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WesternFringe

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About WesternFringe

  • Rank
    Elevation 1545'

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSHD
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Churchville, VA

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  1. WesternFringe

    February 19-21, 2019 storm threat

    Pivotal maps do a good job teasing out how much would be snow vs sleet/freezing rain. Still a nice storm verbatim.
  2. WesternFringe

    PD Weekend 2019 Storm Threats

    I don't feel great about trends right now either. But that's when mother nature (chaos theory) throws a curve ball and we get one more nice threat or two that she and the patterns don't account for. Half full kind of guy, I guess. eta: 17.5" this year/ 23.5" climo
  3. WesternFringe

    PD Weekend 2019 Storm Threats

    I love your objective analysis, it is one of the reasons this board is awesome. My point remains why should we be encouraged by the the 10+ day good looking patterns while immediately discouraged by the same 10+ day bad looking patterns? Neither has proven to be true with regard to ground truth snow this winter.
  4. WesternFringe

    PD Weekend 2019 Storm Threats

    No one said to give up, but you were both agreeing that maybe coming back in 2 weeks was a smart idea. My only point is that some threats this year have first materialized inside that 2 week window and have produced while many more have been modeled more than 2 weeks out that don't produce.
  5. WesternFringe

    PD Weekend 2019 Storm Threats

    I was responding to PSU who was responding to C.A.PE. about the long range, so ask them thread police
  6. WesternFringe

    PD Weekend 2019 Storm Threats

    So, we are supposed to believe the LR now when it shows a shutout pattern, but be intrigued by it the rest of 65% of the winter when it shows promise at 15 days? All I am saying is that beyond 6-7 days, NWP has not performed well this year. I will not give up based on the LR guidance now any more than I will believe it when it shows good things for mby. I think it is a watch threats materialize/disappear inside of 6 days kind of year, at least for around here.
  7. WesternFringe

    PD Weekend 2019 Storm Threats

    It doesn't happen every time. Bumps north are common, but not inevitable. Sometimes, it is just a southern slider and the bump north from a DC stripe from 2 days ago doesn't bump north. It gets modeled further and further south and just stays as modeled. Otherwise, I would never get snow imby!
  8. WesternFringe

    PD Weekend 2019 Storm Threats

    Not sure the Euro is steadily leading the way. It had a 150 mile jump north from 12Z to 18Z yesterday. Perhaps it is steadying itself now since the 0Z was in between its previous 2 runs, but it wasn't so steady yesterday at least.
  9. WesternFringe

    February 10-12, 2019 Storm

    Radar says sleet but now 33 and rain, but was fun while it lasted! In maybe an hour and a half it went from snow to snow/sleet to sleet to cold rain.
  10. WesternFringe

    February 10-12, 2019 Storm

    Went up to O Hill when it was snowing a few times in 1993-4 when I lived in the old dorms there. Good luck!
  11. WesternFringe

    February 10-12, 2019 Storm

    I will stop posting pics of my car topper after this one, but pleasantly surprised how much snow is in the mix with sleet for the first 40 minutes at least! 33 and dropping slowly. Good luck to everyone!
  12. WesternFringe

    February 10-12, 2019 Storm

    Started lightly snowing and sleeting here 10 minutes ago. 33 degrees. I appreciate at least getting some frozen!
  13. WesternFringe

    February 10-12, 2019 Storm

    Yeah, it is not rocket science. 36.3 degrees here. Still nada, but looks to be a moisture slug headed here from the WSW arriving shortly. Fingers crossed.
  14. WesternFringe

    February 10-12, 2019 Storm

    Heavy virga here in Augusta County according to WHSV radar. 36 on my outside thermometer. 30 from weatherbug station at local middle school 7 miles away
  15. WesternFringe

    February 10-12, 2019 Storm

    32/12 in Augusta County. Still hoping for something frozen tonight.
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