midatlanticweather

Yeah.. I know! But we have been screwed like this before, so I cannot completely ignore it! I do agree that the details are far from being figured out.

Fringed - Jumped over - missed in Purcellville/Loudoun @Ji - #WhatTheHeck

High is weaker and slightly further north. Agreed. That is always the worry as we get closer, that the cold is not as strong or far enough south. But we are getting too specific. This will evolve.. I suspect some wintry weather.. how much is yet to be determined

This seems like a weenie run. Hate predicting a model though

But did not get double digit frozen (even though it looks like a sleet bomb after a bit of snow)

I remember that one as well! Like a beach scene with 5 inches of sleet. Was so lame!

Around 4am my temp rose sharply. It was 21 degrees and less than an hour later 33. Currently sitting at 35.

1.7" here in Purcellville. Beautiful out there!

ripping snow here now. need to measure, but over an inch for sure! Flakes are nice and big..

Now it is moderately snowing in Purcellville. Took a bit longer than I hoped! 36/30

Crazy.. I am a little east of you and fringed by that first band.. wow! I saw pictures of everything covered just west of Hillsboro! so close! Seems echos are picking up in my backyard now.

Wild clouds!!

My temp has risen. Was 36.5 two hours ago. 40.1 now! Dp is 21

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Moving into tomorrow, a compact shortwave will approach from the OH/TN Valleys, bringing a period of snow to the region. While the shortwave itself won't be large in areal extent, it will be a sharp feature, with a very short wavelength (which will lead to strong lift in the zone of differential cyclonic vorticity advection in advance of the wave). Given the short wavelength and the rapid movement of the shortwave, the areal extent of the precipitation is expected to be small, but the precipitation may be rather intense. Expect that snow at least reaches moderate intensity in most locations, and brief bursts of heavy snow can't be ruled out. Guidance has progressively trended heavier with the QPF over the last few model runs, and some models indicate 1 hourly QPF values in excess of one tenth of an inch will be possible across central Virginia late tomorrow morning. As a result, we've upped snow totals and raised Winter Weather Advisories across southwestern portions of the forecast area.

Happy new year

Would have said the same! If models are right, this has been the forecasted track consistently. Something unforeseen would need to disrupt this look to have it happen any other way!

GFS/FV3 always finds a way to give us a nugget of hope. Fools gold I say - But hey - here is what it says if it were 10:1

Measured ~1.5 inches before sleet/rain

Nice and heavy. Everything is covered.

For the GFS to be really wrong... Yes!

Methinks that is a little under done.. Lol

I think we can only focus on a short lead system (as Bob has hinted at) for anything. Patterns do not make snow. And Models are struggling mighty! I like the cooler air look and what we have had. Keep the cold, continue to build the NA snow pack, and eventually we luck out! But the model watching and pattern switch hopes are already making me tired this year! The Monday thing is now in the shorter range - we will get that in focus.. anything beyond is a major gamble, and, I would bet on a loss! For real, looking forward to the 12z for Monday focus. I guess we all know this, but snow and patterns on the long range keep us coming back for our "fix"! LOL!

Hasn't that been the trend? Pv expected to be deep and then retreats as the event gets close?