midatlanticweather

Mesoscale Discussion 1091 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Areas affected...the Mid-Atlantic into southern New York and southwestern New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 111902Z - 112100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the mid-Atlantic northward into southern New York and southwestern New England. Severe wind gusts and hail are possible with the strongest storms. DISCUSSION...Some deeper convective attempts are underway this afternoon across portions of the mid-Atlantic, particularly in southern New York as of 1900z. This development is occurring in a warm, unstable airmass with surface temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s F and MLCAPE values around 2000+ J/kg. The 18z ALB/Albany, NY sounding sampled the northern periphery of this airmass (along the CAPE gradient) with 0-6-km shear of 24 kts. This has supported some sporadic, more organized thunderstorm development recently. As the afternoon progresses, diurnal heating should support additional thunderstorm development across the region. Furthermore, a mid-level impulse in eastern OH -- influencing the ongoing convection in WW312 -- will continue moving eastward and should provide additional support for convective initiation and maturation. Bulk shear is expected to remain generally in the 15-25 kt range which, amidst forecast large MLCAPE around 2500-3000 J/kg, will promote strong updrafts capable of producing wind gusts and hail. Uncertainty remains as to how much convection will develop and coalesce/strengthen in the short term, but trends will continue to be monitored for possible watch issuance this afternoon. ..Flournoy/Gleason.. 06/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39937855 42097738 42657579 42777436 42337326 41237290 40177310 37717495 37397648 37777765 38937842 39937855 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

94 .. HI 108.. DP 78... Worst weather

Gfs wants to end the drought in the extended outlook. Tropical moisture could try.. I know it's way out and not right.

38.4 degrees for the low. No Frost but pretty cold

86.5 today was quite hot honestly. Not humid though. Watching the storms/rain progress slowly south.

Sleet and snow now in Purcellville. Mainly sleet Shall move to Discobs since it is not severe related from now on

That is impressive! almost 30 degrees in 2 hours!

Down to 36 here in Purcellville. Windy and rainy

Ominous temperature out right now!

24.4 for a low. 25.5 currently

Snow now and down to 36.

Basically, had a heavy shower that made things go to all sleet and even some slush balls, but as soon as it got lighter it went back to rain with some sleet and now just light rain with an occasional pinger. So, type of precip seems rate dependent which makes sense. Close to 38..was a bit cooler in the heavy precipitation

Rain mixing snow and sleet. 38.1

41.9 here in Purcellville. Temp dropped 2 degrees the last 20 mins. It was 72 around 4am. Pretty dramatic changes

You must record it and share

Spidy sense on that storm north of Luray.

84.7 for a high. That is crazy. Ac was tested today

True! Just not ready for the heat!

81 in Purcellville! Hot and humid!

76.1 for the high today. 80 seems in reach tomorrow and/or Wednesday

73.7 - warmest day of 2026 so far.

The deck was icey for sure! Had to clean it for the dog and family not to slip. Roads are fine, but the trees, combined with the wet snow from yesterday, are weighted down quite a bit. 31.7 degrees! Just a little bit longer for winter's last gasp and then the warm up begins.

Had a chance to get to the shaded spots of the deck. Over 2 inches of snow still this evening. Pretty good snow today here in Purcellville. Currently 29 degrees.

Almost 2 inches for a very short period of time when my temps were beat down to 28 degrees.. As soon as it got light it has been steady melt. Sitting at 31 and light snow.