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batmanbrad

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  1. batmanbrad
    I'm in Gaithersburg (but very close to Laytonsville), have had some good solid downpours for a while though RadarScope seems to tell me the heaviest pixels went to the west/north of me. Stuff seems to be trying to backbuild somewhat down towards the Rockville area so if it keeps training SW to NE we might get more here. Nothing really severe (even though we were warned), some moderate wind but not a whole lot of T&L so far. Edit - actually most of the heavier activity isn't in Rockville, it's east of Poolesville, just north of Darnestown and in parts of Germantown/Gaithersburg, all moving NE. Then it's a break until the next batch out near Front Royal which could get here if it holds together.
  2. batmanbrad
    usually CWG and/or NWS Sterling produces one after the event is over; for now best would be to check the reported totals in the PNS from LWX (last one was updated around 10:30AM this morning so its totals are not yet final, especially since some of the reports are from early in the morning).
  3. batmanbrad
    looks like a couplet on the velocity scan, now east of Damascus, heading for Mount Airy area.
  4. batmanbrad
    my phone just beeped, TOR warning for central Moco (I'm in NE part of Gaithersburg, near Laytonsville). Heading towards Damascus, says the warning.
  5. batmanbrad
    EastCoast NPZ probably figures that green patch of 0.4" over in northern Delaware likely will shift over top of him in the next model runs...
  6. batmanbrad
    hmmm... since the previous couple of advisories had Debby only achieving about 50mph max up until 2nd LF, this is a bit of a surprise, wondering how much more strengthening can happen while over water. Debby still not far enough offshore to be influenced much (if at all) by the Gulf Stream?
  7. batmanbrad
    so far SPC isn't too bullish on the potential tornado (or even overall severe) potential for Friday, though still time for that to change with the ever-evolving track forecast updates on Debby. Much of the subforum is in MRGL risk zone for now. From the early morning D3 outlook: ...Northern Mid Atlantic... Despite the weakening trends to Debby, models suggest that the evolution of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and appreciable boundary-layer buoyancy may be maintained into at least Friday afternoon, focused in a sector to the northeast of the accelerating surface low. It appears that this may be in the process of overspreading the Chesapeake/Delmarva vicinity as daytime heating contributes to boundary-layer destabilization, before spreading northward through the northern Mid Atlantic in advance of the more inhibiting mid-level warm core. Within this environment, the evolution of a few supercell structures posing a risk for tornadoes appears possible, before this threat wanes with the loss of daytime heating Friday evening.
  8. batmanbrad
    during the last 1/2 hour a big blob of convection developed just about right at 84W and just a pinch north of 28N...
  9. batmanbrad
    Today's latest day 1 outlook mentions possibility of an upgrade to SLGT from MRGL in some areas of the east: ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z.
  10. batmanbrad
    asking as a neophite... could the bay breeze collisions (?) be a factor in why things appear to be ramping up east of DC now?
  11. batmanbrad
    yes that cell heading in the general direction of Warrenton is definitely on a strengthening trend and heading NE towards DC metro
  12. batmanbrad
    looks like a bit of a westward wobble/jog in the last few frames, hard to tell if the bend back more W than WNW has started, Jamaica is hoping yes.
  13. batmanbrad
    there's an okay cell that's been developing SSW of Front Royal heading ENE, nothing severe yet but it bears some watching
  14. batmanbrad
    new severe thunderstorm watch for much of our western and central counties, guess they think the line to the west will hold together.
  15. batmanbrad
    looks like a 5% TOR probability was added in the latest day 2 outlook from SPC for much of our area. Still SLIGHT risk though...
  16. batmanbrad
    hate to state the obvious but if we see Cantore anywhere near our area...
  17. batmanbrad
    measured (primitively) nearly 5" here in Gaithersburg (close to Laytonsville), still coming down lightly for now. Does look central MoCo/HoCo has been in the sweet spot so far.
  18. batmanbrad
    or even worse, SPC might include mentioning Georgetown in their convective outlook for Friday, including risk of hail the size of snowflakes?
  19. batmanbrad
    If you were able to post *current* pictures of the rain (and no snow) you've been experiencing the last several hours, we MIGHT believe you... but we're betting you can't/won't do that.
  20. batmanbrad
    or worse (given they lost to the sorry Pistons earlier today and gave up their "usual" 130 or so points), the Wizards "defense"
  21. batmanbrad
    heavy stuff just finished up here in Gaithersburg, we seem to have been in the (relative) sweet spot for QPF - between last night and today, about an inch measured at the airpark a couple of miles from me since midnight as of the 6PM obs there, added to the roughly 1/4 inch from yesterday.
  22. batmanbrad
    yep, both lightningmaps and the MoCo airpark reporting station confirm the lightning earlier:
  23. batmanbrad
    Hey, if Topeka can get more snow over this past weekend than they did all last winter (and close to their biggest November snow ever), we can certainly make a run at our total from last winter, right?
  24. batmanbrad
    In the wintertime, assuming temps were cooperating, we'd be screaming PIVOT!!
  25. batmanbrad
    with most areas close to DC seeing between 2 and 3 inches of rainfall, it would seem the models handled this overall pretty well. some yesterday were worried we would underperform on QPF, but it looks like instead of turning NE as the NHC and a few others predicted, the remnants of Ophelia pretty much stayed on a northerly track enabling the overnight rains to keep well within the I-95 corridor and points west. Despite the overall weakening trend, because the remnants were moving at a fairly slow pace, the rainfall amounts kept adding up nicely, especially for those in the worst drought areas. As of now Dulles looks like they got about 2.75" for a local airport jackpot.
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