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batmanbrad

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  1. batmanbrad
    In the wintertime, assuming temps were cooperating, we'd be screaming PIVOT!!
  2. batmanbrad
    with most areas close to DC seeing between 2 and 3 inches of rainfall, it would seem the models handled this overall pretty well. some yesterday were worried we would underperform on QPF, but it looks like instead of turning NE as the NHC and a few others predicted, the remnants of Ophelia pretty much stayed on a northerly track enabling the overnight rains to keep well within the I-95 corridor and points west. Despite the overall weakening trend, because the remnants were moving at a fairly slow pace, the rainfall amounts kept adding up nicely, especially for those in the worst drought areas. As of now Dulles looks like they got about 2.75" for a local airport jackpot.
  3. batmanbrad
    coordinated with the the above-mentioned MPD by ThePhotoGuy... Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 217 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023 DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016-504-506-VAZ053>057-527-240915- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0012.230924T0000Z-230924T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Washington, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Columbia, Ellicott City, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dahlgren, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair 217 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Flash flooding in urban areas caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...District of Columbia. Portions of Maryland, including the following areas, Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Prince Georges and Southern Baltimore. Portions of Virginia, including the following areas, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Fairfax, King George, Spotsylvania and Stafford. * WHEN...From 8 PM EDT this evening through Sunday morning. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - As the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia moves north along or near the Interstate 95 corridor, it will produce an area of enhanced rainfall. This is expected to result in 2 to 3 inches of rain, with high end amounts of 4 inches possible. This heavy rainfall will occur in a 1 to 2 hour period, and could result in flash flooding within the urban I-95 corridor. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ KR
  4. batmanbrad
    also looks like the 12Z GFS is (so far) west of 6Z, at least through 30.
  5. batmanbrad
    or alternatively, it WILL predict snow, we willl get sucked in (again) and trust it, but it will be... wrong again.
  6. batmanbrad
    looks like the 00z Euro came a fair amount west (and sped up somewhat as well), give most of our area at least 2" QPF.
  7. batmanbrad
    NWS thinking highly enough of the repeating storm possibilities to hoist a flood watch for parts of our area. Must think there could be a lot of heavy rain considering the fairly dry antecedent conditions.
  8. batmanbrad
    wondering how well that mass of stuff approaching Fredericksburg will hold together, if it does and with storm motion mostly south to north today, could get quite a dumping unless the storms around DC now stabilize things before the southern mass can get here.
  9. batmanbrad
    definitely looks like some boundaries are colliding in central MoCo. I'm here close to Laytonsville, skies just opened up and have some pretty solid wind gusts so far.
  10. batmanbrad
    MD is out, watch likely:
  11. batmanbrad
    some stuff trying to get going in the Chantilly and Fair Oaks areas moving NE that if it holds together could affect more eastern areas of MoCo, but it could also fall apart...
  12. batmanbrad
    Yes, looks like even with some outflow boundaries pushing eastward from the Loudoun County storms into MoCo, nothing much firing south and east of a Mt. Airy/Damascus/Germantown line, everything kinda training from SW to NE
  13. batmanbrad
    well, even if the wind/hail/tornado potential isn't the greatest for tonight/tomorrow, Sterling thinks highly enough of the heavy rainfall possibilities to issue a flood watch for parts of the area
  14. batmanbrad
    does look like they cut back the 5% hail area quite a bit to only western VA and most of WV.
  15. batmanbrad
    wowzers! Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 746 PM EDT Mon Aug 07 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0422 PM Hail 2 S Staunton 38.13N 79.06W 08/07/2023 M2.50 inch City of Staunton VA Broadcast Media
  16. batmanbrad
    not too much hope for today per pity meso from SPC:
  17. batmanbrad
    https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LWX-N0Q-1-24 can see some semblance of outflow in this loop (at least as of right now, 5:43PM) moving S or SSE from the storms up in Loudoun/Montgomery
  18. batmanbrad
    it's... ALIVE! Everything seems to be congealing from MoCo on west towards the stuff back in Loudoun county.
  19. batmanbrad
    the blob is not in any big hurry, if it stays together there will be some decent rainfall totals for those underneath it. Cell movement started out S briefly, has gradually turned left and is now reported as a slight ENE movement, such as it is. Edit: plus there could be a bit of training effect if/when the stuff further west comes though.
  20. batmanbrad
    and as Kmlwx predicted, MoCo cell now warned
  21. batmanbrad
    TVS sig on it too for now on RadarScope edit: oops, that's TVS for the cell out near Charles Town
  22. batmanbrad
    yes quite the red/green couplet of sorts spreading out rapidly, that cell sure developed in a hurry, wonder if some sort of boundry triggered it, but I can't see anything leading up to it that would be an obvious cause.
  23. batmanbrad
    cell developing just SE of Pooleville, if it holds together it could impact the Germantown/Gaithersburg/Rockville area. this is out ahead of the main area back towards Winchester so it's not "competing" against anything else for the moment.
  24. batmanbrad
    still trying... decent looking cell just popped up quickly in the Rockville area, may or may not have been influenced by a boundary.
  25. batmanbrad
    noticed that the SLGT risk area for today was nudged north and east into the immediate DC metro areas on the 9AM morning outlook. Discussion still seemed kind of muted though.
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