batmanbrad

Looks to my novice eyes that the HP to the north moves too fast out of the way and east, allowing this monster to tuck too far inland?

NWS also now has what used to be called something else ("90th percentile")? - now it has another name, but for us I contend this should be called (reasonable) BEST case scenario!

If only we could get Randy Newman to sing that...

Is that the same Sharpie that was used during Hurricane Dorian's Sharpiegate?

New Orleans area better hope this run doesn't hold: this is the 12Z GFS late afternoon on Sunday:

MD issued for our northern and western areas: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1388.html Not all that enthusiastic and only a 40% probability, so we'll see what happens but evidently they are not all sure the current cloud cover will break up enough to let the more aggressive scenarios for later this afternoon occur?

you were right, a FFW was issued a short while ago: Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1025 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016-504-VAZ053-054-150600- /O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0003.210615T0225Z-210615T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Including the cities of Silver Spring, South Gate, Bowie, Arlington, Annapolis, Falls Church, Odenton, Bethesda, Chantilly, Centreville, College Park, Herndon, Severna Park, Greenbelt, McLean, St. Charles, Camp Springs, Rockville, Arnold, Waldorf, Suitland-Silver Hill, Laurel, Severn, Reston, Alexandria, Clinton, Glen Burnie, Washington, Annandale, Gaithersburg, and Franconia 1025 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of DC...Maryland and northern Virginia, including the following areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In Maryland, Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles and Prince Georges. In northern Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria and Fairfax. * Until 2 AM EDT Tuesday * Thunderstorms with intense rainfall will cause rainfall amounts around 1-2 inches in localized areas within an hour. * Heavy rain in short periods of time will cause the potential for streams and creeks to quickly rise out of their banks as well as the potential for flash flooding in urban areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Yep, Radarscope shows estimated 2" hail with that cell, but only estimate.

STW just issued for the cell near the Boyds/Germantown area

also to my weenie eyes, there appears to be an outflow boundary starting near the Frederick area cells and going WSW from there, moving SE. Might be aiding in firing up those couple of cells in the FDK area? Could backbuild some ahead of the line further NW.

I'm in the NE edge of Montgomery Village (near Laytonsville), heavy rain but no hail here. More likely down towards Derwood, I'd think.

more big hail reported in the cell approaching Owings Mills:

1.75" hail reported with that cell/line approaching Purcellville

severe thunderstorm watch just came through to my phone for our area (I'm in Gaithersburg)

* WHAT...Heavy snow along with sleet and freezing rain. Total snow accumulations around 3 to 6 inches with ice accumulation around one to a quarter inch. assume they meant to say "one tenth to a quarter inch"... would hope we don't get anywhere near one inch!

now it has... reminds me of the movie "Pretty In Pink"?

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 250 PM EST Tue Feb 16 2021 DCZ001-MDZ005-006-008-011-013-014-016-503>508-VAZ052>054-506- 170400- /O.EXB.KLWX.WS.A.0008.210218T0800Z-210219T1100Z/ District of Columbia-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil- Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Eastern Loudoun- 250 PM EST Tue Feb 16 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Total snow accumulations of 5 or more inches and total ice accumulations of a quarter inch or more are possible. * WHERE...The Washington, Baltimore, and Fredericksburg Metropolitan areas. * WHEN...From late Wednesday night through late Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && $$

compromise... business casual?

I was over in Germantown mid afternoon (getting some takeout lunch from Carrabbas) and the sun was out... briefly. Then soon back into the snow. But it was good to see sunshine if only for a few minutes.

I briefly read that as AL Sleet (your hippy dippy weatherman, thank you George Carlin!

Indeed, just NE of me (I'm in Gaithersburg/Laytonsville area) 8-9" is "possible":

of note is that they have also upped the "high end amount/10% chance" map, potential of over a foot in places just N and W of DC:

Or to borrow from ELP... Welcome back my Chill friend to the show that never ends...

In honor of the return of THE CHILL, I think we should name this upcoming storm for him in some way? Or might it depend on how it performs...

would think after these 12Z runs, LWX should be bumping up the threat from ENH to MOD soon?