midatlanticweather
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This sub-forum is pretty big! It takes a bit for people to adjust to Storm Mode... I think it was good timing because the amount of banter (including mine) gets crazy when a model run is good -- but ESPECIALLY if it is bad!
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TRUTH! Yesterday I started wondering if the system gets trapped after too far east and then slams SNE.. leaving the Dreaded donut hole like December 2011... I am haveing PTNSIMBYD - Post Traumatic No Storm IMBY Disorder when I think of that map.
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I like this post and agree with it. When we are jackpot on storms like this, I have a real concern of the north shift. I also worry that the Northern Stream interaction hoses the upper levels. If it is going to do this, maybe the upper level screw job only gets so far north.. if you are jackpot now, you have a huge chance of them screwing your back yard. I do not want to Jinx anything ( @Ji thinks I am the king of jinxing) but I think we *COULD* be in a great place. Additionally, I was unimpressed by the North and Northwestward extent of the moisture on the Euro.. that seemed to scream NW VA would be in a good spot.. but I know more physics that what I am looking at are involved.
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No. The storm went negative tilt in SC and was forecast to go out to sea. The 500mb low phased and caught it and had it ride up the coast. Forecasts went from sunny to winter storm warnings slowly northward from SC to MD. 10 to 20 inches fell.. All a surprise because models kept missing the phase and capture
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What a sucky set of models! If we are gonna see changes, it better start tonight!
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I am so wondering if this thing swings out, stalls, gets caught late and slams NE. Would be a double smack in the face! LOL!
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Is this the main site for the model? https://data1.gfdl.noaa.gov/fvGFS/fvGFS_products.php
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When do we see GEFS?
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OK - Have to say it- January 25, 2000 --- ok WEENIE WISHES
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In ways I feel this was better! The NE Squasher is really doing the job! I REALLY hope this is a bit overdone! Don't we all.
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Check those isobars!
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This is now consistent with EURO = FV3 is kind of becoming the odd one out! NOT GOOD!
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Go big or go home... I would take either
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Well crap! I am very interested in the EPS! Now, back to why I get paid!
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I became less skeptical! And boom! Rug is pulled!
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Good to start looking beyond the next 5 days! Shoot, in 2009 didn't we get "missed" to the south (LOL - still think we ended up with 6inches) before the Dec 19th HECS - this winter will be fun for sure.
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Did I miss a summary of the EPS? Oh wait - just looked.. now I know why! FV3! WOW! I was ready to get a fork out! I still have the utensil drawer open!
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Agree!
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That precip shield is suspect in that set-up... I guess it is possible. Quite honestly, now I am worried about this being too far north! LOL! Ya! I have to be skeptic!
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It was all the upstream stuff - suppression being less... great trend here! still barely in- but I think the northern extent of snow is erroneously getting cut off by GFS! That is a good track for NW VA!
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REVERSE PSYCHOLOGY worked! LOL! @Ji can tell you, as soon as I believe in a storm, it disintegrates! Will play skeptic until I am shoveling!
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Starting to get more excited about Wednesday than the weekend! All IMBY watching! LOL!
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I do not like it so far!
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He did not say that until all models (including his beloved Euro) had it come north!
