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batmanbrad

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About batmanbrad

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    Gaithersburg, Md. (20879)

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  1. batmanbrad
    good summary of what's been going on upstream from us, including the Pittsburgh area MCS activity: Mesoscale Discussion 2220 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0513 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649...650... Valid 032213Z - 032345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649, 650 continues. SUMMARY...An organizing MCS will yield a greater risk for severe wind gusts across portions of southwestern Pennsylvania over the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery depicts an organizing MCS across portions of western Pennsylvania, with volume scans over the past 30 minutes from KPBZ depicting embedded velocities up to 65 kts at 600 ft AGL. Numerous reports of wind damage have been noted with this complex, including downed trees and power lines, with a 62 mph wind gust also recently measured at KHLG in far northern West Virginia. The downstream environment remains favorable for damaging/severe wind gusts, with steep low-level lapse rates (7.5-8.0 K/km), moderately strong instability (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE), and around 30-40 kts of effective shear in place, as sampled by the 18z PIT observed sounding and recent objective analysis. Given this environment and the organizing MCS, a locally greater risk for damaging/severe wind gusts is likely to accompany this system as it progresses east-southeastward across portions of southwestern Pennsylvania.
  2. batmanbrad
    question for the expert community - that line of storms is heading over Lake Erie - will the lake itself have any influence (in either direction) over the line's strength and/or motion? We all know what those lakes can do in winter...
  3. batmanbrad
    well, at least CSU-MLP thinks much of our area is in the sweet spot for 30% wind damage probabilities for tomorrow, so even if today turns out to be meh, there's hope:
  4. batmanbrad
    yep latest MCD from SPC says a downstream watch coming... that line certainly doesn't look like it's getting any weaker and the timing is pretty good since peak heating is a few hours away...
  5. batmanbrad
    on its current trajectory, the western end of that complex will get to approximately the Loudoun/Montgomery county line assuming it holds together...
  6. batmanbrad
    the 2AM SPC outlook pulled the 2% TOR risk down into much of our area, and the 30% wind prob into much of the northern parts of our area. CSU-MLP charts keep most of the TOR north of us but does agree with the 30+% wind area in our northern areas for today and keeps that going with even more of our area covered into tomorrow. Let's see if this holds when the 9AM SPC outlook for today comes out. Still many variables to sort out but should be an interesting next 36 hours or so to track!
  7. batmanbrad
    the early afternoon SPC D2 outlook did expand the SLGT somewhat so that it now covers a good sized portion of our area.... still doesn't look like it'll be a particularly high end event, may or may not end up getting a watch out of it tomorrow. But, something to follow.
  8. batmanbrad
    CSU-MLP latest had the best TOR chances between Baltimore and Philly
  9. batmanbrad
    SPC quite late with their 9AM D1 outlook update, wondering if they've been waiting on some additional model data?
  10. batmanbrad
    CSU-MLP latest still painting the maximum TOR possibilities right over the general DC area:
  11. batmanbrad
    As of this morning's output, they seem to be holding onto the 5-10% TOR for our area tomorrow...
  12. batmanbrad
    might be some rotation east of Cockeysville, Radarscope showing a TVS on it currently
  13. batmanbrad
    new MCD from SPC indicating they think this line could strengthen as it moves east into increasing instability: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1901.html
  14. batmanbrad
    RadarScope showing TVS near Owings Mills
  15. batmanbrad
    at least 15 minutes of VERY heavy rain here in Gaithersburg (NE side, near Laytonsville). Not much thunder/lightning, but stuck under good radar returns - not exactly training, but in no big hurry to move outta here either.
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