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batmanbrad

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  1. batmanbrad
    good summary of what's been going on upstream from us, including the Pittsburgh area MCS activity: Mesoscale Discussion 2220 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0513 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649...650... Valid 032213Z - 032345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649, 650 continues. SUMMARY...An organizing MCS will yield a greater risk for severe wind gusts across portions of southwestern Pennsylvania over the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery depicts an organizing MCS across portions of western Pennsylvania, with volume scans over the past 30 minutes from KPBZ depicting embedded velocities up to 65 kts at 600 ft AGL. Numerous reports of wind damage have been noted with this complex, including downed trees and power lines, with a 62 mph wind gust also recently measured at KHLG in far northern West Virginia. The downstream environment remains favorable for damaging/severe wind gusts, with steep low-level lapse rates (7.5-8.0 K/km), moderately strong instability (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE), and around 30-40 kts of effective shear in place, as sampled by the 18z PIT observed sounding and recent objective analysis. Given this environment and the organizing MCS, a locally greater risk for damaging/severe wind gusts is likely to accompany this system as it progresses east-southeastward across portions of southwestern Pennsylvania.
  2. batmanbrad
    question for the expert community - that line of storms is heading over Lake Erie - will the lake itself have any influence (in either direction) over the line's strength and/or motion? We all know what those lakes can do in winter...
  3. batmanbrad
    well, at least CSU-MLP thinks much of our area is in the sweet spot for 30% wind damage probabilities for tomorrow, so even if today turns out to be meh, there's hope:
  4. batmanbrad
    yep latest MCD from SPC says a downstream watch coming... that line certainly doesn't look like it's getting any weaker and the timing is pretty good since peak heating is a few hours away...
  5. batmanbrad
    on its current trajectory, the western end of that complex will get to approximately the Loudoun/Montgomery county line assuming it holds together...
  6. batmanbrad
    the 2AM SPC outlook pulled the 2% TOR risk down into much of our area, and the 30% wind prob into much of the northern parts of our area. CSU-MLP charts keep most of the TOR north of us but does agree with the 30+% wind area in our northern areas for today and keeps that going with even more of our area covered into tomorrow. Let's see if this holds when the 9AM SPC outlook for today comes out. Still many variables to sort out but should be an interesting next 36 hours or so to track!
  7. batmanbrad
    the early afternoon SPC D2 outlook did expand the SLGT somewhat so that it now covers a good sized portion of our area.... still doesn't look like it'll be a particularly high end event, may or may not end up getting a watch out of it tomorrow. But, something to follow.
  8. batmanbrad
    CSU-MLP latest had the best TOR chances between Baltimore and Philly
  9. batmanbrad
    SPC quite late with their 9AM D1 outlook update, wondering if they've been waiting on some additional model data?
  10. batmanbrad
    CSU-MLP latest still painting the maximum TOR possibilities right over the general DC area:
  11. batmanbrad
    As of this morning's output, they seem to be holding onto the 5-10% TOR for our area tomorrow...
  12. batmanbrad
    might be some rotation east of Cockeysville, Radarscope showing a TVS on it currently
  13. batmanbrad
    new MCD from SPC indicating they think this line could strengthen as it moves east into increasing instability: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1901.html
  14. batmanbrad
    RadarScope showing TVS near Owings Mills
  15. batmanbrad
    at least 15 minutes of VERY heavy rain here in Gaithersburg (NE side, near Laytonsville). Not much thunder/lightning, but stuck under good radar returns - not exactly training, but in no big hurry to move outta here either.
  16. batmanbrad
    we just got one, so good guess!
  17. batmanbrad
    and in the 1:30PM update the ENH was expanded eastward, now covers all or nearly all of our area.
  18. batmanbrad
    the stuff S/SW of Leesburg between Middleburg and Arcola looking quite healthy
  19. batmanbrad
    Yep just got warned - if it holds together could affect DC given its NE motion...
  20. batmanbrad
    looks like that storm had been moving E or even ENE, but when it ramped up and got tornado warned, it made a right turn and is now headed SE, probably towards the Damascus area.
  21. batmanbrad
    visible does seem to show some decent clearing as you get west of MoCo...
  22. batmanbrad
    it's got some hail potential according to RadarScope, and it isn't moving very fast either so training and potential flood issues are there if the cell maintains itself.
  23. batmanbrad
    recent discussion from WPC highlights flood potential: Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1149 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026 Day 2 Valid 12Z Sun Jul 05 2026 - 12Z Mon Jul 06 2026 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... An east-west orientated front boundary will be sprawled across the Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic region during this period. Moderate instability combined with PW values of 2+ inches are expected to overlap near the frontal boundary to produce periods of heavy rainfall. This area historically is more prone to flash flooding due to terrain influences and more sensitive hydrologic schemes thus maintaining the Slight Risk for excessive rainfall for this part of the region. Backbuilding and training of thunderstorms may be possible. Scattered flash flood concerns exist over the central Mid- Atlantic with an increasing risk of heavy convection over portions of Pennsylvania down through the Washington DC- Baltimore- Philadelphia corridor. A broad Marginal Risk area spans from eastern Oklahoma/Kansas eastward to the Mid- Atlantic/southern portions of the Northeast.
  24. batmanbrad
    looks like few if any changes on the 13z SPC outlook
  25. batmanbrad
    whoa that cell near Manassas sure got itself together in a hurry... could be heading for DC?
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