Major Hurricane Melissa - 892mb - 185mph

[Coach McGuirk]

That is insane. Cat 5.

[hlcater]

 

One thing I want to comment on here is that the instability of the eye/trochoidal wobbling that was present earlier now no longer is. The eye has warmed, become more stable, and is now definitively moving northeast towards Jamaica as a steady state or strengthening sub-910mb storm. Terrifying stuff unfolding here.

 

 

[ThomeWx]

w.r.t. a merger EWRC occuring today, this may have been one with one of the recent HH flights. Based on the quick nature, and steady state/slightly higher pressures after this morning, that's what I'd expect it to be. 

[Snowlover11]

Absolutely insane IR currently.

[MANDA]

West Pac material here.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_MESO1/loop180i.html

[WolfStock1]

5 minutes ago, MANDA said:

West Pac material here.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_MESO1/loop180i.html

 

Wow.   Just... wow.

One telling thing - put your mouse in the center of the eye at the beginning of the sequence, and watch what happens by the end.

Ruh roh Shaggy.

What comes to mind is that scene near the end of Raiders of the Lost Ark - where Belloch watches what's unfolding and declares "It's beautiful!!!".... right before his face gets ripped off.

[WxWatcher007]

Dropsonde of 903mb

[WeatherShak]

[Newman]

11:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 27
Location: 16.6°N 78.5°W
Moving: NNE at 2 mph
Min pressure: 903 mb
Max sustained: 175 mph

[dan11295]

#9 all time in Atlantic Basin by pressure

[WxWatcher007]

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025
 
Both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been
investigating Melissa this evening.  They found that the system
is maintaining category 5 intensity with the central pressure near
903 mb and peak 700 mb flight-level and tail Doppler radar winds
supporting 150 kt for the current intensity.  The hurricane
continues to exhibit a well-defined eye about 10 n mi in diameter
embedded within extremely cold cloud tops to near -90 deg C.
Upper-level outflow remains well defined over the system.  Although
such intense tropical cyclones typically undergo an eyewall
replacement, radar observations from Jamaica do not show this
occurring thus far.
 
After remaining nearly stationary over the past few hours, Melissa 
now appears to be moving slowly north-northeastward with an initial 
motion estimate of around 020/02 kt.  During the next few days, a 
mid-tropospheric trough is forecast to deepen near the southeastern 
U.S. coast.  This should result in Melissa moving 
north-northeastward to northeastward with increasing forward speed 
through the forecast period.  The official forecast is similar to 
the previous one and also close the tightly-clustered consensus and 
Google DeepMind guidance.  The only significant difference in the 
track forecast compared to earlier today is a slower motion during 
the first couple of days, which delays the expected arrival of the 
core of Melissa over Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern or 
Central Bahamas.
 
Some fluctuations in intensity could still occur during the short
period before Melissa reaches Jamaica.  The primary influence on
the hurricane's intensity during the next 36 hours will be the
interaction with land.  Some weakening is anticipated after the
system moves over Jamaica and eastern Cuba.  More substantial
weakening is likely after the system moves past Cuba and over the
southwestern Atlantic, where the vertical wind shear is likely to
increase significantly.  The official intensity forecast is close
to the latest LGEM guidance.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Jamaica: Remain in your safe shelter. Catastrophic flash flooding
and numerous landslides are expected through Tuesday. The eyewall’s
destructive winds may cause total structural failure, particularly
in higher elevations, leading to widespread infrastructural damage,
prolonged power and communication outages, and isolated communities.
Along the southern coast, life-threatening storm surge and damaging
waves are anticipated through Tuesday. Failure to take immediate
action may result in serious injury or significant loss of life.
 
2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic:  Catastrophic flash flooding
and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti and southern
portions of the Dominican Republic through midweek.  In Haiti,
extensive infrastructural damage and isolation of communities is
likely. Tropical storm conditions are expected late Tuesday and
Wednesday.
 
3. Eastern Cuba:  Heavy rainfall with life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides is expected to begin shortly.
Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are expected late
Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Preparations should be rushed to
completion.
 
4. Southeast and Central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane
conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of the southeast and central Bahamas on
Wednesday. Residents should follow advice given by local officials
and be sure to have preparations complete by Tuesday night.
Tropical storm conditions, heavy rains, and a significant storm
surge is expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0300Z 16.6N  78.5W  150 KT 175 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 17.5N  78.3W  150 KT 175 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 18.8N  77.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 20.7N  76.0W   90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
 48H  30/0000Z 23.0N  74.3W   85 KT 100 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  30/1200Z 25.8N  72.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  31/0000Z 29.8N  68.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  01/0000Z 38.9N  56.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  02/0000Z 47.5N  40.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

[OrangeCTWX]

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, Wannabehippie said:

Absolute buzz saw right now.

 

Looks like you can see rising temps indicators down thru the eyewall ?

[Joe4alb]

Typhoon Haiyan & Hurricane Melissa

[Newman]

What looks like the coldest cloud tops we've seen yet wrapping around the southern CDO right now. Probably -95°C, maybe colder.

[Boston Bulldog]

9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Looks like you can see rising temps indicators down thru the eyewall ?

Yep, extreme stadium effect

[TriPol]

Let’s thank those hurricane hunters who are risking their lives by flying into the hurricane without being paid.

[Windspeed]

I think we might get one more pass NW to SE before they fly back to staging. The last dropsonde was 903 mb, which, based on trends and ongoing satellite appearance, is kind of critical here. I don't think Melissa has leveled off. It is unfortunate that we may not be at peak yet, and that may still occur between now and landfall.

[Alfoman]

I've been tracking hurricanes for two decades and nothing in the Atlantic has come close to the perfection, meteorologically speaking, that Melissa is achieving tonight. Absolute textbook steam engine...no words.  

[WxWatcher007]

For us old timers

[kat5hurricane]

It looks like it's actually expanding as it approaches Jamaica, fascinating and frightening all at once.

[Boston Bulldog]

Equally concerning right now is the massive convective feeder band that is blowing up to the NE of the inner core. This is a firehose of moisture flowing into the high terrain of Jamaica now, and is the commencement of what will be a catastrophic flooding event across Eastern Jamaica.

Roads across the island will become impassible across even the eastern portion of island. The few remaining emergency services in the east will be entirely unable to reach the unimaginible damage in the west. This has the look and feel of Maria in PR all over again, perhaps to an even more acute degree. There will be portions of the island in desperate situations that will be cut off from the outside world for weeks.

[Roger Smith]

This may be how the Great Red Spot formed.

[hlcater]

Regarding EWRC: Interested to see if that large area of subsidence between the core and the feeder bands acts to delay formation and consolidation of that outer band into a secondary eyewall.

[Nibor]

Stall to wobble north.

[Windspeed]

One final pass. Looks like it's going to be a N to S penetration before heading back to base.

[Floydbuster]

 

[WxWatcher007]

Latest sonde: 902mb w/ 22kt wind. Melissa is on the cusp of going sub 900mb.

[WxWatcher007]

[hawkeye_wx]

Ugh.... I was hoping for 899 mb on this final recon pass.  The FL wind is also 165 kts now.