batmanbrad

hate to state the obvious but if we see Cantore anywhere near our area...

measured (primitively) nearly 5" here in Gaithersburg (close to Laytonsville), still coming down lightly for now. Does look central MoCo/HoCo has been in the sweet spot so far.

or even worse, SPC might include mentioning Georgetown in their convective outlook for Friday, including risk of hail the size of snowflakes?

If you were able to post *current* pictures of the rain (and no snow) you've been experiencing the last several hours, we MIGHT believe you... but we're betting you can't/won't do that.

or worse (given they lost to the sorry Pistons earlier today and gave up their "usual" 130 or so points), the Wizards "defense"

heavy stuff just finished up here in Gaithersburg, we seem to have been in the (relative) sweet spot for QPF - between last night and today, about an inch measured at the airpark a couple of miles from me since midnight as of the 6PM obs there, added to the roughly 1/4 inch from yesterday.

yep, both lightningmaps and the MoCo airpark reporting station confirm the lightning earlier:

Hey, if Topeka can get more snow over this past weekend than they did all last winter (and close to their biggest November snow ever), we can certainly make a run at our total from last winter, right?

In the wintertime, assuming temps were cooperating, we'd be screaming PIVOT!!

with most areas close to DC seeing between 2 and 3 inches of rainfall, it would seem the models handled this overall pretty well. some yesterday were worried we would underperform on QPF, but it looks like instead of turning NE as the NHC and a few others predicted, the remnants of Ophelia pretty much stayed on a northerly track enabling the overnight rains to keep well within the I-95 corridor and points west. Despite the overall weakening trend, because the remnants were moving at a fairly slow pace, the rainfall amounts kept adding up nicely, especially for those in the worst drought areas. As of now Dulles looks like they got about 2.75" for a local airport jackpot.

coordinated with the the above-mentioned MPD by ThePhotoGuy... Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 217 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023 DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016-504-506-VAZ053>057-527-240915- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0012.230924T0000Z-230924T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Washington, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Columbia, Ellicott City, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dahlgren, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair 217 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Flash flooding in urban areas caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...District of Columbia. Portions of Maryland, including the following areas, Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Prince Georges and Southern Baltimore. Portions of Virginia, including the following areas, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Fairfax, King George, Spotsylvania and Stafford. * WHEN...From 8 PM EDT this evening through Sunday morning. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - As the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia moves north along or near the Interstate 95 corridor, it will produce an area of enhanced rainfall. This is expected to result in 2 to 3 inches of rain, with high end amounts of 4 inches possible. This heavy rainfall will occur in a 1 to 2 hour period, and could result in flash flooding within the urban I-95 corridor. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ KR

also looks like the 12Z GFS is (so far) west of 6Z, at least through 30.

or alternatively, it WILL predict snow, we willl get sucked in (again) and trust it, but it will be... wrong again.

looks like the 00z Euro came a fair amount west (and sped up somewhat as well), give most of our area at least 2" QPF.

NWS thinking highly enough of the repeating storm possibilities to hoist a flood watch for parts of our area. Must think there could be a lot of heavy rain considering the fairly dry antecedent conditions.