midatlanticweather
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Everything posted by midatlanticweather
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12/15 Possible I81 event. First inch of the season out here?
midatlanticweather replied to clskinsfan's topic in Mid Atlantic
Mainly sleet and some mixed rain.. An occasional snowflake but that is less common now than about 30 minutes ago. 32.9 degrees -
Now you see it ---- Now we don't! Still cold... but really nothing but cold
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Some snowflakes in the air and cold for Christmas are all good to me! If it can be more... cool! I will watch and hope, but I will not count on anything!
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NE Maryland, pummeled! LOL! This solution was nice. I would enjoy it.
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Swing and a miss on 18z GFS
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swapping a high where a low was at 12z! LOL
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Maybe the AI was onto something??? LOL! What a crazy run!
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Op shows the lame old Great Lakes Low! That thing shows up whenever there seems to be a threat! LOL! I do not trust anything that far off, but it seems to always show itself when we see a southern piece of energy! LOL!
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1.38" here in Purcellvillle
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Interesting
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1.27 inches so far! Best rain in so very long!
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Serious question. A while back I felt the Euro was super strong in long range forecasting. When it showed stuff I felt pretty confident. Now both GFS and Euro seem less capable in the long range. Is this perception or real? Is it because we want much more specifics? It may be that the patterns I remember were easier to predict and the chaos the last several years have caused less confidence. Am I wrong? Probably. Short range, models have really gotten much better.. I think. Get to 5+ days and it is so inconsistent you can't rely on what we see at all.. Again, maybe it is due to so much recent instability
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Little interesting look on the GFS.... wonky! Sure that goes different later.
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Euro for the win. Lol
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Euro is bullish on rain.
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We all know.. But when they look good we comment.. When they look bad we comment. This is the same story every year.. People cancel winter, drool over weenie runs, complain about Lucy pulling the football. Then we have the self righteous telling us how to behave and getting all upset by banter.. It is the way it goes. I find good in it and it is a bit entertaining at times.. Yes, people go too far and many get way too emotionally attached, but it is a ride.
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And now for something completely different. LOL!
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From what I can see, GFS is not advertising a blowtorch, even if it is a bit above normal. Nothing super exciting and super cold or super warm. A few warmer days followed by near or slightly below. So, as said, it probably averages out above normal, but not as mild as I think it once looked. Maybe my interpretation is wrong.
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DT is also tooting the same thing.. not Aleets
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Went for a walk around 7am in mixed rain and snow. Temps were well above freezing. The path around the pond had icy spots and I took a spill. Ice was unnoticeable so I bit it hard.. Bruised knee and twisted back will tell me how bad things are soon. Anyways, it was not bad at all. Temps were good and winds were inconsistently breezy so it was not bad and the skies looked very cool.
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Snowing really well out here. Ground is whitening up and visibility is way down. It is legit!!
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The only consistency with these model runs is that they are consistently inconsistent! This run has quite a different look compared to the last!
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16.8 degree low was unexpected! Wow! 27.2 degrees now!
