midatlanticweather

Where can we get the Euro Ens? I know they come out in about an hour, just wondering which services have them and the costs..

I was thinking the same thing! The whole set up for wave trains and Arctic air kind of fizzled out (to a degree (or maybe 20 degrees - LOL)!

Never really got in the fun out here in Purcellville this morning. Started hearing dripping and see we shot up to 35 degrees! The melt is on!

Wow, what an impressive streamer! I cannot lie, I would love it to expand (do not want to take anyone else's fun away) and get me in on the action! But happy for people getting their snow! Also happy to wake up for the third day to still have some snow falling and such a wintry feel out there! Wow!

Well, I am seeing the dryness set in here on Radar. Another inch on this system for me, but looks like pixies on the doorstep now. Maybe we will see some resurgence

@clskinsfan You seem to be doing really well on this wrap around! Wow! I see four more bands coming your way!

There is another storm that seems to show up around the 10th as well.. multiple models pointing to that timeframe!

That thing goes mega boom north of here! Blizzard for NE. Exact storm tracks are way too far off for fine details! Just fun to have something to watch. The War between the models is back!

How much snow did you get bro? Just under 3 inches. I mean, I liked it, love snow always, but I love it most when it is falling heavy and visibility is down.

Not that it is fun but we should do a post "storm" analysis on this. From suppression to 40 inches of digital snow and then the miss to the north when people and models were saying the block would keep it south.. This sucked. I don't want to get fooled again. I get Miller Bs screw us, but dang it man!

Definitely getting some enhancements here over the last hour. Also, a noted uptick in wind.. Not much, but when snowblowing it can start covering you in the snow you are blowing when it starts blowing. LOL!

Great! Now we have a storm classification system! Maybe I will slap that in a graphic for reference when we get closer to events! Good stuff @Bob Chill !

We were in a long lull, started sleeting, then flipped back to snow. Heavier snow now than in a long while.

No doubt, it was great hearing from you @Bob Chill. You have been missed, now this winter better bring you back sooner than later!

2.75" in Purcellville.. Snowing at about 0.02" per hour rates.

Not that I am an expert, but yes. Miller Bs that come from the west often reform too far north for our area. Lows out of the Gulf have all the moisture and strength they need without the new low becoming the driver to deliver the precipitation. The thing that can overcome the problem is blocking that can push these normally north of us storms underneath us, far enough to bring a healthy snow. Additionally, the storms get stuck from being able to go north so they stall and pour snow over the region. We see the typical issues with our latitude showing up now because the block to the north was not quite at the strength once modeled. The low is further north before it does the stall. Storm collapse appears more likely other than the front end thump or if you are northern Maryland and North and east.

Truth

Miller Bs screw issues showing their hand. Dry slot, slow transfer, slow wraparound. NE Maryland pummeled.

I remember worrying about suppression. Not the problem. Slipping away to the north is the problem.

The 1/25/2000 did that to me in Sterling. Huge long lull over top of me with heavy stuff west and east of there! Edit: Ninjad

Alright.. So how did we do upstairs. 700mb and 500mb.. Does this have more potential! Are we negative soon enough. Has it improved? And why doesn't the GFS like Winchester much! LOL! I mean that has been a persistent hole!

Will only post about this once. I like this for future reference. If we revisit the threads on big systems it is fun reading back about what the NWS was showing. We lose that on links over time. Just my 2 cents. - Back to the regular scheduled program!

OK - The Euro is King for recognition of trends and I think we have to give it a lot of stock.. more than the other models. It has the resolution we need and is pretty good at representing trends. The trend is a bleed south. We cannot discount it, despite the other models. My thinking (maybe it is weenie hope) is that the precip shield is a bit more narrow than it will end up being. If we are going to recover with it getting back to better locations, it needs to start today. Some things I think I am recapping here: This is not as easy of a set up as it appeared at one time (Not that it was ever easy! But there were some sweet cold smoke runs.. they are not there anymore) It is so hard to snow cleanly. There is luck always... sometimes we need more luck than others The trend this year is stringing out these systems as they approach and weakening, and suppression. The pattern kind of supporting some of the obvious - PNA issues, west coast is not great, speed of the system At some point this will stop bleeding south and I do think a small bump north (small) and increase in precip seems possible. I am thinking of how things ended up in NC yesterday I am certain there will be some serious failures and people missing big time in this set up. It is not the uniform look that we want We are in the game, and it is not over. I have on snow weenie glasses and keep thinking we will see an expansion of heavier snow to the north (not super north) into favored spots once this stops figuring out the placement of the CCB. Maybe I am being Mr Obvious.. Hedge low.. and hope we get a lot more!

This is probably not completely true, but is there a correlation to full moons and big storms? Maybe I am wrong, but they seem to happen close to each other. Maybe it is coincidence..