midatlanticweather

GFS/FV3 seems like a useless model, especially beyond day 2.. When is the last verification on this thing.. seems horrible..

Whaaat?

YA - Happy hour for the weekend of the 21st! All fantasy! I am dreaming of a White Christmas! That is classic.. way too good.. and every other powder dream has vanished. If we were just a day away! OH WELL!

Feel this story keeps repeating! Always the storm after the storm. But I would take it! Tuesday front thump would still be good though.

That was not the happy hour run we were looking for. I think even more phase ..

We are looking forward to many Jebwalks! Great hearing from you!

NWS a little more robust on thoughts in their latest updates further east. Think a bit less west.

Not much at all! That is why it is LUCK! And we have to get super lucky! Not impossible by the 9th of December to have been lucky! For small events (1 - 3 inches)

Yes.. Already seems to be showing that way. With no real block we just are hoping for timing. That rarely works out. Things aren't disastrous yet with Temps averaging below normal, but the long range is not behaving as models show it days in advance. Short leads will tell the tale.. Keep cold around and get into colder climo and I think we will luck out, but so far, luck has not been on our side.

I like the look of the following week.. not sure how this is gonna turn out so far out there. Seems good and maybe prolonged... like seeing all the isobars to the Northeast and a high to the north.. will it work??

Stupid GL low and no blocking high..Let's see if it gets up to the 50/50 and sets us up for the next week

That was a little different run and look to the Low... still nothing locking cold and the GL interference. This keeps changing run to run - but not in our favor yet! Was hoping for a happy hour

If we see something, it will be because of something different with the GL Low. I have been "fearing" its interaction since things started going bad. If that is wrongly forecasted we have a shot at something. Nothing is easy on these set ups, so, as Bob says, if we accidentally get something to break our way, it will be really cool!

Hopefully we get something out of it and it isn't wasted. It is not perfect but close enough for some excitement.

Agree the CAD is missed. Timing looked different this run.

Oh.. there you are! The hated GL LOW

This is something that is inconclusive and I never think you would get anything out of it. I would link this to the ALAI (Animal Life Activity Index) where, just before a snow, there is a huge uptick in animals (mainly squirrels and deer) foraging for food.. also geese flying. I am certain there is a correlation, but no good evidence to back it up.

The tune has changed!

HM Tweets again reinforcing what is being discussed

Maybe this was already shared.. Was shocked to see

You know how to put things in a way that is very clear Bob! LOL! I still think the Pacific is more friendly this year.. as long as the AO can be neutral to favorable, we will get our chances. In a way, the relatively "close call" this weekend is yet another encouraging sign. Just need that zone to set up further south and get a bit colder for some fun. This is normal for a transition month. November has been a bonus as a cold month, and we want that to stick around.. but it just has not been the case so many years.. December is always a bonus month.. we get snow, we are happy and it adds to the season, but we can get past December and still do well. I do want some snow though! (don't we all) - I am always captain obvious. I am not alarmed and I am still optimistic we score something in December! Late December at this point. I am happy to be wrong and get it sooner though!

Nam still icing n&w of the city pretty well. Still overdone and Temps way too marginal with the precip rates

12z nam did it's sleetfest and many get ice NAM'd. Leaning rainy more than icy but we will see.

The FV3 is still the Oprah of snowstorms.. we have to see. The 500MB track shifting south on the GEFS is much more exciting to see. Can this be like 13/14 when storms looked north and came south? I know they did for so many other reasons that year, I just want snow!

13/14 had another wild pattern as I remember the best snow track shifting south. That was such a strange memory for that year. I think I remember one time the track went from Maine to south of us delivering central VA the goods. That was such a wild year, as many were good for our backyard.