser24

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    KNYC AFD: BUFKIT profiles show some veering within first 10 kft above surface, S-SW for Long Island, NYC and more SE-SW to the north with stronger magnitude, more bulk shear. Total bulk shear 35-40 kt from 0-6km. MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and during the day this will become more surface based and increase to 1500-2000 J/kg. Certainly some potential for a few thunderstorms to be strong with a marginal risk for severe weather across much of the region for local damaging winds and a brief tornado possible where there is the most veering of low level winds and highest helicity, particularly parts of the Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT.
  4. TheCloser24

    May 15 2018 Severe Threat SNE

    NWS Albany confirms 2 EF-1 tornadoes in Winsted and Barkhamsted.
  5. From Ryan's Twitter: Morning update: more concerned with dry slot and mixing in Hartford area points SE. This will hold accumulations down some. Heaviest snow expected to be in NW corner.
  6. TheCloser24

    March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years

    Ryan, what do you think in terms of snow for the Waterbury area?
  7. TheCloser24

    February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    12z Gggem redevelops next week's system south of New England as a winter storm.
  8. TheCloser24

    Happy 5th Anniversary Blizz of Feb 13

    Greatest CT blizzard since 1888. 1978 had more wind but less snow in CT.
  9. TheCloser24

    January 29/30 snow event

    I guess its time to move on to the late week system. Maybe?
  10. TheCloser24

    January 29/30 snow event

    box afd: Also new 06z NAM trended farther west and heavier with qpf shield for tonight. 06z GFS not as much. Will have to see how 12z models trend. Wildcard here is increasing amount of deep moist convection near developing low off the north FL coast at 7 am. This may result in more downstream ridging and a storm track closer to the coast. Stay tuned.
  11. TheCloser24

    Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:

    FWIW, the Srefs are also amped with the mean showing 10 in of snow for most areas in SNE. But I'm sure most of those are the ARW members.
  12. TheCloser24

    Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:

    Patriots winning a 6th Super Bowl would be something special. I haven’t seen it done in my lifetime since Jordan with the Chicago Bulls.
  13. TheCloser24

    Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:

    FWIW, 6z NAM actually shows a light to mod snow event across SNE now.
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