Wetbulbs88

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About Wetbulbs88

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KJFK
  • Location:
    Harlem, NY

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  1. Right? And yet it so rarely produces...Then again, most storms don't exactly have this sort of moisture to work with.
  2. Looks like the squall line is spreading thinner on radar. About to hit DC area but not expecting anything crazy.
  3. They forgot to add that the GFS is Also just an inferior model lol
  4. You’re just torturing yourself by continuing to track solutions that will inevitably change very drastically. It’s definitely overly simplistic. If this were the case we wouldn’t be able to predict anything. This. The old patterns we’ve used To track storms are simply an evolution of even older patterns we used to track storms. We’ll continue to update our indicators and metrics as the science/atmosphere evolved. That’s the beauty of forecasting: it’ll never be boring. More than anything, there are a lot of similarities between forecasting and investing in how our emotions affect our outlook. Two dud winters in a row is FAR from anomalous, and any mention that NY is the new VA simply laughable. Yes, there is an evolution to our climate, this is absolutely inevitable with or without greenhouse gas; and yes, greenhouse gas is likely adding another variable to that evolution. But before these two years we were talking about NY being the new Buffalo. It’s the same shortsightedness that makes for overreactive long term predictions. We don’t know how the climate will evolve, and that’s almost as much as we can say, except that indications point toward more extremes, in almost every sense. This might lead to more absolute winters—more consistent cold and snow, or warmth and dry. Who knows.
  5. Any possibility it’s chasing convection lol?
  6. Lol yeah it was just super quiet in here. That being said, I’m not totally out yet. I’ve seen this movie too many times not to know that with this many pieces of energy in play, the models will have a tough time. That being said again, I’m markedly bearish on this one lol. Edit: I also still think the surface isn’t being depicted as anything close to making sense. The precip shield evolution between frames 63 and 66 doesn’t seem possible.
  7. Okay then why did you come to the very specific conclusion that you came to?
  8. This is why it’s pointless to cling to any one or couple elements of a setup, in any setup. Gotta take in the big picture and experience.
  9. I’m on my phone but gfs looks like a marginal improvement. Not enough to excite. Correct me if I’m wrong.
  10. Regardless of what type or storm or trend, what he’s saying is that the models are having trouble. That itself moves storms around as we track.
  11. At hour 63 the two streams are beginning to interact and then the NAM basically loses it. It still isn’t close to resolving this.
  12. 18z NAM another improvement. the surface depiction makes almost zero sense so I wouldn’t hang on to that.