midatlanticweather

Great stat!

The NAM is a problem.. While I do not trust the NAM output for QPF amounts, I do trust it for keys to temp profiles (especially CAD) and low placement. We always have the "We got NAM'd" comments when the precip goes nuts! The key take away from this is, Does the temp profile support snow? I think @ers-wxman1 made great points! I just want to see better trends, but the trends of these 12z models could set the tone for the rest! We need to see the Bernie Rano windshield wiper effect start to go the other way! Otherwise, if it does creep back south and east, it has too far to swing!

No mixing yet, but when I look on the windshield there are little ice in the raindrops. Some of those drops are huge! A while to go before we see true slush balls. 37.8/37

Picture

I-95 is about the fall line. It is a bit west of that. You can wiki it. Great falls is a result of the falls, but it used to be a bit east of that

You do have access. Go to Pivotalweather.com

Come on 18z Euro.. Keep hope alive

Weenie run!!! WOOO!

The low looks to have bombed as it gets up in the favored spot!

Ya.. But it is trying to go boom off the coast... Which leads us to the other thread! Lol

Looks juiced on gfs as well. That looks like rain for us on that trajectory. Well, except north and west. Pretty good rates at the end

I feel this is a critical run because of Monday impacts. We should see a better idea of what happens Monday to set the stage for Wednesday.. But, if a rug can be pulled, football picked up, or whatever, this may give us some insight. Just my 2 cents.

18z EURO worth a look from anyone who has access?

Oh crap! It is Deep Thunder! Ya, not good! I did not know it was the same for some reason! LOL! Ya, tends to be crap.

Who has access to this model? Is it worth looking at?

Because we are map happy here, and somebody was asking for this earlier!

We all do. You know this.. Lol

I have to say it! INCOMING! Looks good!

Also makes sense when we get blocks! Things do not just ride out to sea without some chance of getting us involved. So true about the climo! The cold is just cold enough to snow, which means it is also just warm enough to not!

There are all KINDS of worries.. We are modeling way too far to get the specifics figured out. The jackpots and rain/snow lines can adjust radically.. we just are watching trends and excited when it snows in our back yards.. Details are coming! The consistency is a great sign! The pattern looks great! But we live in a fickle area that can break hearts quickly! But i get the concerns! We do not want any bad trends!

Basically, ideal.. too perfect! Would love it to be true though

I would need a map to approve as well! I will keep banter to a minimum! But you are on a roll today!

Let's see what Dr No says before a thread on Monday.

Total precip output was too low for my liking, but this definitely looked good!

About the way I feel when it snows! https://www.theburn.com/2020/12/11/ashburn-boy-really-really-excited-about-seasons-first-flurries