87storms

looks like it'll require being on the left side of that cone from the beginning otherwise it will need to take a pretty hard left turn.

are we convinced it's going to landfall in PR? looking at the radar/satellite it looks like there's still a chance it could skirt to the east (barely), though i'd be concerned about another west wobble before that could happen.

interesting post. the only thing i would caution against is making a claim that something is likely based off what's happened in the past. to me, that's a mask for not understanding fully the current setup and doesn't really work in meteorology very well. who knows, though, maybe this will begin trending further west.

this doesn't surprise me. people need to remember just how narrow florida is. it's about 100 miles from naples to boynton. impacts will be felt from coast to coast. the wave action in miami right now is impressive. as irma gains latitude, the impacts on the east coast will only increase.

key west radar still running well: https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes miami radar: https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes looks like the next wave will be entering miami shortly. still a lot of impact on the fla east coast.

any ideas which models have performed the best so far for the keys as far as location/intensity? the 06z gfs track looks pretty reasonable and some of the reports are that it might be a notch east of the euro right now.

it truly is incredible what those islands experienced. because there's not a million people there it doesn't get the attention it should. i can't imagine what it must have been like to have to be literally in the eye of a legitimate cat 5. i mean that's just incredible. anyway, not trying to clutter up the thread comparing what's now to what's done because either way irma is going to be destructive.

yea sustained winds there "looked" like 150mph. the surge and flooding with irma is what i'm concerned the most about with the keys and naples/tampa etc.

yea i'm not trying to downplay the impact on the keys (that's irresponsible), but mostly "up"playing just how bad sint maarten got hit. that was a catastrophic hurricane. i'm not quite sure i would classify irma as that right now based off of what i'm seeing.

while the keys are definitely getting pummeled with wind and surge, it doesn't look anything like the extreme videos that came out of barbuda and sint maarten earlier in the week. also, the left side of irma doesn't look as healthy as the right side. my hunch is that the big deal for florida will end up being surge and localized tornados more so than andrew-like sustained wind.

i don't see this missing the keys. they're in a horrible spot right now. last few frames, irma is clearly moving nnw on a beeline for key west. of course, anything can happen, but if the trend is real the eye is heading right in that direction.

disturbing to say the least especially with so much warm open water ahead. as someone said, it looks like a cat 4 and that pressure would indicate it's right there at cat 3/4 already.

pretty incredible event unfolding from key west to tampa. did not expect that a couple days ago. that scenario just didn't seem like the most logical one which shows just how much mother nature is in control of things. the eyewall looks completely healthy. i see no reason why this won't be a cat 4/5 at landfall unless there's some shear/dry air intrusion that isn't really being modeled. it's generally open water from here on out, not to mention daylight hours (not sure how much that truly impacts the structure, but i would imagine it doesn't hurt things).

the last thing i expect is this beast weakening, though i do wonder how much impact prolonged landfall would have on a hurricane that hasn't really experienced that yet. it's hard trying to figure out where the path will end up. looking at satellite and wv, there's multiple roadblocks ahead, but i could also see why this thing could shift west even some more and go right up into the panhandle. it's an intriguing storm to follow.

i'm viewing this (amongst others): http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx?latitude=39&longitude=-97&zoomLevel=4&opacity=1&basemap=0014&layers=0040,0112,011