midatlanticweather

This is the best case scenario from what I think as well. Thump.. that will be more likely in your area than east of the Blueridge. Hoping for positive trends to offset the negatives today! But maybe we call all see a brief period of snow.

While I agree there is time to change, and I also thought it was a long shot from the beginning, the trends are not one model run or anything. We know it can turn favorable, but it is a rarity. CMC looks good but shifting, Euro has been saying this is not going to work, and now the GFS is telling us that this will not likely work out. I am up for a change, but in events we usually like to see things improving on every run to get me to a positive attitude about it turning favorable.. if that trend shows up, I will be fine with it! If this is a fail, thank goodness it is showing this 7 days out! The Lucy ball was pulled early!

Writing is on the wall. The trend continues to depress.. Unless we see another trend, I think we have to just accept it! Now looking for the ripple effects on the longer range.

Trends are not super friendly here! We shall see. That 50/50 is key (a myriad of ther things)! We are getting to a range where some better understanding of Thursday's low and the 50/50 interaction. It is all a delicate dance, and our feet keep getting stepped on in each run. I am a deb here, but that is what I am seeing. Does not mean it is correct. Just remember, PSU was fringed at one point! Now models are giving PA and the NE snow. Just an observation. The ensembles give me pause and some hope, but just not loving trends.

Can totally see this ending up north. Seems typical

Thankful for the precip showing now. Just need to fix a few things so bigger things can happen

Not a great look. Some positive changes though. High up north is not great

We know it is fragile and will shift around a lot! It will be a week of happiness and Lucy calls! So, ya! Typical. But we see the shifting already! Nothing is a sure thing.. but some kind of storm seems likely. We shall see! Enthusiastic for now!

Ya.. PSU Fringed is a good sign to me. Let's worry if this is real or a mirage!

That model run was a bunch of crap! LOL! I think there is a lot of model confusion. I mean, it may be bad in the end, but it obviously has some work to do to figure out what is happening. I think this is a given from the board discussion, but nothing looks right! Ensembles may help

Guess I am not looking at the right stuff. Lol

Where did the parade of shortwaves go?

0z is kinda boring. Lol

Not buying it.. But it has a chance to get colder.... Or warmer. Lol. I would say it would be worth watching but the model consistency has been rough at the surface

I am confused by Pivotal's site in the range after Christmas - Looks interesting... pretty much wet.. just strange

I feel southern sliders are always a threat. Also, a too wrapped up system changing to rain. I will not be surprised by misses to the south even though I hate them the most. Still way off, but I even think some of the long range seasonal models were not as bullish on precipitation here. Glass half empty statement here

@Bob Chillis legend! Happy to see him!

Fringed out my way on the super long gfs! Lol.

Well.. YA! You had a even more specialness! Happy Anniversary (maybe a day early!)

14 years ago we were about to get a good one! I created this at the time. Lol

A little over an inch for Purcellville. Breezy and my Christmas lights have taken a hit. One strand so far, but that is over 1000 lights.

There were definitely models showing a favorable setup for Christmas week. That is delayed and the look now being advertised does not look like what the long range was showing. The long range also went very warm with pacific air overtaking all North America. So, yes, things did look bad for a bit and then improved. We are also still seeing changes far enough off that it could be changed again.

This post has me back to thinking we are seeing illusions on the long-range good looks. LOL! Need more luck than usual to get stuff to do what we need it to do these days! Thanks for the breakdown... now I will breakdown! LOL!

Ya.. looking at the long-range predictions, especially the Middle part of the Mid-Atlantic was showing near to below normal precipitation. The heavier stuff was southern VA and south or up in the NE. We do not need above normal precip to get big snows though. We just need the good timing when we get a storm and a more favorable setup to make the luck we always need more possible

A little taste of light snow and cold Temps. I would take any snow falling for the Christmas spirit. Things are shifting around for sure.