midatlanticweather

I was not speaking about the Euro.. it has had a craptastic year as well. Actually, most long ranges have been pretty sucky - except when they predict cutters with rain! LOL! As soon as the lock on that they seem to be right! But ya, it has been a rough year! Edit: Probably beat this dead horse to death BTW! Long ranges --> TAKE WITH CAUTION and low confidence.. snow is always hard, always take long range snow predictions with extreme low confidence and an attitude that MANY MANY THINGS can screw that up.. Take long range warmth and rain with somewhat higher confidence - usually easier to get right because it is easy to rain at this latitude!

There was a write up on it and they said it had some positives, but would be delayed due to noted biases like giving JI too much snow only to hear him complain about it taking it away! Actually, that was true of everyone! It is a weenie model and needs much work. Someone has to have its performance stats.. but I think it is pretty crappy in long range predictions.. if it were good in the long range this would be the best winter ever!

I think frozen is on the table as well.. love the High placement on the Euro - pattern has been pointing to a possible mixing mess! Lets get another on board before I have any confidence.. as a matter of fact, I am not really sold on the idea, I just like the Euro's look!

It has been a huge driver this year. I think that it has correlated so well to the forecast that it is being talked about by everyone. If another index was showing as strong a correlation it would be talked about as well. We all can learn though.. and the data and tools are there to help us! So, as long as people try and make informed comments, no problems from me! ]

7 days ago, snow was coming down and we were about to super freeze... today we are nice and warm.

68 here in Purcellville! Balmy out there!

Weather is freaking cool!

So the Snow in June Mountain has topped 130 inches since Saturday!

Thanks for the visit, but you should probably stay in your own playground for now! The guys here extensively look at models. You may be right, but saying your modelology makes you understand what will happen down here is not nearly as elaborate as what you read here. Now you should go back to your playground and let us concentrate on ours! Good luck!

Just wow! https://www.junemountain.com/winter/mountain-information/cams

Looks like 1.5" here... Beautiful out there!

I must remain pessimistic! In all reality, I was speaking of the GFS not showing enough promise for a lot of weenie posts. This did not reflect my feelings.. but in general, as excited as we are in the long run, when things look good, we seem to veer from the look. Ironically, when things have looked bad we have done better! I think the 10+ inches was when we thought the pattern was not yet ready to flip good. So it is typical odd winter where we luck into the better events. Honestly, Tuesday's front was a nice surprise! Today is great! My trust in the long range holding great is not strong this year because it has been a big let down! So, for now, things look interesting in the longer range.. and winter is not leaving, but I remain pessimistic

Few posts... Models confirm why... See ya 12z

-3.. Dp is -12... How low can she go!

-1 is the lowest so far

7/-9dp

7 degrees.. Dp is - 9...dry

That was really a fun squall line! Need about 10 hours of that!! Loved it!

Whiteout in Purcellville

SNOW SQUALL WARNING NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1113 AM EST WED JAN 30 2019 MDC013-021-031-043-VAC043-061-069-107-153-157-171-187-840-WVC003-031-037-301701- /O.NEW.KLWX.SQ.W.0005.190130T1613Z-190130T1745Z/ 1113 AM EST WED JAN 30 2019 Carroll County MD-Frederick County MD-Montgomery County MD-Washington County MD-Clarke County VA-Fauquier County VA-Frederick County VA-Loudoun County VA-Prince William County VA-Rappahannock County VA-Shenandoah County VA-Warren County VA-City of Winchester County VA-Berkeley County WV-Hardy County WV-Jefferson County WV- The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Snow Squall Warning for... Washington County in north central Maryland... Northwestern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Frederick County in north central Maryland... Northwestern Carroll County in north central Maryland... Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Northeastern Shenandoah County in northwestern Virginia... Frederick County in northwestern Virginia... Northwestern Fauquier County in northern Virginia... North central Rappahannock County in northwestern Virginia... Northwestern Prince William County in northern Virginia... Warren County in northwestern Virginia... Clarke County in northwestern Virginia... The City of Winchester in northwestern Virginia... Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... Eastern Hardy County in eastern West Virginia... Central Berkeley County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 1245 PM EST. * At 1113 AM EST, a dangerous snow squall was moving through west central Maryland, easternmost West Virginia, and northwestern Virginia, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...Whiteout conditions. Zero visibility in heavy snow and blowing snow. Wind gusts greater than 30 mph. SOURCE...Radar and webcam indicated. IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel. * For those driving on Interstate 70, interstate 81, US highway 15, and other high speed highways in the warning area, this is especially dangerous as visibility and temperatures will rapidly drop. Pavement may become rapidly icy from a small amount of snow accumulation. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... There is no safe place on a highway when a snow squall hits. Visibility and traction are immediately lost in whiteout conditions, making it difficult or impossible to slow down and avoid stopped vehicles. Delay travel or safely exit the highway before the snow squall arrives. LAT...LON 3877 7780 3888 7870 3972 7772 3972 7686 3877 7780

For some reason that link fails for me. There is a 2019 that seems to be the issue? https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0061.html works for me.

Snownado > Sharknado!

Hit 2.7 for a low!

2.7 for the final...