midatlanticweather

Purcellville with 1.59"...healthy but not crazy excessive like others

Wet! https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0856&yr=2020 Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0856 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 534 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 Areas affected...far eastern TN, western NC into western/central VA and southern MD Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 112228Z - 120425Z Summary...Flash flooding is expected from far eastern TN and western NC as well as western and central VA into southern MD through 04Z from an additional 2-4 inches of rain, on top of a broad 1-3 inches which has fallen over the past 12-24 hours. Discussion...22Z surface observations showed that a cold front extended from western PA into northwestern GA, or just west of the spine of the Appalachians. Moisture was highly anomalous for November to the east of the front, with precipitable water values ranging from 1.5 in western VA/NC to over 2 inches in central/southeastern VA. In addition, MUCAPE was estimated to be in the 500 to 1500 J/kg range across a broad section of the warm sector, with CAPE values having increased 200-400 J/kg across much of VA and MD over the past 3 hours via low level moisture transport according to the 21Z SPC mesoanalysis. Southwesterly 850 mb flow was observed in the 20-35 kt range from western NC into western/central VA via recent VAD wind plots. As the cold front continues eastward early tonight, broad low level directional confluence/speed convergence, extending from western NC into western/central VA and southern MD, will support an increase in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms. This will occur beneath strengthening upper level divergence and diffluence, located on the southern end of an upper level jet streak, with a peak magnitude of 150-170 kt in southern Quebec. 850-300 mb flow, a proxy for cell motions, is parallel to the axis of low level convergence, which will support repeating and brief training of cells at times. With the degree of moisture and instability in place, peak rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will be possible with a few locations picking up an additional 2-4 inches of rain by 04Z. Recent heavy rain over the past 12-24 hours has lowered flash flood guidance values across a large portion of the MPD threat area to 1 inch or less in 1 and 3 hours. Given the low flash flood guidance, flash flooding is considered likely. Otto ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...LWX...MRX...RNK... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38997703 38627659 38257660 37087900 36667996 36128119 35788239 35828262 36028268 36508197 37048115 37947971 38517804

Hit 77 for the 4th day in a row!

Up to 77 again here in Purcellville! Crazy streak.

Euro Seasonal is a Hot Mess

BWI: 17.2 DCA: 9.4 IAD: 21.6 RIC: 8.5 SBY: 7.1

32.2 in Purcellville for the low.

Not too bad in Purcellville. I was able to vote in about 5 minutes. There was supposedly a line at 6am. There were only about 1400 people left at my polling place left to vote (early voting must have really worked) and I was #143 at 7:30am. Get out and vote!

Had a low of 29.7.. Good freeze!

My weather station decided to have issues! Went out and did some tinkering so now I am measuring rain again, but missed all the morning amounts .

Agreed. The cooler air keeps looking delayed or very brief.

No idea if this will help us.. Too early to tell. But interesting.

But what does it (or could it) mean?

32.7 so far. Heavy frost this morning. Just wondering if we can end the growing season

34 degrees with frost this morning

If anyone dares put stock in Cohen https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

My Storm total on my weather station is exactly 2 inches at the moment! Just some drizzle possible that could add a little more.

1.33

Jebman is legendary on here!! I have almost started a Jebman Wikipedia entry specifically to highlight the famous Jebwalk. He is the most positive, over the top, excitable, enthusiastic person ever on Americanwx about snow. No one can hype real snow more than Jebman!!

Models laying down quite a bit of North American snow over the next two weeks.

WPC Bullish. NWS not so sure what to forecast so 30 to 40% chances showing up/

That Euro outlook is a Spring outlook - it may be winter months, but it looks warm for sure.

GFS looks like it wants to ramp up the snow in Siberia over the next two weeks. Let's see how it really goes.. SAI has not proven much help the last few years from what I can tell.