Jump to content

batmanbrad

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    297

  • Joined

  • Last visited

About batmanbrad

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Gaithersburg, Md. (20879)

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

  1. batmanbrad
    it's got some hail potential according to RadarScope, and it isn't moving very fast either so training and potential flood issues are there if the cell maintains itself.
  2. batmanbrad
    recent discussion from WPC highlights flood potential: Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1149 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026 Day 2 Valid 12Z Sun Jul 05 2026 - 12Z Mon Jul 06 2026 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... An east-west orientated front boundary will be sprawled across the Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic region during this period. Moderate instability combined with PW values of 2+ inches are expected to overlap near the frontal boundary to produce periods of heavy rainfall. This area historically is more prone to flash flooding due to terrain influences and more sensitive hydrologic schemes thus maintaining the Slight Risk for excessive rainfall for this part of the region. Backbuilding and training of thunderstorms may be possible. Scattered flash flood concerns exist over the central Mid- Atlantic with an increasing risk of heavy convection over portions of Pennsylvania down through the Washington DC- Baltimore- Philadelphia corridor. A broad Marginal Risk area spans from eastern Oklahoma/Kansas eastward to the Mid- Atlantic/southern portions of the Northeast.
  3. batmanbrad
    looks like few if any changes on the 13z SPC outlook
  4. batmanbrad
    whoa that cell near Manassas sure got itself together in a hurry... could be heading for DC?
  5. batmanbrad
    WPC just issued an MPD for our area - warns of heavy rain leading to possible flash flooding: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0499&yr=2026
  6. batmanbrad
    for those hoping for at least drought-denting rainfall, WPC shares some decent possibilities in their latest ERO/ERD: ...Central Appalachians to Northeast U.S... Surface low currently analyzed over the western Ohio Valley will gradually lift to the east-northeast with an expectation for the low center to exit off the northern Mid Atlantic coast, dragging a cold front through the Mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley and lifting a warm front ahead of the disturbance. The current indications are for convection to spawn over the eastern Ohio Valley by the early- afternoon as mid-level ascent and increased surface forcing aided by the cold front and area of low pressure will trigger convective initiation just upstream of the terrain in WV and western PA. This area of thunderstorms will migrate eastward, entering a favorable environment within a modest warm sector as you move east of the Appalachian front. Shear profiles across the Mid Atlantic are anticipated to be greatest north of the Mason Dixon, however shear magnitudes are still capable for enabling stronger mid-level mesocyclones to materialize and hold as far south as I-66 leading to prospects for heavier thunderstorms to hold across the urban corridor extending from northern VA up through NYC and western LI. HREF probs for >1" are pretty high for both the neighborhood and EAS fields meaning there's a consensus for areas of heavy rainfall to impact much of the Mid Atlantic with the most pronounced signatures into the Central Appalachians and the urban centers, both are which are susceptible to flash flood concerns. Antecedent soil moisture is dry, so the initial burst of rainfall will be beneficial to those areas not tied completely by urban infrastructure, however, there's a sufficient signal in the QPF means to maintain the previous SLGT risk inherited for the region as 00z CAMs maintained their depictions on a multi-round cycle of convection moving into the area with pockets of 2-3+" forecast across portions of the aforementioned areas.
  7. batmanbrad
    does look clear esp. over MoCo as of now, though there are some clouds to the west so unless those dissipate as they move out of the mountains, we'll probably have intervals of both clear skies and some cloud cover:
  8. batmanbrad
    not much change in the newest SPC day 2 outlook for our area, they held the TOR prob at 2% and mentioned too much uncertainty about degree of destabilization to warrant upgrading to 5%
  9. batmanbrad
    noting we've been put in a SLGT for Sunday as well by SPC
  10. batmanbrad
    SPC did keep the 30 wind area in their 9AM update, but did shift it a bit E/SE, otherwise few changes - as you say, we'll see if anything improves on the CAMs otherwise many of us may (again) be disappointed.
  11. batmanbrad
    I can see some gust front/outflow boundaries pushing out ahead of that line
  12. batmanbrad
    so far the line of storms coming out of WV and western MD seems to be holding together pretty well - wondering what it will do when it comes over the mountains and hits the pea soup air over us right now. If it keeps moving quickly it'll hit before we completely lose sunlight...
  13. batmanbrad
    currently right underneath that cell moving through the Germantown/Gaithersburg/Laytonsville area, not much T&L but big time downpour going on for the last 10-15 minutes (and counting), with more behind it this might be flash flood territory if it doesn't move out soon?
  14. batmanbrad
    current radar trends are supporting the earlier thinking that most of the major activity will be north of DC...
  15. batmanbrad
    SPC issued another MD for our area, seems to indicate things are continuing to ramp up somewhat:
×
×
  • Create New...