midatlanticweather

Roll that a day or two further and you see a transient cold! We have to see how it shakes out. Stuff in the long-range are always difficult

I can see clearly that there is nothing clear in the long range. I think we need to continue to focus on the upper patterns because that will dictate what we see at the surface. CALL ME CAPTAIN OBVIOUS! I just am stating, it will not be a clean transition so our daily rundown is likely to stir different outcomes.. but the -EPO seems pretty likely! That -NAO is key and I just want to see it hold.. If we get lucky like 2013, we will get small overrunners.. just hope we get the right side of the front and that it stays close enough to matter. As mentioned the WAR was SO important. But, I do think we had a few true storms that year, including a few larger systems. Not sure if it was due to a -NAO, phasing, or just transient 50/50.. The cold has to be available to tap though, no matter what, and I think we see that is possible... then the individual players will start to show. Somewhere in the thread Bob mentioned short leads to little events.. so I am just looking for the "ducks" to be on the pond and hope we end favorable.

Anyone seeing clearing skies for the meteor shower. I cannot see even 1 star

hmmmmm.. 2013 - 2014 redux??? Hope so!

I would have been so upset if that was snow. Ya, only .06 here

This is quite the little system heading this way!

There are some hefty amounts spit out by the NAM as well. Not believing it, but cold rain for sure. Probably should be in the digital snow thread. And the 3KM

25 last night! Loving the cold nights. Get that ground cold!

BWI: 34 DCA: 20 IAD: 37 RIC: 16 Tiebreaker (SBY or LYH): SBY: 7

Worth watching. Let's hope the skies are clear! https://www.skyandtelescope.com/astronomy-news/observing-news/intense-meteor-outburst-expected-alpha-monocerotids/

17.8 for the low in Purcellville. Will see if it gets colder. Impressive for the time of year

19.9 degrees. Lowest yet for the season for me

About to share the same. I like it! Maybe a great early year!

And Cohen weighs in.. but not much new information

I have radarscope tracking it.. Looks legit. Maybe a snowsquall warning will get issued.

13 - 14 was the best tracking year of my life. One of my favorite quotes from @Bob Chillthat year was that the atmosphere could fart and it would end up being snow. It was such a unique winter. I like the big ones too, but they come and go too fast. Having snow every 3 to 5 days, or at least something to track, was fun. One time when post storm depression did not have long because something was always on the horizon. 2002 - 2003 and 2009 - 2010 will always have special memories for the big ones. 2013 - 2014 was a special almost the whole winter.

Radar is doing something strange! Hard to see the snow showers with all the clutter. If that is all snow.. then woo hoo... but I know it isn't! Still seeing some showers around the area!

About to say the same thing!

Grabbed this again. Would need to dive deeper to understand how they made the conclusions.

Not sure if this is just an observation, or something that will help us for Winter

HM is thinking that even colder times ahead after the relax! Not much Meteorology added here, but he did predict early cold snaps, before Thanksgiving, and we got it!

Meanwhile, in Richmond!

Few flurries in Purcellville. Happy to see something!

Radar showing returns to my west. Anyone getting flurries towards Winchester?

Just another view of what has already been shared. Not much new here, except, I too am encouraged that things are not easily progressing to crazy ridges and warmth. @psuhoffman - that analysis you just shared on the mixed signals has been echoed by quite a few. I am very much in the camp of above normal snow, but really, it could be based on obvious items, and there are other things that are neither positive or negative. Just hopeful we get some southern stream moisture and some real bombs to make it a great winter... and who knows this year.. reminds me of when someone tries to diagnose an issue with a car and comes up with 40 options of what may be the cause.. no matter what happens, they get it right... LOL! Leaning better than normal winter!