jaydreb

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About jaydreb

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KIAD
  • Location:
    North Arlington, VA

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  1. EPS has red/orange over Greenland from Hour 144 thru the end of the run. This can’t be a bad thing.
  2. Thanks for writing up your thoughts. The biggest threat is probably simply having bad luck. It’s one thing to try and predict whether we will have a favorable/unfavorable pattern. But trying to guess something as chaotic as snowfall is something else entirely. We could have average snowfall in a bad pattern. We could have below avergae snowfall in a good pattern. Etc, etc. Quite often whether we hit climo depends on whether one particular storm lines up at the right time. Like last year for example. I had about 20” of snow for the season, which is right around climo for me. But half of that came from one storm. Take away that storm and I’m left with a crappy, sub-climo winter. Give me the 12/9 storm (which I missed) and suddenly I have a 30” winter in the same middling pattern. We need to have a workable pattern, but we also need to cash in one or two times when we do and that takes luck. I guess the better the pattern, the more opportunities we have to score and the less likely we are to whiff on all of them.
  3. First flakes in N. Arlington!
  4. Lol. We’re getting into shape for the winter! The run wasn’t that far off from giving something decent though if we set our bar at just seeing flakes from the sky.
  5. Happy hour GFS not going to make many friends south of Jackpotville. Time to open up the Panic Room? Thankfully this is preseason so I’m sure we’ll all react rationally.
  6. Area wide first flakes is a reasonable goal. Anything more is just icing on the cake.
  7. 0z CMC also a nice hit for next Tuesday. We’re within 10 days!
  8. 0z GFS brings back the snow for next Tuesday.
  9. Oy, an early start to the madness this year. Better hurry and get that Panic Room opened.
  10. A second line of storms moving through N. Arlington. Much stronger winds than the first.
  11. Got it. I don’t see signatures on mobile.
  12. Lol. Is the storm done here?
  13. Oh boy, must be close to showtime if Bob is here. Great to have you posting @Bob Chill!