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midatlanticweather

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Everything posted by midatlanticweather

  1. midatlanticweather
    Probably to trend worse. Terrible setup. The trend was a little less terrible but we need leaps better and the changes from here on out are likely to be warmer and to the north. I hope I am somehow wrong. This has always been unlikely and continues to show us how it can fail.
  2. midatlanticweather
  3. midatlanticweather
    What happened to the system!
  4. midatlanticweather
    This board is in true form!! It is what I love! The Ensemble looked pretty good. Nice to see. But the shredder has been very capable this fall of taking 1 to 3 inch rain storms and giving me a quarter inch as we got close. That will continue the way it looks
  5. midatlanticweather
    I have not looked! @dtk is the man on models. I had also reached out because I think people knock the 6z and 18z models like we should not concern ourselves with off run times. I think he debunked that myth a while back once better tools were put in place. I dunno. The Euro seems as unreliable as any other model can be these days. Good common sense and meteorology has to be used. This set up is so unique that I would be super cautious about getting my hopes up! But a fluke lucky event is possibly our better chances these days!
  6. midatlanticweather
    Seems so logical of a set up! I mean, it could happen. It likely will not! LOL! - Looks good now. I need the bullseye 7 days out though to feel more confident!
  7. midatlanticweather

    Hey - sorry to bug you, but you are the authority! Is it true (and I no longer think it is) that the 6z and 18z runs are less reliable that the 0Z and 12z for the GFS. I feel you squashed that concern a long while ago. I am asking because I still hear it! Like the old "Convective feedback" arguments! :) 

    Thanks!

     

    1. dtk

      dtk

      Sorry, I haven't logged on in a while. The 6z/18z runs are statistically indistinguishable than 0z/12z runs. That's not to say there aren't some differences in behavior for various cycles, especially regionally and for individual events, but the reasons for that are actually quite complicated (and not just a matter of with/without sondes). There is meaningful justification to state that 6z/18z is less reliable and 12z/00z.

      The main justification I can give is if that the 6z analysis didn't assimilate any data at all, a 120 hour forecast from that time would be identical to a 126 hour forecast at 0z.  I could go on and on about this, but I'll leave it there for now.

  8. midatlanticweather
  9. midatlanticweather
    I did not even post about Christmas like some did, or the favorable pattern finally showing up! I take no blame this time! OK - Edit: I did last week! That is true! Maybe that was the domino that led to this one.. I did mention favorable pattern
  10. midatlanticweather
    Luck! We always need luck! And more than ever before these days!
  11. midatlanticweather
    The winter of ever delays! It feels like this may the case. How about the 45 day Snow outlook.. I think maybe something is showing up on this in the southeast! We get that Nina split too! Painful. Reminds me or 2010 - 2011 season
  12. midatlanticweather
    Low of 19.5 degrees was so crip and refreshing! Seems the coldest it will be for at least a week or so.
  13. midatlanticweather
    61.3 degrees. Very nice outside. 0.26 inches of rain today.
  14. midatlanticweather
    Things don't look great in the mid range... And now I would not trust anything in the long range. Depressing to have models miss on what looked pretty consistent. I mean, it is guidance and weather is not something easy to predict. In the mid Atlantic the main prediction should be that it will probably not work out favorably.
  15. midatlanticweather
    I mean.. something tried to happen. Timing, luck, etc. Also, so different! The CAD at the start there was stout! Period between the 10th and 13th I guess remains interesting.
  16. midatlanticweather
    Kind of dried it up.. if it is not going to snow, fine with me. Things look different this run.
  17. midatlanticweather
    EPS says - maybe something. The boards are all kind of quiet or negative today as we realize that things are not as good looking as they once were. Sorry @Ji and everyone!
  18. midatlanticweather
    AHAHAHAHAHA! You posted too! Whose fault was it really?
  19. midatlanticweather
    Euro kind of saves the day. Fizzling out Energy does a Miller B - BUT, honestly, a non-pumped system spitting out a little snow is not bad. The trailer looks a bit warm and gets going later but is warm. Things not as great looking all around today as they were in previous days. Transitions are very hard for models to get right.. much less the pieces of energy and how they behave.
  20. midatlanticweather
  21. midatlanticweather
    Southern slide is so possible. Nothing more infuriating to me than it snowing south of me!
  22. midatlanticweather
  23. midatlanticweather
    I have been honing in on the many different people that have been honing in on something happening in December. I have heard: The 7th - 10th the 10th through the 12th the 15th through the 20th I MEAN COME ON! There is no window of opportunity here.. the windows have been removed and replaced with French doors that have been left wide open at this point. I gather a pattern with a lot of potential so models will be jumping like crazy. Any time I see strong Negative NAOs, and we have Nina, southern sliding disappointment always stays in the back of my mind. Too early to worry about details.
  24. midatlanticweather
    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=epsens&p=500h_anom-mean&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=
  25. midatlanticweather
    Follow up wave hope there! As long as the cold still gets here. It was looking different on the models!
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