You’re just torturing yourself by continuing to track solutions that will inevitably change very drastically.
It’s definitely overly simplistic. If this were the case we wouldn’t be able to predict anything.
This. The old patterns we’ve used To track storms are simply an evolution of even older patterns we used to track storms. We’ll continue to update our indicators and metrics as the science/atmosphere evolved. That’s the beauty of forecasting: it’ll never be boring.
More than anything, there are a lot of similarities between forecasting and investing in how our emotions affect our outlook. Two dud winters in a row is FAR from anomalous, and any mention that NY is the new VA simply laughable. Yes, there is an evolution to our climate, this is absolutely inevitable with or without greenhouse gas; and yes, greenhouse gas is likely adding another variable to that evolution. But before these two years we were talking about NY being the new Buffalo. It’s the same shortsightedness that makes for overreactive long term predictions.
We don’t know how the climate will evolve, and that’s almost as much as we can say, except that indications point toward more extremes, in almost every sense. This might lead to more absolute winters—more consistent cold and snow, or warmth and dry. Who knows.