midatlanticweather

GFS - Says - Let's do the same old GL low and not look good anymore! LOL! Lame year!

Ya.. that west coast look is crappy though! Sucks!

I was .. My breakfast was awesome! Finished it off with some Orange juice.. A big glass! It was a big finish!

Lame memories!

We all become manbabies when things breakdown! I am guilty as charged. I am going to avoid the forum until.... what the heck am I saying?! I will always visit quickly to see if there is something worth watching! LOL! But the meltdowns and bickering are just evidence of the condition!

32.2 / 31

Little sleet and light rain were mixed briefly here. Seems the precip is going to cut off. I mean like a sleet pellet every 10 to 20 seconds.. nothing exciting at all! 37 degrees

"Victory stripe.." love that! LOL!

THE GL low is infamous! It shows up and we all hope it is a fluke.. and it may be, except when it ruins our snow hopes!

As soon as it gets complicated, we have the "too many levers to pull" as @Bob Chill mentioned before. We are not in a great spot, and, if we know anything, usually trends like this are just the beginning. I mean, maybe just one run, but seriously, the way this winter has been, it is a sign of continuation of cuts to the north and west. There is really nothing holding the cold from escaping. Perfect timing has to be the case.. odds are against it

Go back to 2013 - 2014 for trends that moved south! It was a very odd year and we just seemed to be in the right place balancing cold and the SE Ridge. Rare and unlike anything I had ever seen!

Seems to have been the story this year though! Hopes in both ensembles and the ops pretty quickly slip and then the next threat becomes the focus.. rinse, repeat. Even a blind squirrel will occasionally find a nut, I just hope we get a good one before the year is done! I appreciate the response and get it, but it seems when things start getting worse as a trend, the trend only gets worse in subsequent runs. It is not a good year down this way!

I was just remembering January 25, 2000 - That was a fun ride! Second Guessing Mother Nature: Forecasting the Surprise Snow of January 2000 (nasa.gov)

We just have not come up good in the end.. no matter what the ops vs ensembles have shown. Just want to see some good runs stay good!

Man! We are really sucking on getting good patterns to pay off or be cold. WOW! GFS was a shit the blinds run. Every positive turned to negative. Call me captain obvious, but this is not a good look.

Got some light snow now in Purcellville too! YAY!

35/28.. Hoping to see some good flakes for a few minutes at least.

Bump

Went down to 23 last night. Up to 31 now. I would not be surprised for 5 minutes of pingers before the cold rain settles in. Blah humbug!

Why.. why why.. is it so warm! LOL! The track is not bad, but the warmth is annoying. Maybe can tick down on the temps a bit and be happier. GFS has been terrible, so I hope it still is, but we do know, we fail easily in these parts so that door is wide open, and we are likely to walk into the failure.

Ya. We will be hoping for the best here, but preparing for the worst. Pinning hopes on the NAM and a very marginal airmass. It will work out somewhere.. get a little elevation and you can start getting a bit more enthusiastic. I am not biting yet. I would think this will be less than 10:1 during the day. Snowfall accumulation should be reduced because it is the NAM, it is not 10:1, and we just are not super cold. NOW, we do have a good sun angle (had to say it!) so that at least is helpful, but falling at night would be better.

NAM brings the snow N&W areas! Just hoping trends continue and more get some snow love on all models.

There was one that has to be late January/early February that was out this way. I lived in Sterling and it started as a mix of sleet and snow, but evaporative cooling kicked in and turned me to snow.. not far down the road in Fairfax it turned over and I think nothing in DC. There was a playoff game on that day.. I cannot remember exact when, but it had to have been 1999.