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About GEOS5ftw

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    1mi S Wheaton Regional Park

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  1. GEOS5ftw

    December 9/10 Storm

    FWIW (less than nothing since it's extrapolating the NAM), the northern edge of the precip shield on the 3km at hr 60 is about 40mi furthern N than the 12km at the same time...interpret this as you choose.
  2. GEOS5ftw

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    While we wait for Fv3 the GEFS looks to hold with a bit of tightening of the gradient in total precip...this is looking at total precip on TT not snowmaps but I would expect the means to looks the same as 18Z...maybe a bit less towards PA and a bit more in central VA.
  3. This. Since the time change I haven't been staying up for 0z runs and the first piece of guidance I check in the morning is the best we have for this situation, the EPS. Then the GEFS and GEPS, followed by op runs. The trend toward a closed contour at H5 on the means with wave 2, forming over the TN valley then tracking east is unmistakable. That is what we need to produce in our region. Like you I'm sweating the temps with wave 1 but 2-3 slushy inches Tuesday morning would be on par with the biggest event of the year here so I'd take, and anything with wave 2 is a bonus. Sure, fail options are still on the table but with the last storm the qpf hole was evident at this point on the ens and ops. BTW the GEOS-5 (fluid.nccs.nasa.gov) has been going with the closed low wave 2 since 0z yesterday...maybe not such a bad model afterall .
  4. GEOS5ftw

    March 11-12 Storm - Model Discussion STORM MODE

    Yep, the 3K NAM builds some ridging ahead of the 500 vort that the 12K doesn't, which strengthens the southerly flow at 700 and gets us in WAA precip. Seems to be a very delicate development dependent on exactly where convection sets up - mesoscale boundaries across the TN valley will be important in the next 24-36 hours IMO.
  5. GEOS5ftw

    March 11-12 Storm - Model Discussion STORM MODE

    JMA get DCA into > 0.5 qpf but has the screw zone pointed right at us. Still nice to see another global make the shift towards a just-in-time phase with the GL vort.
  6. GEOS5ftw

    March 11-12 Potential Storm

    Pretty apparent the 12z suite is converging on gfs-like solution. Nam made a huge step at mid levels but sfc is wonky and throwing things off. Rgem and icon look a lot more like gfs. I know it’s a weenie-ism but it sure seems like getting the pac nw wave onshore helped. Main difference is that it is more neutral/neg tilt as it dives and that can be seen in the vort maps very early on. .
  7. GEOS5ftw

    March 11-12 Potential Storm

    Just took a look at the NASA GEOS-5 model (https://fluid.nccs.nasa.gov/weather/wxmaps/). The maps are terrible to read but the 12z run was super amped- precip shield to lake erie and ptype would be an issue all the way back to i81 based on 850s. https://fluid.nccs.nasa.gov/weather/wxmaps/static/plots/d7f739b8-e604-30ef-b90c-59f306b6cbca.png I know people love to use it for aerosol transport and reanalysis but not sure how it does in these situations. Just another data point to balance the ecmwf run I guess.
  8. GEOS5ftw

    PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting

    CC looks pretty clean on the radar so those 30 dBZ returns should be all snow. I would have to think that is a promising sign so far - will be interesting to see how BL temps respond to that heavier precip.
  9. GEOS5ftw

    Jan 4th Coastal Obs/Disc

    I had to squint pretty hard, but just saw 2-3 tiny flakes in the streetlight (near Wheaton). Noticeable wind out of the NE.
  10. GEOS5ftw

    Dec 8/9 Obs and discussion (Showme's) Storm

    Look at the higher tilt angles on the radar. Some 25+ dBZ bands which should work their way down once the dry layer is overcome completely.
  11. GEOS5ftw


    AMSR2 overpass a few hours ago showed a rather large spiral band/partial eyewall, but so far this seems to be having trouble clearing out and forming a true eye. I would expect only slow strengthening until that happens.
  12. GEOS5ftw

    March 13-14 Storm Nowcasting/Obs

    Really dumping sleet in that 30 dBZ band centered near I95 - tracks I made 30 minutes ago have already filled in. Temp continues to drop too. eta: Looking at how much the bamboo in the backyard in bending over, loooks like we had some ZR accumulation but not much (maybe 0.1")?
  13. GEOS5ftw

    March 13-14 Storm Nowcasting/Obs

    Just woke up after about 5 hours of sleep - looks like it stayed mostly sleet here. About 3" so at least an inch of sleet since the changeover with some glaze so the snow pack should have some staying power. Temp topped out at 32.2 around 5am and has been dropping since, now 30.7. Edit for location: about 2.5 mi north of 495 in Silver Spring/Wheaton.
  14. GEOS5ftw

    March 13-14 Storm Nowcasting/Obs

    Can confirm - I'min the same area and just went for a short walk. About 1.75 on top of car which was the first surface to begin accumulating. Roads and sidewalks caved less than an hour ago and already 1"+. PWS temp has been dropping steadily, now 30.7.
  15. GEOS5ftw

    March 19/20 Potential Winter Event

    Some big partially melted flakes here in Wheaton even with my PWS reading 41/35. Altitude is around 330 ft but events like this make me wish I lived in the part of the neighborhood that is above 400.