midatlanticweather

Another note, the storm is again changing characteristics related to which wave will do what. When things like this happen we know we do not have the final picture. I hope the final becomes a better one than worse one. As of now, we do not know anything. It seems like, no matter what, an area of snow will be possible in the region. Who gets what is completely unknown. Now I am just being captain obvious

This is exactly what I think, but I am always a Deb on complicated setups. I get that worried feeling that the wave snows south, blows up out at sea and curls back in for NE. Leaves us a hole. Maybe that curl back is a stretch but I had a moment thinking of December 2010, I think, with the big old hole over us. Painful

Saw the same but I like the word "Tick" better! In many ways I thought it looked the same. I did see the TPV being a bit different and little modification in the energy. Need some better people than me to do proper analysis! Will look forwards to the ensembles

Just need more precip and a wider precip shield! WHAT AM I TALKING ABOUT! This was awesome! Keep improving! Euro - get a clue and come back to the party please!

Is there model validation on specific ensembles? Like certain ones are more reliable than others? Just curious

5 day model losses storm rule? Weenie handbook item from long ago? But having it completely disappear is just so strange! Ensemble time! BUT this is disheartening to say the least

I bet everything speeds up and it is not a 24-hour event! LOL! These things always end up being quick even when modeled for a long time. Maybe you were being sarcastic.. I cannot think of on event that took so long.

The pattern did get better. We do not have ideal set ups ever now when we get close to an event. We do not need ideal.. We need cold and then a storm in the southern branch and something to lock the cold in place for the duration of the precipitation event. Keep it simple.. Look for the simple.. And the details will be cleared up when we approach. We do not do complicated well.. If it gets complicated bet in fail. As PSU has said, we always need luck. Sometimes the pattern makes it more likely we will get lucky. We want to see those features get better as we approach storm time.. If they step back on subsequent runs of models, you know your luck is likely to run out. Doesn't mean in the end you don't get lucky, but you better hedge your bets. I am being captain obvious here. Let's get the cold and the cutter off the table and see if some better stuff shows up. That is all we can do. The thing that seems certain for next week is colder air will be around

I agree. Just not seeing the organization and important features until. It is too late

24.4/21 - Still dropping

25/21 in Purcellville, VA

30.5 with dp 21. Temp dropped fast at sunset but stabilized in the last hour

Hit 42 for a high. Down to 36. Dp is 21

That is going to hurt.. Very tight gradient.. Agree totals are bonkers.

That was a huge precip nothing

Memory here, but I feel the Euro was late to the party a while back too and was warm. That was AGES ago now so I may be just wishcasting. BUT, that same storm did changeover and other models were colder.... so.. maybe not.. going to sleep a few hours

Well crap! CMC looks north as well. Well, let's hope it gets better tomorrow.

Looks like a follow-up will wash that away on Tuesday and flooding will be a concern! Going to be a wet set of systems back-to-back. Busy days ahead. Not too focused on that at this time, but something to watch soon after the snow fun

That was nice. Would like more juice but that looked pretty clean on the snow. Good trends

I really liked the CAD showing up. It seemed to shunt the low a bit south with the transfer. The edge of the snowline is always a concern. This was at least a tick in the better direction!

Thermals are going to be an issue with that track! Love the high numbers, not convinced this is a sloppy mess. Better than 12z

This is the best case scenario from what I think as well. Thump.. that will be more likely in your area than east of the Blueridge. Hoping for positive trends to offset the negatives today! But maybe we call all see a brief period of snow.

While I agree there is time to change, and I also thought it was a long shot from the beginning, the trends are not one model run or anything. We know it can turn favorable, but it is a rarity. CMC looks good but shifting, Euro has been saying this is not going to work, and now the GFS is telling us that this will not likely work out. I am up for a change, but in events we usually like to see things improving on every run to get me to a positive attitude about it turning favorable.. if that trend shows up, I will be fine with it! If this is a fail, thank goodness it is showing this 7 days out! The Lucy ball was pulled early!

Writing is on the wall. The trend continues to depress.. Unless we see another trend, I think we have to just accept it! Now looking for the ripple effects on the longer range.

Trends are not super friendly here! We shall see. That 50/50 is key (a myriad of ther things)! We are getting to a range where some better understanding of Thursday's low and the 50/50 interaction. It is all a delicate dance, and our feet keep getting stepped on in each run. I am a deb here, but that is what I am seeing. Does not mean it is correct. Just remember, PSU was fringed at one point! Now models are giving PA and the NE snow. Just an observation. The ensembles give me pause and some hope, but just not loving trends.