midatlanticweather

The nw shift better not get too aggressive

I say - we need a new thread! We gotta shake the bad wacky mojo and get some good stuff! Keep it clean - focused and snowy!

Ya! Mix to rain seems likely late in the week by the way it looks to me

Legit snow showers! Dusted everything!

Wanted to post this just - because it is ridiculous! LOL! @Ji what happened?

Let's keep increasing snowfall to the event! and not lose any!

GFS is looking warm. No good anchored cold. Cold will get eroded. This is not a good look to me.

Middle of the month. A lot of doom and gloom at times.. a lot of banter.. is it time for a new thread as this one is 134 pages deep?

This is quite painful to look at! LOL! @Ji - The too far north, south, east, west statement comes to mind! LOL!

Painfully cold out there! Ouch! 17.3 for the low. Currenyly 18.6 and a 3 degree wind chill... I had to take some trash down and it was COOOOOOLD! Still love it more than heat!

Snow is really coming down out here in Purcellville. I know it won't last too long, but driveway is now caving and it is legitimate visibility dropping snow!! Nice!

Nice snow band setting up out here in Western Loudoun and out to the west. I am on the fringe and it is snowing alright. Looks almost steady and a bit heavy just to my north and west

Hope it ramps up as we get closer.. we have a system and a wave.. be happy that it is still there

In all seriousness, is a minor event even possible Thursday late? I have heard whispers at one point. Just curious.

I have not heard @Ji pointing to the JMA either. I am ready for alignment of all the backup models to support a MECS

Would it though?

1.6 inches. Not bad.

This is really nice. Coming down at a good clip. Everything covered!

Watching a lot of the US for the potential of heavy snow! No bad comments!

A lot of snow not too far away!

I have mixed feelings on this. I do wish we had better models, but they are pretty dang amazing! The many variables that are challenges for storms makes the hunt and chase fun too.. the issue is, we do not bag many storms. It is the reality. BUT it is all a learning thing. The hunt, to me, is very exciting.. I love a good snow and I love watching it fall and the way it coats everything.... BUT IMMEDIATELY - I am checking models for the next system.. it is like crack! LOL!

When is the next window?

According to ChatGPT Kuchera ratios are used in meteorology to estimate snowfall amounts based on the temperature profile in the atmosphere. They provide a more accurate prediction of snow-to-liquid ratios compared to the standard 10:1 rule, which assumes 10 inches of snow for every inch of liquid water. Steps for Kuchera Ratio Calculations: Gather Atmospheric Data: Obtain vertical profiles of temperature and humidity from numerical weather models (e.g., GFS, ECMWF, NAM). This is often visualized in a Skew-T diagram. Identify Critical Layers: Look at the temperature profile throughout the atmosphere. Snowfall efficiency depends on whether temperatures are conducive to dendritic growth, typically between -12°C and -18°C. Check for layers above freezing, which could cause melting and affect snow ratios. Estimate Snow-to-Liquid Ratio: The Kuchera method calculates a dynamic snow-to-liquid ratio based on the temperature and saturation levels at various atmospheric layers. Ratios are higher (e.g., 15:1 or more) in colder, fluffier snow conditions and lower (e.g., 8:1 or less) in wetter snow. Calculate Liquid Precipitation Amount: Determine the total precipitation amount forecasted in liquid form (usually in inches). Apply Kuchera Ratios: Multiply the liquid precipitation forecast by the Kuchera snow ratio for each time or grid point to estimate total snowfall. Models often automate this step. Example: If a model predicts 1 inch of liquid equivalent precipitation: A Kuchera ratio of 12:1 gives 12 inches of snow. A ratio of 8:1 (wet snow) gives 8 inches. A ratio of 15:1 (light, fluffy snow) gives 15 inches. Kuchera ratios consider temperature dependencies, making them more reliable for variable snow conditions than static assumptions.

With this kind of setup, a correction north --- or south (more possible) could be seen! This looked pretty good! It gets all VA some love (except maybe far SE VA)!