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Everything posted by midatlanticweather

  1. Guess snow south of us hurt in 2012 as well!
  2. Probably should have said caved to the idea of snow -- not the amounts!
  3. I can hear @Ji already - too far north for a Southern Slider.. the consistency of something in NC southern VA definitely seems like a legit possibility in that region. This winter is painful. If this works out, I would be shocked!
  4. Coldest night of the winter. 10.6 degrees
  5. Agreed! Get me snow anytime and I will enjoy it! YES, I love some snows better than others, and snow means more at some times of the year than others. But snow is great stuff! I think we still get more, just not counting on anything big anymore.
  6. Public Information Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 657 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 ...EF-0 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN LEESBURG VIRGINIA FRIDAY MORNING FEB 7 2020... Location...Town of Leesburg in Loudoun County Virginia Date...Fri Feb 7 2020 Estimated Time...7:20 AM EST to 7:23 AM EST Maximum EF-Scale Rating...EF0 Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...85 mph Maximum Path Width...250 yards Path Length...3.3 miles Beginning Lat/Lon...39.0946/-77.5874 Ending Lat/Lon...39.1291/-77.5431 * Fatalities...0 * Injuries...0 ...Summary... Staff from NOAA's National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office located in Sterling, VA performed a survey of storm damage that occurred in the Town of Leesburg, VA on the morning of February 7, 2020. This survey, coupled with radar analysis from the KLWX WSR-88D and the FAA's TIAD Terminal Doppler Weather Radar, concluded that a tornado rated EF0 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale impacted the Town of Leesburg between 7:20 AM EST and 7:23 AM EST. The tornado had a path length of 3.3 miles producing intermittent damage, with a path width of up to 250 yards. The tornado was moving northeast at approximately 60 mph. The first damage was reported in the Greenway Farm and Linden Hill subdivision in SW Leesburg. Here numerous large tree limbs were downed along with several trees completely uprooted. The damage was determined to be concentrated between Lawford Drive and Nickels Drive in a wooded area, and also along Governors Drive and Country Club Drive. TIAD radar was showing a rotational signature beginning at 7:20 AM in these locations. Wind gusts in this area were estimated to be 65 MPH from radar analysis and damage indicators. The tornado then lifted over Route 7, with just some minor tree damage noted in the 800 block of Davis Court SE. The historic downtown portion of the Town of Leesburg, near King and Market Streets, was spared with just minimal damage. The only noteworthy damage that was observed was tree damage along Monroe Street. As the tornado moved into NE Leesburg, both the radar and the storm survey indicated that it became much stronger. Two areas of widespread, concentrated tree damage were found. The first one was in the vicinity of Lounsberry Road NE and the Exeter Subdivision; which are north of Edwards Ferry Road and south of Battlefield Parkway NE. A townhome on Ginger Square NE had its siding and underlayment completely peeled off, exposing it's roof trusses. Many homes along Marshall Drive NE also had roofing damage, along with trees uprooted and large branches downed. One house had lawn furniture lifted and blown in the opposite direction of the way the trees were fallen and debris was plastered on cars and homes. Damage was noted spanning the 500 and 600 blocks of Marshall Drive NE, which supports the damage width estimate of 250 yards. The other area of concentrated wind damage was north of Battlefield Parkway NE, in and around the Fieldstone Apartment complex. Here, fifteen to twenty 1.5-2.0 foot diameter pines were uprooted. Of special note was a line of 5 large pine trees in the easternmost portion of the apartment complex which were uprooted and which fell onto two unoccupied vehicles. Several of these trees did fall in a convergent pattern. Additional large pine trees were uprooted along the US Route 15 Leesburg Bypass near its intersection with Battlefield Parkway NE. Analysis from TIAD radar showed velocity measurements up to 77 knots at approximately 210 feet above ground level as the tornado was in the vicinity of the Fieldstone Apartments. Taking into account some decrease in the wind's magnitude as it got closer to ground level, along with the damage indicated in and around the Fieldstone Apartments, corroborates estimated wind gusts of up to 85 mph. The NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office thanks the Loudoun County Office of Emergency Management with providing information supporting the storm survey. EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the following categories: EF0.........65 to 85 mph EF1.........86 to 110 mph EF2.........111 to 135 mph EF3.........136 to 165 mph EF4.........166 to 200 mph EF5.........>200 mph * The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS Storm Data.
  7. 18Z looks like a broken record! I have heard and seen the same thing again and again this year!
  8. If you have not heard.. Looks like this was by the Restore store in Loudoun. Near the Greenway Farm neighborhood was also mentioned. https://www.insidenova.com/headlines/possible-tornado-leaves-widespread-damage-in-leesburg-neighborhood/article_72723eaa-49b6-11ea-bebe-fbce646244de.html https://www.loudountimes.com/news/severe-weather-strikes-leesburg-loudoun-county/article_9fafaf86-49b8-11ea-aa0c-c367d9cf1d13.html
  9. See these two frames that show some kind of wind intensity! Wow!
  10. I dunno. I have to agree that this is not so true.. the more encouraging trends of the long-range seemed to have quickly diminished on models. If Euro said one thing, and the GFS the other, major caution should have been our bent. Within a few days of any favorable pattern things usually tilted to the correct forecast. We have not really been surprised by anything this year.. no carpets pulled out from under our feet.. it has been pretty quickly settled that the long range was going to crap well before it happened. I admit it, around Thanksgiving was my biggest let down. The long range looked great going into December, then it quickly turned to crap! And one thing I would say, when the long range shows a turn to warmer, probably need to believe it is going to happen... maybe delayed a few days. NOW, when it comes to predicting potential precipitation, they have been amazingly good, way far out! Sure we have some missed by hundreds of miles or so, but many times precipitation.. I have been super impressed, especially with small, almost unforeseen events, coming to fruition. That was a lot to say that I have been impressed this year! Not happy with the actual weather!
  11. Just seems like a fail after fail kind of winter! You would think something would line up! But it does not. Cold shot next week seems possible..
  12. Higher elevations are looking the right place. Unless we get some cold to somehow do some magic, they seem set for the best snow. Mixing seems possible to me in the heavier stuff at the start, but this needs help.
  13. Short Term Forecast National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 221 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020 VAZ039-051-251945- Madison-Culpeper- 221 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020 ...A SHOWER WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL MADISON AND SOUTHWESTERN CULPEPER COUNTIES... At 220 PM EST, a trained spotter reported a shower producing small hail was located near Madison. This shower is moving northeast at 15 mph. Locations impacted include... Brightwood, Fordsville, Oakpark and Leon.
  14. Something reminded me of that weather robot guy that used to post an Eastern weather forum where he will even put on the Persona that he was a robot making the forecast. Did anybody ever figure out who that was? It was the weirdest thing and I remember people getting really mad at it
  15. Something reminded me of that weather robot guy that used to post an Eastern weather forum where he will even put on the Persona that he was a robot making the forecast. Did anybody ever figure out who that was? It was the weirdest thing and I remember people getting really mad at it
  16. Something reminded me of that weather robot guy that used to post an Eastern weather forum where he will even put on the Persona that he was a robot making the forecast. Did anybody ever figure out who that was? It was the weirdest thing and I remember people getting really mad at it
  17. Some cold to go along with it would be nice... Maybe it is all we can expect.. that I believe
  18. When you get a slightly different algorithm, the amounts and location of the amounts shifts quite substantially. Well. For. People east of the Blue Ridge
  19. Well that was different. And it kind of sorta.. Well not really, looked like the cmc.. Well at least where it snowed. Little more interesting