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  1. oh, i'm not looking at that system. i'm eyeing the trailing/coastal. i think gfs is handling that first wave a little odd. the upper level pattern is a mess.
  2. gfs is more of an apps runner than a cutter. given the competing energy to the north i could see how that system ends up on the southern envelope. that said, the first wave is a week away, so there's gonna be waffling.
  3. i don't think there's really any formula for winters here. i've lived here most of my life and we're good for 2-3 advisory/warning level snows per season. that's my guide for a decent winter. what makes this winter lame so far is that we haven't had a single legit event yet (2-4"+), at least in the cities, and what's even more surprising is the lack of digital snow which tells me we really are in a subpar pattern. however, the 6z gfs does have a bit more activity/fake snow, so maybe that's a sign the pattern is changing. we'll find out in 2 months lol.
  4. agreed. this winter could still end up sneaky in that regard.
  5. would be nice to see the 540 line closer to our lat for a change when a system is encroaching (or a better vort pass), otherwise we need a perfectly timed high pressure to the north. without ample blocking these air masses seem to be getting booted out too soon.
  6. Our snow to rain ratio is generally minor league material, but we’re definitely in a prolonged mild/precip pattern...nearing 2 years of it. Need an atmospheric shuffle. Maybe that’s upcoming for February. Rain in Bethesda, trees/cars glazed. Might actually look kinda cool once this band of precip leaves.
  7. if i was paid to forecast, i'd be pretty concerned about power outages later, at least n/w of the fall line (assuming cad takes longer to erode). even the 3k has temps near freezing when the next batch arrives. obviously, won't be a skating rink, but trees/power line impacts...i could see that.
  8. the track for this system is so bad for this area that even precip is meager. i'm actually surprised we were able to get any snow/sleet at all, regardless of how strong the surface high is. this is a classic freezing rain setup.
  9. there appears to be more blocking in canada for that storm as opposed to this upcoming weekend where the system is just cutting through the path of least resistance into the midwest. timing will be key again. may even want that next system to slow down a notch.
  10. Wall of rain. Actually kind of impressive.
  11. It’ll be gusty showers, but wouldn’t be surprised to see local torrents. Bonus for thunder, but I gotta think that’s unlikely.
  12. Gusty showers en route. Windows open. January thaw (let’s pretend we have snow on the ground) in beast mode.
  13. Didn’t want to say it, but I thought h5 looked awful even during the thump scenario. May just need some time for the pattern to shake out.
  14. It's the dumbest title ever..probably why you missed it lol, took me a minute to realize it was a storm thread and not a discussion about how bad the pattern is. as far as patterns are concerned, call me one of those who didn't see this coming after what was a pretty chilly start to the season. this is without a doubt as weak of a winter as last year so far (actually weaker because the mid january storm was great). on a side note, i enjoy the outdoors, so if it doesn't snow i'm ok with some hiking/biking weather.