midatlanticweather

Now it is moderately snowing in Purcellville. Took a bit longer than I hoped! 36/30

Crazy.. I am a little east of you and fringed by that first band.. wow! I saw pictures of everything covered just west of Hillsboro! so close! Seems echos are picking up in my backyard now.

Wild clouds!!

My temp has risen. Was 36.5 two hours ago. 40.1 now! Dp is 21

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Moving into tomorrow, a compact shortwave will approach from the OH/TN Valleys, bringing a period of snow to the region. While the shortwave itself won't be large in areal extent, it will be a sharp feature, with a very short wavelength (which will lead to strong lift in the zone of differential cyclonic vorticity advection in advance of the wave). Given the short wavelength and the rapid movement of the shortwave, the areal extent of the precipitation is expected to be small, but the precipitation may be rather intense. Expect that snow at least reaches moderate intensity in most locations, and brief bursts of heavy snow can't be ruled out. Guidance has progressively trended heavier with the QPF over the last few model runs, and some models indicate 1 hourly QPF values in excess of one tenth of an inch will be possible across central Virginia late tomorrow morning. As a result, we've upped snow totals and raised Winter Weather Advisories across southwestern portions of the forecast area.

Happy new year

Would have said the same! If models are right, this has been the forecasted track consistently. Something unforeseen would need to disrupt this look to have it happen any other way!

GFS/FV3 always finds a way to give us a nugget of hope. Fools gold I say - But hey - here is what it says if it were 10:1

Measured ~1.5 inches before sleet/rain

Nice and heavy. Everything is covered.

For the GFS to be really wrong... Yes!

Methinks that is a little under done.. Lol

I think we can only focus on a short lead system (as Bob has hinted at) for anything. Patterns do not make snow. And Models are struggling mighty! I like the cooler air look and what we have had. Keep the cold, continue to build the NA snow pack, and eventually we luck out! But the model watching and pattern switch hopes are already making me tired this year! The Monday thing is now in the shorter range - we will get that in focus.. anything beyond is a major gamble, and, I would bet on a loss! For real, looking forward to the 12z for Monday focus. I guess we all know this, but snow and patterns on the long range keep us coming back for our "fix"! LOL!

Hasn't that been the trend? Pv expected to be deep and then retreats as the event gets close?

GFS/FV3 seems like a useless model, especially beyond day 2.. When is the last verification on this thing.. seems horrible..

Whaaat?

YA - Happy hour for the weekend of the 21st! All fantasy! I am dreaming of a White Christmas! That is classic.. way too good.. and every other powder dream has vanished. If we were just a day away! OH WELL!

Feel this story keeps repeating! Always the storm after the storm. But I would take it! Tuesday front thump would still be good though.

That was not the happy hour run we were looking for. I think even more phase ..

We are looking forward to many Jebwalks! Great hearing from you!

NWS a little more robust on thoughts in their latest updates further east. Think a bit less west.

Not much at all! That is why it is LUCK! And we have to get super lucky! Not impossible by the 9th of December to have been lucky! For small events (1 - 3 inches)

Yes.. Already seems to be showing that way. With no real block we just are hoping for timing. That rarely works out. Things aren't disastrous yet with Temps averaging below normal, but the long range is not behaving as models show it days in advance. Short leads will tell the tale.. Keep cold around and get into colder climo and I think we will luck out, but so far, luck has not been on our side.