batmanbrad

I'd think if the more bullish model trends continue (let's see how the Euro's 12Z run looks), NWS could issue some warnings with their afternoon package if there's a decent chance the necessary criteria for a warning could be met.

I also remember that my dad had a radio that could pick up NOAA Weather Radio stations, kinda dull way back in my youth but for its time it was pretty cool.

latest NWS high-end map, probably not going to verify but we can dream, right?

yes I have fond memories of the Trammel Starks music that TWC used to play a lot of, oh, 25-30 years ago?

That 3.5" marker over central MoCo is just about on top of where I live (Gaithersburg, near Laytonsville), I'll take that.

But gotta remember that Lucy will always pull back the football...

gotta love how the Canadian sticks its (middle) finger of snow-hole right through our region...

one last band trying to move E/NE from Loudoun County, if it holds together could give much of Central/Southern MoCo a bit more accumulation in the next hour or so.

measured about 1.5" on my deck railing, not as accurate as a snowboard measure, but considering a bit of compaction possible I'll take it! Wasn't expecting more than an inch up this far (NE Gaithersburg, close to Laytonsville)

have to say that overall this was fairly well predicted by the models, Euro gets props for having been the earliest and fairly consistent to predict that places even north of DC up to around I70 would get measurable stuff... and the timing of when it would begin and (soon) end was accurate as well. Some of the other models were late to the northern shift but did catch on as we got closer to the event.

clearly they built that stretch of I-70 to coincide with the northern extent of the green portion of the precip! Pretty much in line with much of the model predictions as to where the cutoff would set up?

18Z RGEM about the same as previous run, maybe just a hair better but mostly noise I think

let's see if King Euro comes back north as well and joins the rest of the 12Z model suite. It might as well finish what it started, right?

yep, no more snow for us on the 18Z, everything shifted significantly north - northern New England and interior New York get a good snow from this run.

and now the 12Z GooFus has backed that up to 12/3!

nice break in the clouds over MoCo, full sun here in Gaithersburg (near Laytonsville)!

12km NAM doing its NAM thing on us, look at all that 1+" purple!

latest 18Z GFS painting over .75" QPF for much of our area, has been trending upward:

BWI: 17.8 DCA: 11.4 IAD: 19.5 RIC: 8.5 SBY: 7.5

is it stationary because something of an equilibrium has been (temporarily) reached between the competing steering flows?

both HAFS-A and HAFS-B (12Z) models showing a direct hit to Kingston with around 940mb, yikes

given that it comes in around Halloween, it would seen that the CMC run is trying to look really... scary. Presumably the 0Z run will be like Monty Python says ("And now for something completely different")

even more nastiness, yikes: Flash Flood Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 540 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025 DCC001-MDC031-033-VAC059-200015- /O.CON.KLWX.FF.W.0115.000000T0000Z-250720T0015Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia DC-Montgomery MD-Prince Georges MD-Fairfax VA- 540 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025 ...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY, PRINCE GEORGES AND FAIRFAX COUNTIES... At 540 PM EDT, emergency management reported thunderstorms producing heavy rain in Emergency management reports water rescues in Takoma Park and Silver Spring area. Flood sensors on SLigo Creek at SLigo Creek Parkway and New Hampshire Avenue show a 10 ft rise in 30 mins. . Between 2 and 3.5 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2 inches in 30 minutes. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring. HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Emergency management reported. IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Bethesda... College Park... Greenbelt... Langley Park... Beltsville... Bladensburg... Fort Totten... American Legion Bridge... University of Maryland... Potomac... North Bethesda... Landover... Hyattsville... Takoma Park... Wolf Trap... East Riverdale... Great Falls... Adelphi... Kemp Mill... New Carrollton...

Radarscope has a 2" hail marker on it too edit actually that's the cell SW of Point Of Rocks

WPC upped parts of our area to MDT risk for flooding per their late morning update...