midatlanticweather

I like the look of the following week.. not sure how this is gonna turn out so far out there. Seems good and maybe prolonged... like seeing all the isobars to the Northeast and a high to the north.. will it work??

Stupid GL low and no blocking high..Let's see if it gets up to the 50/50 and sets us up for the next week

That was a little different run and look to the Low... still nothing locking cold and the GL interference. This keeps changing run to run - but not in our favor yet! Was hoping for a happy hour

If we see something, it will be because of something different with the GL Low. I have been "fearing" its interaction since things started going bad. If that is wrongly forecasted we have a shot at something. Nothing is easy on these set ups, so, as Bob says, if we accidentally get something to break our way, it will be really cool!

Hopefully we get something out of it and it isn't wasted. It is not perfect but close enough for some excitement.

Agree the CAD is missed. Timing looked different this run.

Oh.. there you are! The hated GL LOW

This is something that is inconclusive and I never think you would get anything out of it. I would link this to the ALAI (Animal Life Activity Index) where, just before a snow, there is a huge uptick in animals (mainly squirrels and deer) foraging for food.. also geese flying. I am certain there is a correlation, but no good evidence to back it up.

The tune has changed!

HM Tweets again reinforcing what is being discussed

Maybe this was already shared.. Was shocked to see

You know how to put things in a way that is very clear Bob! LOL! I still think the Pacific is more friendly this year.. as long as the AO can be neutral to favorable, we will get our chances. In a way, the relatively "close call" this weekend is yet another encouraging sign. Just need that zone to set up further south and get a bit colder for some fun. This is normal for a transition month. November has been a bonus as a cold month, and we want that to stick around.. but it just has not been the case so many years.. December is always a bonus month.. we get snow, we are happy and it adds to the season, but we can get past December and still do well. I do want some snow though! (don't we all) - I am always captain obvious. I am not alarmed and I am still optimistic we score something in December! Late December at this point. I am happy to be wrong and get it sooner though!

Nam still icing n&w of the city pretty well. Still overdone and Temps way too marginal with the precip rates

12z nam did it's sleetfest and many get ice NAM'd. Leaning rainy more than icy but we will see.

The FV3 is still the Oprah of snowstorms.. we have to see. The 500MB track shifting south on the GEFS is much more exciting to see. Can this be like 13/14 when storms looked north and came south? I know they did for so many other reasons that year, I just want snow!

13/14 had another wild pattern as I remember the best snow track shifting south. That was such a strange memory for that year. I think I remember one time the track went from Maine to south of us delivering central VA the goods. That was such a wild year, as many were good for our backyard.

Just keep really looking at science. True science questions everything. For people anywhere along the spectrum of belief, you must be willing to look honestly about the basis of the belief. If you question and grow either stronger or come to another belief, you are practicing science. If you are so dogmatic about your beliefs that you will not let them be challenged, you have moved away from science. Many have moved away from science, but don't stop researching and practicing science.

I never should doubt that you looked into the research. Thanks for the response. Nothing but respect for you Don

Did you see this article in response? https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerpielke/2019/11/15/no-hurricanes-are-not-bigger-stronger-and-more-dangerous/

Roll that a day or two further and you see a transient cold! We have to see how it shakes out. Stuff in the long-range are always difficult

I can see clearly that there is nothing clear in the long range. I think we need to continue to focus on the upper patterns because that will dictate what we see at the surface. CALL ME CAPTAIN OBVIOUS! I just am stating, it will not be a clean transition so our daily rundown is likely to stir different outcomes.. but the -EPO seems pretty likely! That -NAO is key and I just want to see it hold.. If we get lucky like 2013, we will get small overrunners.. just hope we get the right side of the front and that it stays close enough to matter. As mentioned the WAR was SO important. But, I do think we had a few true storms that year, including a few larger systems. Not sure if it was due to a -NAO, phasing, or just transient 50/50.. The cold has to be available to tap though, no matter what, and I think we see that is possible... then the individual players will start to show. Somewhere in the thread Bob mentioned short leads to little events.. so I am just looking for the "ducks" to be on the pond and hope we end favorable.

Anyone seeing clearing skies for the meteor shower. I cannot see even 1 star

hmmmmm.. 2013 - 2014 redux??? Hope so!

I would have been so upset if that was snow. Ya, only .06 here

This is quite the little system heading this way!