midatlanticweather

Nadocast https://x.com/nadocast/status/1778082581541752878

Lots of graupel/snow here in Purcellville. Temp dropped to 38!

66 degrees!! It was almost 70 an hour ago. Low was 61! Hot for this time of year!

Good news is that the European computing power was increased and now runs at least an hour sooner

With all the squabbling going on I thought I would share these things somewhere: Things I think we know and should live by: * You cannot jinx with things by what you say or do. It is funny to see the superstitious amongst people who are science minded.. and it can be enjoyable! * Your gut feeling has nothing to do with reality * Saying absolutes in science is not scientific. We make educated guesses and test it over and over again. * Question everything, make good conclusions based on research, but be open to well thought out challenges * Even when being challenged by what seems stupid, and it seems ridiculous, do not let emotion override sound research. and always welcome challenges * Learn from everything.. that means examine it after it happens! Live, learn, grow!

I wish I had better understanding of the dynamics involved. Many times, we had bad luck! At times the temps were a few degrees off. The weird way the Nino activity worked this year was reminiscent of Nina at times. When we were really wet, the cold was not cold enough or not available at all. Lack of Negative NAO combined with the PNA pattern were obvious issues. I mean we know the reality of what transpired, but, as Bob noted, maybe we just got unlucky. If we had a few big systems hit when it was cold, it would have been good. NA snow cover shows it was not just a local issue! When the continent is low on snow cover, we should know we are going to be even more unlucky. I think there were many compounding issues. The additional obvious trend of the boundary being very warm the last several years is no help! I think the warm Atlantic and even the great lakes do not help us when we are marginal, but that maybe just chicken and egg discussion. What also sucked was the poor model outlooks that were usually false and ended up failing miserably! I will try and read the summary of all the pages in this thread, but I so appreciate the time and energy many put into pattern recognition and other factors. The passion and input are so well appreciated. The squabbling and frustration are painful, but, if we can agree that we are all trying to understand and grow in knowledge, it would be good. Personal attacks and stupid comments just are no fun. Emotion and pride make it worse, especially ignorant rants with limited support.

Just looking at the forecasts for some of the areas near Mammoth! INSANE! Here is the output from one of the plowing companies. LOL!

Had a 41mph sustained wind at 9:23pm! That is a good breeze! Obviously, we gusted much higher than that!

67.4 for a high! My yard is starting to green up in places that get the most sun. - Mowing will commence soon.

22.6 for the low.

Some of the surfaces have some black ice out there. I am just above freezing but obviously some spots are freezing. Slippery on a few spots on my driveway.

36 with wet snow flakes and some raindrops over the last hour in Purcellvillle

15.6"

So have the fails

Loud thunder out there! Rain is falling here in Purcellville. I am gonna say that was an erroneous snow report on mPing. I just did a rain report to set the record straight! LOL!

Another harbinger for bad winters and likely not a cause but a factor is the great lakes being ice free. If they are, I feel we can say it is a bad winter. There is some obvious correlation there. Warm lakes means warm east. I bet it also helps to screw things up more than we think. Probably just a coincidence

Think that was all she wrote!

Awesome snow falling in Purcellvillle right now

It has been snowing light to moderate. All grass and cars are white. Temp is 32.6 and do of 31. Heavier radar yellows about to come overhead