Southern Poconos might be in trouble. I hope down here we stay too warm-I don't do ice!
Based on the latest forecast some record highs will be challenged
Friday and this warmth will linger for a time Friday night. Now for
the more challenging part of the forecast, ice potential. The model
guidance overall shows colder low-level air advecting southeastward
later Friday night as a strengthening baroclinic zone is on the
move. Some guidance is much more robust with this than others,
however the initial push of colder air is forecast to be shallow
with warmer air aloft taking longer to cool. This sets the stage for
freezing rain and/or sleet for portions of eastern PA and
northwestern NJ. Of particular concern is the southern Poconos into
far northwestern NJ where cold low-level air could result in a
decent amount of icing. Portions of the southern Poconos could see
ice accumulations of up to one-quarter of an inch. This however
could be more sleet if the low-level cold layer ends up being a
little deeper. As of now, we are coming up with more freezing rain
but did include a mention of sleet. This changeover occurs after
midnight Friday night and especially closer to daybreak Saturday.
Temperatures should be the warmest in the very early morning hours
(or just after midnight in some cases) then temperatures fall as the
low-level cold air advection surges southeastward. The southern and
eastern extent of this will depend on the speed of the surface low.
The overall precipitation should be ending in the morning with the
bulk of the comma-head precipitation shifting to our northwest and
north. It will be much colder Saturday night, with wind chills
down to around -10F in portions of the southern Poconos.